Mitch Perry
One thing was crystal clear for Florida Democratic Party Chair Allison Tant on Thursday as the FDP studied the Florida Supreme Court decision and its affect on the state’s congressional districts.
“Florida’s highest court has found Tallahassee Republicans guilty of unconstitutionally subverting Florida’s democracy,” she said. While that’s accurate, the relevant question for her and fellow Democrats is whether they’ll be able to exploit the ruling at the ballot box a year from November.
First of all, as Florida Politics‘ Ryan Ray reported, with Corrine Brown‘s District 5 being one of the eight districts to be redrawn, means it will definitely affect on Gwen Graham‘s District 2 seat. Both now contain parts of 14 counties.
One proposed map offered by the League of Women Voters would carve up the middle of Tallahassee, where the core of Graham’s voting bloc resides. Depending on the redraw, her re-election chances could be seriously imperiled.
That’s a problem for the Democrats trying to maintain as many seats as possible in Congress, but also personally for Graham, who has already raised more than $1 million dollars this year in her re-election bid and the chance to move up in the party ranks. A threat to her immediate survival could make her recalculate her electoral ambitions.
Two other seats where the lines are slated to be redrawn could benefit Democrats. One is in CD 26, where Republican Carlos Curbelo won back the seat for the GOP in 2014 from Democrat Joe Garcia. CD 26 is a majority Hispanic district that contains all of Monroe County, as well as a portion of southwest Miami-Dade County. Whether the newly drawn district lines will boost Annette Taddeo to finally win a victory to Congress is unclear.
The other district that could become more viable is Pinellas County’s District 13 seat, occupied by Republican David Jolly, on the job for less than a year and a half. The Supreme Court ruled that Kathy Castor’s District 14 seat should not run across the Tampa Bay and into South St. Petersburg, as is currently the situation.
Presumably redrawn lines by the Republican-led Legislature would put south St. Petersburg into the district, with theoretically more Democrats, meaning a better chance of winning. Jolly defeated Alex Sink by a little more than two percentage points in the currently constituted district last year.
Another potential dilemma for Democrats is in South Florida, where the congressional districts of Ted Deutch, and Lois Frankel will also need to be redrawn.
The court did not set a deadline for redistricting but said it has to be finished in time for the 2016 elections.
