A.G. Gancarski
A new automated phone poll of 1,076 likely voters from St. Pete Polls is the first to address the 2015 Jacksonville runoff election for sheriff and mayor. The poll, with a 3 percent margin of error, shows a tight mayoral race with incumbent Democrat Alvin Brown slightly ahead of Republican Lenny Curry. It also shows Democratic sheriff candidate Ken Jefferson ahead of Republican Mike Williams in the very early going.
The poll has Brown ahead of Curry, 49.4 percent to 46.1 percent, showing that in a binary race there already is a slight skew to Curry from the Bill Bishop supporters in Tuesday’s election. The poll was taken before the pension deal being spiked Wednesday night by the Jacksonville City Council.
With neither Curry nor Brown above 50 percent, the mayoral race clearly hangs in the balance. The margin is just outside the margin of error.
In good news for Brown and Curry, both have net favorable ratings. Brown has a 52.2 percent favorable rating (and a 34.3 percent Unfavorable); Curry is at 46.5 percent favorable and 39.8 percent unfavorable. Both men have a significant proportion of voters who are unsure (13.7 percent for Curry; 13.5 percent for Brown).
Williams, who lost the First Election by 15 points to Jefferson, likewise is closing the gap with the Democrat in a binary race (48.8 percent to 40.6 percent).
We will have a deep dive into the data of this poll later Thursday morning, regarding demographic and other breakdowns. Check back soon for detailed analysis.
