Darryl Paulson
(Last of three parts)
The last time the Republicans held their national convention without a candidate having a majority of the delegates needed to win was 1976. Fortunately for President Gerald Ford, he was able to persuade enough of the unpledged delegates to win a first ballot victory over Ronald Reagan.
For Democrats, 1984 was the last time they went into the convention without a clear winner. Walter Mondale convinced enough “super delegates” to support him to ensure his first ballot win.
The last time either party needed more than one ballot to select its nominee was in 1952 when the Democrats took three ballots to select Adlai Stevenson. For Republicans, it took three ballots in 1948 to select New York Gov. Thomas Dewey as their candidate. It took a record 103 ballots for Democrats to select their nominee in 1924.
To win the Republican nomination in 2016, a candidate must win 1,237 delegates. After the March 22 primaries, Trump has 739 delegates and needs another 498 to win.
If no candidate has 1,237 delegates when the convention starts, it is considered to be a contested convention. If no one secures a majority during the first ballot, the convention becomes “brokered.” Statistician Nate Silver estimates that Trump will fall about 29 delegates short of the 1,237 majority.
If that happens, one of two things will occur. First, Trump could persuade some of the over 100 unpledged delegates to support him or he could strike a deal with one of his opponents, who pledge his delegates to Trump, assuring the nomination. Second, if Trump fails to secure a majority on the first ballot, about half of the delegates would become free agents.
Several issues will affect Trump’s chances. First, there are only three candidates remaining. Especially important will be the results of the April 5 Wisconsin primary, the April 19 New York primary and the June 7 California primary.
Wisconsin has 52 delegates and the winner gets all of them. Polls show Trump getting on 30 of the vote. Trump’s home state of New York has 95 delegates. If he wins 50 percent or more of the vote, he would win all the delegates. The big prize is California and its 172 delegates. Winners at the congressional district level are awarded delegates and the statewide winner collects 13 more delegates. Polls show Trump getting 30 percent of the vote.
A second issue is what happens to delegates awarded to candidates who have dropped out, like Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush? That depends on the rules in the states. In Iowa, delegates are locked in forever. In states like New Hampshire and Michigan, delegates are reallocated based on the primary or caucus vote.
A final factor is the convention’s Rules Committee, which is made up of one man and one woman from each of the 50 states and the six territories. At the 2012 convention, the Rules Committee adopted Rule 40, which said that only candidates who won a majority of delegates in eight states would be considered viable. At this point, only Trump meets that standard.
The Rules Committee could amend or abolish Rule 40 to allow other candidates to participate. Any rule change clearly would be controversial.
Trump contends that even if he falls short of 1,237 votes, he should win the nomination because he has more delegates than anyone else. If he is not selected, Trump said some of his supporters would riot in protest.
Trump’s critics argue that unless a candidate gets 1,237 delegates, there is no provision to award the nomination to the candidate with the most delegates. Convention history is filled with examples of candidates winning the nomination who didn’t have the most delegates. Abraham Lincoln is one example.
If the convention is deadlocked, some say Trump might offer the vice presidency or some other enticement to secure the needed delegates.
Others, including Trump, believe he would be at a disadvantage in a brokered convention. “My disadvantage,” Trump argues, “is that I’d be going up against guys who grew up together, who know each other intimately, and I don’t know who they are, ok? That’s a big disadvantage.”
Whatever happens at the Republican convention, hang on. With Trump at the wheel, we are all in for a bumpy ride.
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Darryl Paulson is Emeritus Professor of Government at USF St. Petersburg and can be reached at [email protected]. Column courtesy of Context Florida.
