Bob Sparks
Politicians and pundits either use or lament the findings of PolitiFact. Mostly True, Mostly False or even Pants on Fire is content for either a positive or a negative ad.
Who among us knew that Mark Twain was an inspiration for PolitiFact? After all, wasn’t it he who uttered the famous line about “lies, damn lies and statistics”?
Actually, the writer and PolitiFact likely would have butted heads in the 1800s were he to be asked his name and responded “Mark Twain.”
PolitiFact would have looked into this and ruled: “His official name, as printed on a government document, was Samuel Langhorne Clemens. In Twain’s defense, he does use ‘Mark Twain’ when writing about riverboats, Huckleberrys, Connecticut Yankees and other such things. Therefore, our ruling: Mostly False.”
The vital statistics would back up PolitiFact, but the real truth came in what people knew from their own eyes and ears: He was Mark Twain. The point to this story can be found in the word “truth.”
People can hear all of the facts and figures they want. Some will be absorbed, but perceptions or gut feelings are often the factors that go into someone’s decision to vote for or against a candidate.
The election for governor is just 14 months away and there will be plenty of opportunities to change or solidify those perceptions and feelings.
Gov. Rick Scott seeks re-election touting statistics that point to an economic turnaround in the state. Unemployment is down to 7.1 percent after reaching a peak of 12 percent in late 2010. He promised 700,000 jobs in seven years with the current number standing at nearly 350,000 well into the third year.
PolitiFact has long been underwhelmed with the governor’s statements in this area. They have looked at his jobs promise nine times since 2011. On one occasion, the headline was positive: “Florida adds 10,100 jobs in February.” The other eight all had less than positive headlines.
Neither PolitiFact nor any editorial determines whether people like the governor or his policies. To win, it will be up to him and his campaign to continue making his case and sell Floridians on why four more years will make their lives better and that he is in touch with their needs and desires.
The same is true for Scott’s opponent, whomever that may be. Only state Sen. Nan Rich has announced while others are still looking at their cards. The elephant, or former elephant, in the room is Scott’s predecessor, former Gov. Charlie Crist, who is widely expected to run and is widely known.
Without question, Scott believes Crist will be his opponent. So does the Republican Party of Florida. Multiple fundraising solicitations have hit Republican mailboxes featuring the famous Crist/Obama “hug” prominently on the envelope. The party regularly distributes “This Day in Crist-ory” online.
(Full disclosure: I was a member of Crist’s staff for four years.)
Scott is using statistics to criticize Crist, without naming him, by citing the state of the Florida economy and the high unemployment rate when Scott took office in January 2011. Scott’s statistics are accurate.
Crist has said in the past that the actions he took, as well as those of the Legislature, propped up education and lessened the pain of Floridians, especially seniors and the most vulnerable, during a global recession.
For instance, by accepting money from the federal stimulus, a highly unpopular measure in GOP circles, Crist claimed in 2010 that nearly 20,000 education jobs and 60,000 police and firefighter jobs were saved in one quarter.
PolitiFact gave Crist a “Barely True” rating by agreeing with the educator job claims and ruling the stimulus “benefitted 48,000 other Floridians,” but the statistics could not prove police and firefighter jobs were the lion’s share of the beneficiaries.
That being said, should he run, Crist and his campaign will portray him as a public servant, not a policy wonk. It will be about the people.
Both men have earned True, Mostly True and Half True ratings well over 60 percent of the time, which is not bad. If this matchup happens, the winner will not be determined by statistics and rulings involving flaming trousers. In the end, the masses will vote on what they see and feel based on what they already know.
There is plenty of time to shape opinion.
