Steve Schale
Six months before Election Day, now that the candidates and races are starting to develop, I wanted to take a look at my favorite of all subjects: State House races.
For those of you all who don’t know me well, I cut my teeth in the Florida House. State House races are my first political love, and for young rising operatives, I believe them to be the best of all proving grounds. Almost everything you do running for president, governor, Congress, etc., you do running for the State House, just at a smaller scale.
There are a lot of fun races this year, with the Democrats largely playing offense — though many of their best shots are against incumbents, which is typically a tougher bet.
As you will see, of the 10 races profiled below, there is only one in the Democratic column.
Some folks might think I am home-teaming this thing, but honestly, I could argue that one doesn’t belong there either, as it isn’t really at much risk and is included more for balance.
One other caveat, this is how I see these races today, but much can and will change. I am pretty sure if we checked with a group of Republican and Democratic strategists, you’d find consensus that the map will be fought on the GOP side this year.
I have ranked these seats in order of their likelihood to flip from one party to the other, with 10 being the least likely, to 1 being the most likely.
- HD 68 (Dudley Open):
Dwight Dudley’s surprise decision to retire from the House has created an open seat in traditionally one of the top battleground districts in Florida. The top of the ticket results would argue this seat is just barely a swing seat, though given both the Pinellas voter registration trends and the potential of a bruising Democratic primary, this seat barely makes the list. In three months, there is a good chance it will have fallen off.
- HD 72 (Pilon Open):
If Ray Pilon had run for re-election, this would be an honorable mention, but now that it is an open seat. it makes the first round of rankings.
The Democratic candidate, Edward James, comes from an established Sarasota family and has raised a significant war chest. The Republican, Alex Miller, is formidable in her own right. Based on candidate quality alone, this should be higher up the list.
However, the district is quite marginal for Democrats. Both Mitt Romney and Rick Scott won the district by a few points, and given the older — and whiter make-up of the seat — it is a place less likely to be affected by Donald Trump. Keep an eye on it, and ask me again in three months.
- HD 69 (Kathleen Peters Challenge):
This is one of the “swingiest” of seats in one of the swingiest of counties.
Both Barack Obama and Charlie Crist won the district by a few points, and there is no reason to think that Trump/Clinton won’t have the same outcome.
The incumbent Republican has played it smart, avoiding ideological pits, focusing on mental health as her primary issue. The Democratic candidate, Jennifer Webb, is a bit unknown at this point, hence this seat not being higher up the list. In three months this could be a real race, or it might not even be on this list. But given the make-up of the district, it will be one to watch.
- HD 120 (Holly Raschein Challenge):
Two reasons this race makes the list: the district’s historical performance, and the problems Trump creates for all Republicans in South Florida. As a legislator in a vulnerable seat, Raschein has done everything right. Full disclosure, she’s been a friend for many years. We were staff together in the House.
Thus I hate even including her on this list. Objectively, she has one of the more bipartisan voting records in Tallahassee, works hard for her district, and she’s effectively scared off all top tier opponents.
But in her district, particularly in a presidential year, any opponent is a threat. Obama won the district by six points, and with a good chunk of the district in heavily Hispanic South Dade, a Trump implosion with Hispanics could hurt her. I expect her to win, but she’s going to have to grind it out in a tough environment.
- HD 47 (Mike Miller Challenge):
Like HD 30 — which isn’t even on the list at this point, this seat should be further up the list for Dems.
The top of the ticket statewide for the Democrats has carried the seat in each of the last four elections, but at this point, no Democratic candidate has emerged as a top tier challenger, and Miller is sitting on $100,000, which is a respectable number. However, the Ds won the seat easily in 2012 against a fairly formidable opponent, and Orlando is one of those places where Trump could create problems for Republicans. Miller starts with the edge, but can’t take anything for granted.
- HD 59 (Spano Challenge):
Ross Spano’s opponent, Rena Frazier, is flat out one of the better recruits the Dems have had in years.
The district is very much up for grabs at the top of the ticket, and voter registration is trending a bit Democratic. That being said, Spano is a heavyweight in his own right, well liked and a hard worker. He won a four-way primary in his first race over opponents he was not supposed to beat.
However, there is no question that Rena is the best general election opponent he has faced. If Tom Lee runs for local office, and Spano takes a shot at the Senate, look for this one to move up the rankings.
- HD 63 (Shawn Harrison Challenge):
On paper, of the two GOP-held swing seats in Hillsborough, this one is definitely more favorable to the Democrats.
Obama carried the district by 5-6 points, and swept in Mark Danish over Harrison in 2012.
This time around, he faces a better candidate in Lisa Montelione, a Tampa City Council member who has had a respectable early fundraising show, and a weaker GOP nominee in Trump. A GOP wave swept Harrison into office in 2010, out of office in 2012, back into office in 2014… you get the idea.
He’s generally carved out the kind of voting record you need in a seat like this, but to win, he has to buck the district’s recent history. If Lee runs for the Senate and Harrison takes his shot, this seat probably moves to No. 2 or No. 3 on this list.
- HD 103 (Manny Diaz Challenge):
I don’t think there is a single Republican incumbent in the State House more hurt by Trump than Manny Diaz Jr., who is legitimately one of the nicest guys in town.
Going into re-election, he’s got three major problems: The seat is moving away from him — quickly, he’s running against one of the D’s better candidates, and Trump.
Voter registration has trended away from Republicans, and this is the kind of seat where NPA voters lean Democratic — and that is before the Trump factor. He will have a ton of financial support, his race will be competently managed, and as a guy who cut his teeth in a district where we were called dead every cycle, I never count anyone out. And no one can count Diaz out either. But unless something changes, he clearly starts out as the most vulnerable incumbent.
- HD 114 (Erik Fresen Open):
Always one of the better opportunities for Democrats, this open seat has quickly rocketed to the top, now that it is all but sure that Trump will be the GOP nominee. Both parties have top tier candidates in this seat.
Both parties will play heavily in this rare Dade County open swing seat. But the Ds have two major factors helping them: like all of Dade, this seat is trending Democratic.
The Democratic candidate, Daisy Baez, put a real scare into Fresen in 2014, which was a horrible year for Democrats. In a year where Hillary Clinton will likely beat Trump in Dade County by 30 or more points, Baez at this point is in an exceptionally strong position.
- HD 49 (Coach P Open).
With all due respect to Rene Plasencia (Coach P), who is the perfect Republican in this lean Democratic seat, and who ran a near perfect campaign — this is not a seat the Democrats should have lost, even in 2014.
Obama carried the seat in 2012 by roughly 20 points, and Crist easily defeated Scott. Coach P, a teacher and track coach, has decided to seek re-election in a neighboring seat, much more favorable to Republicans. I honestly don’t think the GOP is even contesting this one. Unless something exceptionally odd happens, the Democratic candidate, my buddy Carlos Smith, will win this seat.
And here are a few that you should keep an eye on:
HD 30 (Bob Cortes Challenge):
If I had written this column six months ago, this seat which has flipped from R to D to R in the last few cycles would have probably 5th or 6th on this list.
It has all the makings of a battleground seat – central Florida, tight races at the top of the ticket, trending Hispanic, etc. But to date, Cortes has fended off a top tier opponent. Depending on what happens over the next three months, this will either move completely off, or move into top-tier status.
HD 9 (Michelle Rehwinkel Vasilinda Open):
Some Republicans see this as a pick-up opportunity, but I think this seat is far more competitive on paper than it is in reality.
The top-of-the-ticket Democrat has carried it by respectable margins. The one blip: 2012, where Obama won the district by only 5 points. That being said, well known and well liked former State Rep. Loranne Ausley has filed and is absolutely killing it on fundraising.
The GOP also has a good candidate, though not nearly as well known as Loranne — nor as good as Peter Boulware, who failed to win the seat in 2008. Loranne alone is probably a 3-4 point boost on top of the seat’s Democratic performance. Plus Loranne is an Ironman finisher — she knows how to work. By the numbers, it is one to watch, but I suspect Loranne wins by double digits.
HD 93 (George Moraitis Challenge):
Representative Moraitis holds down the one red seat in Blue Broward. It is one of these seats that looks better on paper for Democrats than it is in reality.
But this year he has drawn an interesting opponent, former Broward County Commissioner Ken Keechl. Keechl will have real name ID, and has a fundraising base. Romney won this district in 2012, but I suspect this is a seat where Clinton should outperform Obama.
In no way yet can you say Moraitis is vulnerable, but that doesn’t mean he or the GOP can turn a blind eye to this race.
Almost every single Dade County Republican Legislative seat:
I have felt for several years that one day, on the Wednesday after the election, we will wake up and the Democrats will have won several seats in Dade County that no one saw coming. This might be the year.
These incumbents all live in seats Obama either won or lost in narrow margins.
Like everything in politics, this is all subject to change. I’ll take another stab at this after qualifying.
In the meantime, if you have any thoughts or questions, please feel free to drop me a note.
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Steven Schale is a Florida-based political, communications and government-relations strategist. He can reached at [email protected] Column courtesy of Context Florida.
