Melissa Ross
Although he’s placing some side money on Marco Rubio as “the perfect cover,” political analyst/bettor Paul Krishnamurty is looking like a genius in the wake of the Iowa caucuses.
Krishnamurty, who freelances for the British sports betting firm Betfair and blogs at Political Gambler, has long placed his chips on Ted Cruz to win the 2016 GOP nomination for president.
After Cruz’s upset over Donald Trump, Krishnamurty is happy to report he made a cool $1,500 betting against The Donald.
“It will all come down to Cruz versus Rubio,” he told WJCT.
“I don’t think Donald Trump has any hope of being the nominee. He has even less hope of being president. He MAY win New Hampshire this week, but I think there’s an anti-Trump vote, I think there was an anti-Trump vote in Iowa last night. And I think the big turnout last night was in large part based on people trying to stop him.”
Krishnamurty started betting on elections over in Britain at the turn of the 21st century, and first bet on an American contest in 2008. He correctly bet on Barack Obama for the presidency, and on John McCain as the GOP nominee that year. British betting markets allow political gambling, which is virtually outlawed here in the States.
According to Krishnamurty, Cruz’s ascent is due to anti-establishment fervor.
“My long-term analysis goes back to 2008, where I could see this move towards outsiders. There was a strong anti-Washington sentiment after the Bush administration. Then in 2012, it grew, and Mitt Romney struggled to get over the line. This time round, Cruz is a serious candidate. He’s got proper finances, a brilliant campaign and marketing strategy, and I think Trump will fall away, and a lot of this anti-establishment fervor will go to him.”
However:
“I still think that the Democrats are the likely winner. I still favor Hillary Clinton, but that race is getting interesting. Bernie Sanders is an interesting, unique candidate, and we’re dealing with this anti-establishment sentiment that is sweeping the world at the moment. Sanders will perform impressively in New Hampshire, Hillary will win South Carolina, and where we go after that, we’ll see.”
What Americans may not realize is that our 2016 election will be the most heavily betted-upon event of all time, says Krishnamurty.
“An extraordinary amount. Billions of dollars.”
So how much does he stand to make?
“I have notionally set a target of $50 thousand,” he said.
“I made $1,500 last night betting against Trump. On Cruz, my bet has already yielded $500 in profit. And if he becomes the nominee, the next is $13,500.”
But like any pro, Krishnamurty has placed some covers. Hedging his bets, he says, on last night’s third place finisher- with some chips on Rubio.
