Darryl Paulson
After 22 terms and 43 years of congressional service, U.S. Rep. Bill Young died last week.
Republicans first won this district in 1954 when Bill Cramer, recognized by many as the founder of the modern Florida Republican Party, defeated Democratic Congressman Courtney Campbell in a close race. Cramer became the first Republican member of Congress from Florida since Reconstruction.
Cramer held the seat for 16 years and, in 1970, made an unsuccessful attempt to win the U.S. Senate seat against Lawton Chiles. Bill Young, who was the first Republican in the Florida Senate, serving from 1960 to 1970, was elected to the Cramer seat and seldom faced a serious challenge in his 22 terms.
In the 1950s, Cramer’s congressional district encompassed all of Pinellas County and parts of Hillsborough and Pasco. Today, Congressional District 13 is entirely within the borders of Pinellas County. Only the southern part of Pinellas, heavily African American, is not part of the district.
Since Republicans have held the district since 1954 and Young has held it for the last 43 years, this is truly a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for both Republican and Democratic candidates.
On the Republican side, two of the leading candidates, State Senators Jack Latvala and Jeff Brandes, have already announced they will not run. Latvala posted on Facebook: “Who wants to be in a job that is rated less favorably than a cockroach?” Apparently, at least 20 other individuals are willing to mingle with the cockroaches.
Other possible Republican candidates are former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker, former Clearwater Mayor Frank Hibbard, County Commissioner Karen Seel, former Pinellas County Commissioner Neil Brickfield, Republican consultant Nick Zoller, Young’s wife Beverly and his son Billy and former Young congressional aide David Jolly.
On the Democratic side, possible candidates include County Commissioners Janet Long and Charlie Justice and Ben Diamond, attorney and grandson of former long-time Congressman Dante Fascell and former legal counsel to Alex Sink during her 2010 gubernatorial campaign.
Pinellas County resident and former Gov. Charlie Crist has said he will not run, as has former Democratic Speaker of the House Peter Rudy Wallace. Jessica Ehrlick, who ran against Young in 2012 and received 42 percent of the vote, is the only announced Democrat in the race.
The most recent name to emerge as a possible Democratic candidate is Alex Sink, former Chief Financial Officer for the state and unsuccessful challenger to Rick Scott. Sink lost to Scott by only 61,000 votes, but defeated Scott in congressional district 13 with 51.1 percent of the vote.
Close elections are the norm in Pinellas County. In 2000, Gore beat Bush 51-49 percent. Four years later, Bush defeated Kerry by the same margin. In 2008, Obama received 52 percent to McCain’s 48 percent. Finally, in 2012, Obama beat Romney in Pinellas by a 50-49 percent margin.
The close elections reflect the electoral make-up of the district, which has a slight advantage for Republicans over Democrats, 37 to 35 percent.
When Sink recently announced that “I’m very interested” in running for Young’s seat, Republicans were quick to label her a carpetbagger. Billy Young II tweeted: “Interested to see how voters in CD 13, who vote thoughtfully, will take to a nonPinellas resident.”
Neil Brickfield hoped Sink “had the good manners to hire a Pinellas-based mover.” Even Democrat Charlie Justice noted that he was “not sure anyone steps aside for anyone.”
In addition to the outsider issue, it was only a month ago that Sink announced that she would not challenge Scott. Sink cited family fundraising horrors and her responsibilities at her Florida Next Foundation.
So, a fair question for Sink is “what has changed in the past month to make you want to run for Congress, but not to challenge the man you barely lost to four years ago?”
When Young announced he was stepping down last week, at least 10 candidates were mentioned as possibilities on both the Republican and Democratic side. Young’s death completely changes the campaign dynamics.
A special election called by Scott in consultation with Secretary of State Ken Detzner gives the advantage to candidates whose names voters recognize. Sink, Baker and Billy Young II would benefit most.
The special election, with its short time frame, benefits candidates with lots of money or the ability to raise large sums quickly. Sink and Ehrlick will benefit on the Democratic side; Baker and Billy Young on the Republican side.
Sink would be a strong candidate, but Democrats are fooling themselves if they believe she would be the party’s political Moses.
After all, Moses spent 40 years wandering in the desert.
