Guest AuthorThe GOP candidates are now sprinting to Super Tuesday. Donald Trump has the momentum from victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.
However, this is a big contest and no primary should be taken for granted. Trump also has the advantage of holding good polling numbers going into Tuesday’s elections.
The Super Tuesday voting includes: Alabama, Alaskan caucuses, Arkansas, Colorado caucuses, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming caucuses.
In looking over the latest polls, as maintained by Real Clear Politics, here is where the candidates stand:
ALABAMA – 50 delegates
+21 – Trump
Note: Alabama has not conducted a reliable poll since August.
Presumed winner: Trump
ALASKA – 28 delegates
28% – Trump
24% – Cruz
09% – Carson
Presumed winner: Trump
ARKANSAS – 40 delegates
27% – Cruz
23% – Trump
23% – Rubio
Presumed winner: Cruz
COLORADO – 37 delegates
+6 – Carson
Note: Colorado has not conducted a reliable poll since November.
Presumed winner: Unknown
GEORGIA – 76 delegates
34.7% – Trump
23.7% – Cruz
14.7% – Rubio
Presumed winner: Trump
MASSACHUSETTS – 42 delegates
41.0% – Trump
17.0% – Rubio
10.0% – Cruz
Presumed winner: Trump
MINNESOTA – 38 delegates
20.7% – Trump
14.7% – Rubio
13.7% – Carson
Presumed winner: Trump
OKLAHOMA – 43 delegates
32.5% – Trump
25.0% – Cruz
15.5% – Rubio
Presumed winner: Trump
TENNESSEE – 58 delegates
+4 – Trump
Note: Tennessee has not conducted a reliable poll since November.
Presumed winner: Unknown
TEXAS (Sen. Cruz’s home state) – 172 delegates
37.3% – Cruz
28.0% – Trump
11.7% – Rubio
Presumed winner: Cruz
VERMONT – 16 delegates
32.0% – Trump
17.0% – Rubio
11.0% – Cruz
Presumed winner: Trump
VIRGINIA – 49 delegates
28% – Trump
22% – Rubio
19% – Cruz
Presumed winner: Trump
WYOMING – 29 delegates
Note: Wyoming has not conducted a reliable poll since July.
Presumed winner: Unknown
So far, all of the primaries have attracted record voters, thanks in large part to Trump’s popularity. If this continues through Super Tuesday, he may become unstoppable.
The real prize on Super Tuesday is Texas with 172 delegates. This is Sen. Ted Cruz’s home state, but he may not have a lock on it.
With his weak showing in Nevada and the recent firing of his communications director for fraudulent statements about the other candidates, the Cruz campaign appears to be running out of steam while Marco Rubio is on the rise.
All of this might cost Cruz his home state which may very well go to Trump. It is entirely possible Cruz may come up empty on Super Tuesday while Rubio hangs on and Trump corners the market.
In looking over the delegate count, it is possible Trump may win as many as 300-plus delegates following Super Tuesday. Cruz may win up to 200-plus, assuming he wins Arkansas and Texas.
After Super Tuesday, the next two important dates are:
MARCH 8
MICHIGAN – 59 delegates
33.7% – Trump
13.0% – Kasich
12.7% – Cruz
Presumed winner: Trump
MARCH 15
FLORIDA – 99 delegates
40.0% – Trump
19.0% – Cruz
13.7% – Rubio
Presumed winner: Trump
OHIO (Kasich’s home state) – 66 delegates
31% – Trump
26% – Kasich
21% – Cruz
Presumed winner: Trump
It will be embarrassing if Kasich loses Ohio. Likewise for Rubio if Florida goes to Trump, which will likely happen. By losing their home states, they will have to seriously consider abandoning the race.
This can earn Trump another 200-plus delegates, bringing his total to more than 600, almost half of all of the delegates needed to secure the nomination (1,237).
This tsunami of support will make it nearly impossible for any other candidate to catch up with Trump. By March 16, he won’t have all of the delegates needed to win, but the GOP establishment should realize it’s all over but the shouting.
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Tim Bryce is a freelance writer in the Tampa Bay area of Florida. @timbryce Column courtesy of Context Florida.
