A.G. Gancarski
In the run up to Jacksonville’s First Election, one of the more interesting developments was the emergence of the Young Voters Coalition. The group took a nonpartisan stance (even as some folks in the Democratic establishment privately complained that it was just a front group for Bill Bishop supporters) in elections, seeking “to increase turnout of voters age 18 to 40 by at least 5 percent in the 2015 city elections through collaborative events, through engaging and informative marketing and social media campaigns, recommendations of like-minded city council candidates and outreach efforts.”
Well, the group had no shortage of collaborative events, engaging and informative marketing, and so on. The group’s Ballots and Brews event was one of the best candidate meet and greet events that I’ve ever seen. They had great T-shirts, social media that was on point, impeccably well-connected people out front, and so on. Did it work?
Depends on how you look at it.
Local conservative commentator Jon McGowan took an unpopular position as the publicity for the YVC crested, essentially saying that the campaign gave people an excuse to get together and drink beer, but that it would not do much in the way of affecting turnout. Many folks disagreed with him; McGowan stood his ground.
Now that the March First Election is safely in the rear-view mirror, we are in a position to evaluate whether or not the YVC got it done. McGowan presented me with an analysis that reveals mixed results.
“In 2011, 27,537 of the 204,225 registered voters under 40 turned out. The under 40 turnout was 13.5 percent and overall turnout was 29.7 percent. In 2015, 30,811 of the 212,591 voters under 40 turned out. The under 40 turnout was 14.5 percent while the total turnout was 33.8 percent. Overall turnout increased 4 points, under 40 turnout only increased by 1 point. In 2011, the under 40 voters made up 17.9 percent of the votes cast, in 2015, the under 40 turnout only made up 16.6 percent. So while the number of under 40 votes increased, we actually saw a decreased under 40 participation in relation to the overall turnout.”
Essentially, what it boils down to is this: According to McGowan’s read of the figures, the YVC did not achieve its goals. In fact, if one subscribes to that data, the modest increase in percentage of young people voting was driven more by a general increase in interest in this election compared to 2011’s First Election.
McGowan had more to say:
“In order for the Jax Young Voters to hit their goal, they would have had to see an increase to 39,329 voters, which would be 11,792 more voters or a 42 percent increase in voters from 2011. For the second election, they want to increase under 40 turnout to 24.7 percent from 19.7 percent. That would mean, based off the first election registered voter numbers, they need 52,510 to turn out compared to the 40,599 that showed up in 2011 or a 29.3 percent increase in total under 40 voters.”
McGowan goes on to break down turnout by age range. The 18-25 year old turnout was a mere 9.5 percent. The 26-30 year old voters weren’t much stronger: 12 percent. The 31-35 year old voters, meanwhile, had a 17 percent turnout; the 36-40 year old set was stronger: a whopping 22 percent.
Regarding the data, Meredith Johnson of the YVC observed that “you missed one important data point: The percentage increase in 18-40 year old voters was 11.88 percent.” This data point takes in the raw number increase from 2011 (27,537) to 2015 (30,811).
McGowan has his theories as to under-performance.
“When someone tries to get a certain demographic to vote just because they check a box, it dumbs down the process and ultimately is insulting to the members of that category. People under the age of 40 have a wide variety of views on the political spectrum and what this group did was assume we all think alike,” said McGowan, a view consistent with points he made earlier in the cycle, when he said that the group was trying to get a certain type of young voter to the polls.
“The only elected officials under 40 in Jacksonville are Republicans that were attacked by this group. They didnt endorse any of the under-40 candidates because they didn’t meet this group’s political criteria. Jacksonville has a diverse under-40 population who have varying political views whether they are Young Republicans, Young Democrats, Libertarians, social conservatives or social liberals. Each voter comes to their own political beliefs through thought and their own set of values,” McGowan said.
“Where this group was failed from its inception was unrealistic goals and a lack of understanding of the political process. People under 40 vote because they care about an issue, care about a candidate, or feel it is their civic duty, not because someone handed them a beer,” McGowan added, in a clear reference to the Ballots and Brews event.
Having talked to a lot of people associated with the Young Voters Coalition, I would add that their outreach wasn’t as simple as “here’s a beer, now go vote.” Though such outreach actually is used in different venues, including candidate fish fry and BBQ events in neighborhoods around election time, this group’s quid pro quo was not voting, per se, but demonstrating a commitment to engagement.
So there were successes. But the successes were not as vivid as advocates for the group’s actions would like. Why?
A big reason is that the group’s outreach was limited to the hipster enclaves of the Urban Core: the places where Bishop performed best. The deep westside, Northwest Jacksonville, the Eastside, and other areas of town had a limited presence from the group. While young voter turnout, especially in the 18-30 demos, really has nowhere to go but up, the Young Voters Coalition targeted a subsection of younger voters in its efforts, and made limited outreach to people who, ironically, have the most to gain from engagement.
One of the things that vexes active young voters, especially the socially liberal ones, is that there is a disconnect in practical goals. The strongest advocates for expanding the Human Rights Ordinance to the LGBT community are reticent when it comes to countering police-involved shootings on the Northside and Westside. And the reverse is also true. Coalitions that conceivably could be built are not, in part because the parties involved don’t function as if they have shared interests.
Jacksonville, its consolidated government notwithstanding, has a fractured identity. The Town Center and Queen’s Harbor are radically different than Riverside and Avondale, and all of those are a world removed from Sweetwater and Durkeeville. Until the Young Voters Coalition is able to effectively outreach to the areas in Jacksonville that don’t have microbrews and fixie bikes, they will not reach their numerical goals. And those who could use effective ballot box-driven change the most will not get help from the city at large. Thus, the YVC needs to be about more than boosting numbers: The bigger task ahead of them is trying to bring dialogue among groups that up until now haven’t had it in any meaningful way.
If I were running the Young Voters Coalition, I would have outreach events in the parts of town most members know from the evening news. They might encounter resistance. They might hear things they don’t want to hear. And they might have to recalibrate their messaging as new information and perspectives come to light. But without doing that, they will never achieve the change they seek.
“We knew going into this effort that increasing the turnout by 5 percentage points was an ambitious goal. However, we are confident that our approach made a difference because more 18- to 40-year-old voters participated in the first election than in 2015 — 11.88 percent more, in fact. The total number of young voters who cast a ballot last month increased by 3,274 from 2011. For that, we’re proud. We still have a lot of work to do. And we will continue to work as the May election draws closer to provide young voters with the information they need to confidently vote for the candidate they feel will best serve this city and its diverse residents,” Johnson told us.
They have a good start. The question now is where do they go from here.
