Bob Sparks: Jeb Bush looks to ‘stay in the conversation’ in New Hampshire

Jeb Bush knows that it is now or never if he is to find a path to the Republican nomination. Many believe any path was covered up two or three debates ago, but what may be a final opportunity exists next week in New Hampshire.

Bush was a distant sixth in Iowa, finishing more than 20 points behind third-place finisher Marco Rubio. On the bright side, the landscape in New Hampshire is quite different from Iowa.

There is no three-way battle for first place, at least not at this moment. The Real Clear Politics average has Donald Trump firmly in command with a 21-point margin over Rubio.

The gap between second place Rubio and fifth place Bush is only 2.5 points. Rubio has 11.8 percent, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has 11.3, Ohio Gov. John Kasich has 11 while Bush comes in at 9.3.

Second or third place in New Hampshire definitely keeps Bush going. Perhaps fourth is sufficient, which would be first among the “establishment” candidates. MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough spoke of “staying in the conversation” on Tuesday’s “Morning Joe” program.

Or perhaps change the conversation. Up to this point, the only positive media Bush is getting comes when he or the Right to Rise PAC pays for it.

An example is the full page ad placed by Bush in the conservative New Hampshire Union-Leader newspaper. In the ad, eight former Florida House Speakers speak respectfully of Rubio, but claim Bush is the best choice for president.

Bush must clearly be the top finisher among governors coming out of New Hampshire. Perhaps his team feels his organization can overcome Kasich on the ground. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s strategy of attacking Rubio frees Jeb to focus on outworking Kasich.

Besides Trump, Rubio appears to be out of reach. In fact, Florida’s junior senator seems to be surging.

Bush could work to climb over Cruz by piling onto the Iowa winner’s recent flap involving a dirty trick against Dr. Ben Carson. Cruz already has higher negatives in New Hampshire than Bush.

The post-Iowa polling in New Hampshire is all over the place. For example, the four-day average from a tracking poll by the University of Massachusetts and Channel 7 in Boston has Rubio in third with 11 percent, but surging.

Over each of those four days, Rubio has moved up, starting at 8 percent on Monday, but polling at 15 percent on Thursday. Cruz has a four-day average of 13.5 percent, but was stuck on 14 over three days.

Bush is fourth in the UMass survey with 8.75 percent with Kasich in fifth with 8 percent. Both dropped slightly on day four. Trump leads with 37.5 percent.

Rubio was the only candidate among the top five to go up between day three and day four.

A survey from Harper Polling released Feb. 2 had Trump leading with 31 percent and Bush second with 14, Kasich third, Rubio fourth and Cruz fifth. This poll talked to some picky people.

The respondents, only 8 percent of whom are Democrats, do not like any of the Republicans — except Trump. Outside of Trump’s 51 percent favorable rating, Bush and Kasich are the closest to break even with 45 percent favorable. Rubio is at 42, while Cruz is at 36.

Carson, the candidate who formerly garnered the highest favorables, could do no better than 40 percent with this crowd. Carson is far back in the field in New Hampshire.

With Sen. Rand Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee now out of the race, the battle is now on for the combined 5 percent from those candidates. It could make a difference for positions two through five.

One thing is certain; the Republican field will be thinner for the South Carolina primary on Feb. 20 than it will be on Tuesday. The “conversation” begins on Wednesday.

Bush and his supporters must do whatever it takes to butt into that conversation.

***

Bob Sparks is a business and political consultant based in Tallahassee. Column courtesy of Context Florida.