A.G. Gancarski
Lenny Curry has pulled ahead of incumbent Alvin Brown in the Jacksonville mayoral race, a poll by Curry’s consulting firm indicates.
As Melissa Ross reported Friday afternoon, “a polling document” provided to FloridaPolitics.com by Curry’s consultant Data Targeting Research contends that the Republican’s “positive name recognition continues to steadily increase and for the first time – in our more pessimistic turnout scenario which assumes an even more Democrat-friendly electorate than that seen in the 2011 General – Lenny has a lead over Mayor Alvin Brown head to head.”
This poll, aimed at Curry supporters, is the first that has shown Curry ahead.
The poll posits that Brown’s “name recognition and re-elect number continue to fall below benchmarks that would position him for victory” even as Curry’s positive name identification surges.
Brown’s favorability, at 54 percent, is the lowest it has been in any poll since his election, with a net of plus-19 (35 percent unfavorable rating). The Mayor’s re-elect number is “dangerously low” at 42 percent. A total of 49 percent of respondents, meanwhile, assert it’s “time for a new mayor.” Curry, meanwhile, has a favorability of 53 percent, with much less shearing in unfavorables, for a net number of plus-28.
The head-to-head has Curry up 46 percent to 42 percent, with violent crime stats and the pension situation helping the Republican. Curry also has a messaging advantage that the campaign undoubtedly will press going forward.
The poll also suggests that Brown can’t close the deal with undecided voters. Just 6 percent of undecided respondents think the mayor should be re-elected. Given that 57 percent of voters voted against Brown in the First Election, such numbers augur poorly for the Brown campaign, and perhaps explain the recent rhetorical moves to the left as an attempt to reconstitute a fractured base.
