Bob Sparks: Poll shows presidential race slowly starting to take shape

Polling for the 2016 presidential campaign is a political scientist’s dream. It is not too bad for pundits, either. There is something in it for everyone.

The Quinnipiac University poll released on Thursday is the latest example. The poll reaffirms that Donald Trump still polls the highest in some areas and the lowest in others. The same is true for Hillary Clinton.

It also shows that support is growing for a core group of GOP candidates at the expense of several other low-polling Republicans.

Trump leads the field with 25 percent followed by Dr. Ben Carson with 17, Carly Fiorina with 12, Jeb Bush with 10, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio with 9 and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz with 7. Of the remaining 9 candidates, no other Republican polled above two percent, while four of them received less than one percent support.

The survey was taken before Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker pulled out of the race. He was likely seeing similar numbers and made his decision. More are likely to follow sooner rather than later.

While Trump receives the largest plurality of support, he also pulls in the highest negatives. A whopping 29 percent say they would “never” vote for him. Jeb Bush received the same response among 16 percent of respondents, 15 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul and 11 percent for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. The poll indicated only 3 percent, the lowest figures, said that about Carson and Rubio.

Hillary Clinton leads Democrats with 43 percent while U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders comes in at 25 and unannounced Vice President Joe Biden polled at 18 percent. Clinton, at 11 percent, had the highest number of responses saying they would “never” vote for her.

Like the Republicans, support is coalescing around these three candidates. The remaining four announced Democrats polled at less than one percent.

The excitement, or lack thereof, for either of the front runners, is underplayed by most pundits. Yes, Trump continues to lead with his insurgency candidacy with 25 percent, which means three quarters of Republicans are looking for someone else.

Clinton’s days of 40-point leads are gone and with her 43 percent support, it means that 57 percent want someone other than the “inevitable” nominee. Clinton also fares poorly against Republicans, losing head-to-head matchups with Bush, Carson and Fiorina, but defeating Trump.

Biden is tied with Carson, but comes out on top against Fiorina and Bush as well as Trump by double digits. Sanders beats Trump, but is tied with Bush, loses narrowly to Fiorina and loses by double digits to Carson.

It is still difficult to imagine someone with Trump’s 36 percent approval rating and 57 percent disapproval continuing to stay at the top. But who predicted he would last this long?

These numbers just do not point to someone in position to win an election. Carson is the top Republican at 48 percent favorability.

Hillary Clinton sits in a similar position. Her 41 percent favorable and 55 percent unfavorable must have senior Democrats frantic. Biden is the top Democrat at 50 percent. Is this what shoves him into the race?

Here are some Florida takeaways from this poll. First, Rubio has some confirmation that the debates and his ability to communicate in general are doing him a lot of good. If you are in the top five on the positive side and at the bottom of the “never vote for” category, something good is happening.

On the other hand, Bush still has a conservative story to tell and those who hear it are impressed. Tell the Florida Democrats that Bush governed as a liberal and see the reaction. He has the funds to tell his story and change perceptions.

The Florida primary is going to be a big deal on March 15. Look for both to be solidly in the top tier when that day comes.

As for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton is no longer inevitable. If Biden gets in, both parties could provide the necessary momentum for their eventual nominee.

Beware of the Ides of March.

Bob Sparks is a business and political consultant based in Tallahassee. Column courtesy of Context Florida.