Peter Schorsch
While Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez enjoys a double-digit lead in his bid for re-election, a new poll finds that more than one-third of primary voters remain unsure. That represents a substantial cross-section of the electorate who could tip the balance in the Aug. 30 primary.
A new survey of 600 likely voters, conducted by business lobby Associated Industries of Florida, gives Gimenez an 18-point overall advantage over challenger Raquel Regalado — 43 to 28 percent — including a +23-point favorability rating with all voters (51 to 28 percent).
Gimenez, an incumbent Republican, drew 40 percent overall support in a head-to-head matchup, followed by 22 percent for Regalado, a Miami-Dade School Board member. Political novice Alfred Santamaría received just 4 percent.
To avoid a runoff election in November, Gimenez needs to surpass the 50 percent mark, which will require a stronger showing with Democrats, especially African-Americans, with whom his support is weakest.
The Associated Industries of Florida poll has the Republican with 54 percent job approval — including 12 percent saying they strongly approve. However, that number drops to only 40 percent among African-Americans.
“While only slightly underwater there, his more fragile level of support among African Americans is a theme that continued throughout this data set,” wrote AIF’s Director of Political Operations Ryan Tyson in the polling memo.
Another indication of Gimenez’s relatively soft support was with undecided voters. Thirty-five percent of all respondents said they were still undecided, a number that included 41 percent of Democrats, as well as 51 percent of African-Americans.
If Republican Gimenez is forced to a November runoff — during a presidential election — it will be at a time that traditionally favors Democrats, liberal-leaning and occasional voters. While Cuban Americans, a group that votes regularly, seem to prefer the mayor (43 percent versus 29 percent for Regalado), their vote could be overshadowed in turnout by those infrequent Democratic voters casting presidential ballots.
One bright spot for Gimenez was in the decision to legalize ride-sharing companies Uber and Lyft. Seventy-five percent of overall voters agreed with the decision, including 76 percent Democrats, 72 percent Republicans and overwhelmingly favored by Cuban Americans (76 percent), African-Americans (72 percent), Puerto Ricans (81 percent) and other Hispanics (92 percent).
Complicating things further is an earlier AIF survey, reported by POLITICO Florida, which shows the Republican Party suffering “substantial brand damage” in Florida if Donald Trump leads the ticket in November.
Democrat Hillary Clinton “would wallop Trump by 49-36 percent [in Florida] if the election were held today,” Caputo wrote May 2; a victory that “almost guarantees” her the White House.
Trump could make it even harder for down-ballot Republicans, including Gimenez.
The latest AIF poll took place May 21-25, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.
