A.G. Gancarski
We are just hours away from the final Jacksonville mayoral debate preceding the First Election, to be held at Jacksonville University and televised at 8 p.m. on WJXT-TV. It’s the only debate to include all four candidates: Omega Allen, Bill Bishop, Lenny Curry, and Mayor Alvin Brown. For at least two of the candidates, it’s their final chance to make their cases to Jacksonville voters.
What should viewers expect? Rick Mullaney — a veteran of three administrations in Jacksonville City Hall and now director of JU’s Public Policy Institute — tells WJXT that voters can expect to “hear directly from those four candidates about the issues facing the future of Jacksonville, the development of the shipyards, the port international trade, pension reform, public safety, and more.”
The issues have been debated at forums and the first debate, of course, so one wonders whether there will be much new ground covered, or if this second debate’s effect will be more like that of a closing argument.
Each candidate seems to have different expectations for the night. This is Allen’s opportunity to introduce herself to Jacksonville voters, many not knowing who. For Bishop, meanwhile, it’s an opportunity to make the case that, despite a fundraising disadvantage, he’s the candidate bringing the most to the table.
For the two front runners — Brown and Curry — expectations are different. If the first debate is any indication, both candidates will stay on message as much as they can, and avoid potential gaffes of the sort that Bishop and Allen may want to provoke.
This debate presents a point of demarcation in the race, especially given expectations that the second phase of this election, headed from March 25 to the May runoff election, is likely going to contain more national level agitation. Republicans and Democrats alike see this off-year election as a rehearsal for the inevitable drama of the 2016 presidential race.
As Dave Weigel observed in an excellent piece for Bloomberg:
Curry is a combatant in 2016’s first skirmish between the Clintons and the Bushes. Neither man would call it that, and the campaign is turning on the familiar topics of jobs (36,000 new ones since Brown took office) and crime (down since 2011, though the outgoing sheriff has endorsed Curry). Yet Brian Swensen, Curry’s campaign manager, is among the people who see this “a bellwether for 2016.” The Florida Democrats and Republican Party of Florida have spent a combined $3 million on the race. Curry has kept pace with Brown’s fundraising, calling in every favor he earned as chairman.
Of course, Weigel thinks other issues will emerge as important factors in this race beyond the partisan back and forth, including the demographic future of the “Bold New City of the South.” Time will tell on that one. Leading up to the May election, a reasonable expectation is that a lot of outsiders will be brought in to work.
Looking at early voting totals, there are encouraging signs for the incumbent. Democrats, as of this writing, have more than a 1,000 vote lead on Republicans. If party identification holds, Brown could be close to 50% in the election next week.
