Peter Schorsch
“There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.”
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said those fateful words when the Iraqi occupation started going south.
And, as we consider the uncertain pitch for the pension tax, it’s worthwhile reviewing why.
The decision to go into Iraq, once made, was nonreversible. The die was cast. And right now, in Jacksonville, Mayor Lenny Curry likewise is dealing with explaining uncertainty to a populace that seems to demand absolute values and reliable outcomes.
A die was also cast, months back, when Curry bet all of his “political capital” on the results of the referendum, even as some questions were left open.
Curry can’t say what’s coming out of collective bargaining with unions. Nor can he tell whether or not the choice is going to be made to amortize the debt, lowering the burden and spreading it out over years, or just letting the debt ride out, paying as is agreed, until the Better Jacksonville Plan lapses in 2030 (or sooner, maybe).
The plan, in its embryonic form, moved city employees to defined contribution plans. Now? No sure thing.
A defined benefit plan could, in theory, replace another defined benefit plan.
Is the mechanics of this Curry’s fault? No. Unions have the right to negotiate, and consulting every three years with active police and fire unions will allow for a meaningful reset, which lines up with market performance.
Council, likewise, has to be comfortable with whatever transpires. They could, in theory, push ahead and insist upon terms and conditions.
However, even though Curry has been clear that unknown conditions exist, the people have apparently grown impatient.
Comment threads, not so much a representative sample as a “mosaic of engagement,” lean more towards denunciation than supporting the plan.
People throughout Duval County, meanwhile, see the tax as a big rock-candy mountain rather than as an attempt to mitigate some of the red ink on the balance sheet.
This deal is not about capital improvements. It’s about the operating budget.
It’s about the fact that legacy costs from a very mature pension plan have ballooned to such a point that the present isn’t sustainable.
To put it into sports terms, it’s like Jacksonville spent against its future salary caps in previous years.
The result will be painful.
For people who expect that a new Better Jacksonville Plan is happening, think again. It’s not about a new gilded age. It’s about defraying a pension burden that has bedeviled three straight mayors.
Facing Curry is a predicament: many of the people who voted him in want an immediate fix to an intractable problem.
Others don’t even see a problem.
The “Yes for Jacksonville” campaign, it is said, will be on TV next month with ads.
It may want to expedite its time frame, and make the case — a case against the referendum, that is — despite the absence of clear, aggressive messaging.
There has developed an ironic parallel between this and the mayoral race Curry won last year, a race in which Alvin Brown failed to ramp up his campaign until Curry had already been active for months.
Winning every news cycle is what earned Curry Jacksonville’s top job.
Now is the time for his team to get back to those basics … before it’s too late.
In doing so, Jacksonville voters might get a better sense of what will come from these “known unknowns.”
“Political campaign pushes pension-tax plan” via Nate Monroe of the Florida Times-Union – The political campaign likely won’t have much of a public presence until later in the summer, but behind the scenes, Lenny Curry’s allies already raised substantial money and plan to roll out waves of community leaders to help sell his pension fix. The campaign — led by professional operatives and a political action committee called Yes for Jacksonville — will carry many of the same bells and whistles of Curry’s high-dollar mayoral run last year … City Hall can take an active role in community discussions about the sales tax, though the role local government can play is a bit nuanced. The city can pay for communications, like TV advertisements, that share information about Curry’s plan as long as those spots don’t “expressly advocate” how voters should mark their ballots … there is the more subtle kind of messaging the mayor has at his disposal as the city’s chief executive. Curry has said, for example, that in the absence of a clear plan like his to address the city’s pension debt, draconian cuts will be necessary for future budgets. He expects to roll out one such budget later this summer.
Top talker — “Selling Curry’s plan will require more than scare tactics and talk of ‘tough medicine’” via Ron Littlepage of the Florida Times-Union – “People are looking for straight, simple truth,” Curry said when he and his team met with the Times-Union editorial board and reporters last month. As that debate has now moved to whether there are better options to pay down the city’s public employees’ pension debt, which Curry insists there aren’t, his finance director, Mike Weinstein, may have offered more truth than Curry may have liked. “If you look at this purely financial in a silo,” Weinstein told the editorial board, “there are other better options. You pay for it now.” Weinstein’s comment about beginning to pay off that debt now instead of waiting 14 years, one proposal had been to ask voters to approve a half-cent sales tax that would go into effect immediately. Curry is right when he says the political reality is the Legislature and Gov. Scott would never allow that. Another option, however, doesn’t require the approval of the Legislature and Scott: The City Council could raise the millage rate. In fact, that’s one of the options preferred by the Pension Reform Task Force that spent months studying how to deal with the $1.7 billion unfunded liability in the Police and Fire Pension Fund. During the Times-Union session, Curry even referred to his plan in medical terms. “It’s tough medicine,” he said. Oh, really? Tough medicine would be paying the debt off now instead of passing it on to future generations.
“Lenny Curry to Pam Bondi: ‘Jax PFPF ignored the law’” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics – Curry and General Counsel Jason Gabriel have taken aim at the ‘arrogance and disregard for taxpayers’ and ‘blatant disregard of public records law’ by the Police and Fire Pension Fund, as it relates to soliciting Attorney General Bondi‘s opinion on the legality of the PFPF’s Senior Staff Voluntary Retirement Fund … Curry sent Bondi a letter, ahead of a communique expected from Gabriel. “The vote, predictably follows the Binding Legal Opinion of the General Counsel, which concluded that the JPFPF Board lacked authority to establish a ‘senior staff voluntary retirement plan’” … The board’s “recent effort,” writes Curry, is an “attempt to erode these principles” of consolidated government and “ignore the law.”
“Who won, lost Jax Council leadership elections?” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics – So who won the Jacksonville City Council leadership elections? The prima facie answer: President-designate Lori Boyer and Vice President-designate John Crescimbeni. Beyond those two obvious winners, some people’s stock went up, and some people’s went down.
“Tears, real talk at ‘straight allies’ meeting in NW Jax” via A.G. Gancarski of FloridaPolitics.com – … Outside lobbyists, brought in to sell the expansion to the council, got handshakes and smiles galore, but tangible support eluded them during the hearings the city council started, then truncated, this year … Orrin’s approach currently is more targeted than holistic: to make the case for HRO expansion to people living in Council Districts 7 through 10, ahead of an expected re-introduction of legislation later this year … culturally conservative, and wary of the potential consequences of HRO expansion … The crowd, which included two aides to council members who aren’t necessarily linked to full-throated HRO support, talked in a ‘safe space,’ so their names won’t be in the following accounts … reflective of a culture dealing with the gap between proscribed versions of reality and life as it actually is lived in 2016.
“Downtown Jacksonville is falling behind” via John Burr – If you are not moving forward, you are falling behind…
Here’s one of those annoying self-improvement sayings that have wider application. In this case, it fits Downtown Jacksonville like a handmade pair of Italian shoes.
The recent news concerning Downtown has not been of the moving-ahead type: Aetna announced it was moving 800 employees out of its Southbank office building to a suburban office park; the nonprofit charged with reviving Hemming Park has run out of money and trod hat-in-hand to a skeptical City Council for $100,000 in emergency funding; and the much-anticipated opening of the historic Bostwick Building into the Cowford Chophouse restaurant this summer is officially off schedule by months (but likely longer as you take a close look at the three-sided building shell that greets motorists as they drive into Downtown over the Main Street Bridge).
Then there are the Downtown projects at various times deemed vital to the city core’s resurgence but not heard about, to wit: the fate of the riverfront Berkman condo skeleton, abandoned half-finished nine years ago, looming over Bay Street like a headstone; the glacial pace of tearing down the old courthouse parking lot built over the river that caved in; the former courthouse itself, an obvious tear-down project on a valuable piece of public land that the city ignores, and the seemingly never-to-be renovation of four historic office buildings that haunt Laura Street like marble and concrete ghosts.
I almost forgot about The Jacksonville Landing – what happened to the grand plans for a teardown of that dingy waterfront monstrosity? Much haggling over architectural drawings for the past two years, but no action. And none contemplated.
Perhaps these projects are victims of Jacksonville’s great police and fire pension black hole, which seems to have sucked up not only all of the city’s money but also its collective memory about revitalizing Downtown.
But maybe that’s just a convenient excuse. There’s another tried and true expression that fits this situation: Don’t pay attention to what someone says, pay attention to what they do. In people’s actions, or lack thereof, you find their real intention.
“Mayor, city leaders urge citizens to be JaxReady this hurricane season” via the City of Jacksonville – Mayor Lenny Curry joined Director of Duval County Emergency Management Steve Woodard, National Weather Service Jacksonville Meteorologist in Charge Scott Cordero, and other city leaders to announce the release of the 2016 Emergency Preparedness Guide. The guide, which includes tools, tips and resources for residents and businesses to prepare for hurricane season, is available online at JaxReady.com and will be distributed in the Sunday edition of the Florida Times-Union. At the news conference, Curry urged citizens to know their evacuation zones, to get a plan, and to compile their kits now – before a storm strikes.
Above the fold: Molly Curry
Tweet, tweet: @Chrishandjax: Great to have @GwenGraham in Jacksonville!
On the campaign trail:
“Hans Tanzler goes up with first TV ad” via Daniel Ducassi of POLITICO Florida – … taking aim at the Obama administration. The cowboy-themed ad, titled “Rawhide,” accuses “some bad guys in Washington” of putting the country in debt, failing to protect the borders and weakening the nation’s military. Tanzler rides up on horseback with a rifle by his side as a narrator describes why Tanzler is the “hero” who can help save D.C. “Mr. Obama, you and your gang have made a mess in Washington,” Tanzler says. “And I’ve got one message from We The People: Get out of our town.”
“Julia Fletcher in CD 4 race” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics – There is one more candidate in the race, a political unknown who some Republicans at the beach (and elsewhere in the district) believe has a unique value add: Fletcher … Fletcher sees herself as the logical heir to the tradition of Crenshaw, Tillie Fowler, and Charles Bennett and uniquely able — as a 13-year Navy veteran with global experience in the War on Terror and the War on Drugs — to ensure that Jacksonville, which currently has the third largest Navy presence in the country, remains a ‘strategic hub for the Navy’ … Beyond national security issues, Fletcher emphasizes energy security as well, advocating a national energy policy that, as opposed to the current administration, emphasizes coal.
“Judge in ‘sham candidate’ state attorney case may make decision in next few days” via Larry Hannan of the Florida Times-Union – A large number of people in Jacksonville, including civil rights leaders, believe Kenny Leigh is a sham candidate who filed as a write-in to help 4th Judicial Circuit State Attorney Angela Corey get re-elected … Circuit Judge James Daniel must decide whether Leigh’s intent in becoming a write-in candidate for state attorney matters under the law … Daniel heard motions to dismiss a lawsuit filed against Leigh, best known for running a family law firm that only accepts men as clients, and Corey’s campaign manager, Alexander Pantinakis … Pantinakis filed Leigh’s candidacy paperwork shortly after Republican Melissa Nelson. By having an opponent in the general election, it closed the primary election to the 440,000 people in Clay, Duval and Nassau counties who are Democrats or have no political party affiliation. Daniel did not issue a ruling but said he would seek to get one out in the next few days. Elections officials have told Daniel they want the lawsuit dealt with by June 24 so they can start printing ballots.
“Ronnie Fussell re-election bid draws challenger” via Melissa Ross of Florida Politics – Duval County Clerk of Courts Fussell has a challenger for re-election. Democrat Paula Bartlett has filed for the race. The attorney and small-business owner says she’s running “because the current officeholder is holding the entire community hostage to his own discriminatory agenda.”
Fussell became the butt of national jokes when he ordered courthouse weddings to be curtailed in Jacksonville after same-sex marriage became legal nationwide. Bartlett is running on a platform of re-instituting full marriage services at the downtown courthouse.
Leaving aside the weddings flap, it’s worth noting that amid all the recent (deserved) criticism of the Duval Dems for not fielding challengers in major races like the State Attorney and Public Defender contests, this is one race that has largely flown under the radar that does, in fact, have a bipartisan contest on the ballot.
That said, Bartlett’s fundraising is negligible, with a mere $100.00 in her campaign account. And her campaign is largely premised around the single issue of courthouse weddings. Fussell, a popular incumbent who will first face fellow Republican Mike Riley in the August primary, has widespread name recognition and a heavyweight list of political supporters in the #jaxpol universe.
“Duval School Board candidate charged with stalking at elementary school in 2010” via A.G. Gancarski of FloridaPolitics.com – Bradford Hall is a ubiquitous presence at Duval County School Board events, and hopes to become more ubiquitous, as he is running to replace Connie Hall on the board … one issue that may come up is a charge of “simple stalking” at a Duval County school from 2010, one that was pleaded down to a breach of peace … The school principal, Michelle Quarles, noted Hall had been a volunteer at the school, but because of what the officer called ‘bizarre, hostile behavior,’ he had been ordered to leave the campus early in November 2010 … Describing himself as ‘at war’ and on a ‘divine, God-inspired assignment,’ a curious position to take when communicating with an elementary school principal, Hall wrote that he had ‘no tolerance for ineffectively managing the learning environment.’
“Jacksonville magistrate judge gets support from Marco Rubio” via Larry Hannan of the Florida Times-Union – U.S. Magistrate Judge Patricia Barksdale is one step closer to becoming a U.S. District judge in the Middle District of Florida … Rubio announced he supported Barksdale’s confirmation. Under Senate procedure, nominees for a judgeship cannot get a vote without the support of their home state senators. Barksdale now has the support of Rubio, a Republican and Florida’s other senator, Bill Nelson. Nelson indicated his support for Barksdale last month. President Obamanominated Barksdale … to fill a judicial vacancy in the Middle District, which stretches from Jacksonville to Naples. Obama also appointed William Jung, a private attorney in Tampa to fill a second vacancy. Rubio also announced his support of Jung.
“NRA, Jax businessmen spar over Charles McBurney judge bid” via A.G. Gancarski of FloridaPolitics.com — The NRA issued a sharply-written “Florida Alert” email alerting supporters to this attempt to counter the NRA’s aggressive campaign. McBurney has now sent out an email asking for help to become a judge. We know it went to attorneys and we suspect he is trying to call in favors from prosecutors … asking people to email, call or write Governor Scott in support of his candidacy … his email didn’t mention the conduct that makes him unfit to serve on the bench … he refused to hold a hearing on the “Burden of Proof” bill, SB-344 by Sen. Rob Bradley, which restores the presumption of innocence in self-defense cases.” Not everyone agrees with that read. Exhibit A: Jacksonville’s Southside Business Men’s Club, which is mobilizing its members in support of McBurney … The letter urges Governor Scott to “mute the noise being generated by the NRA and consider Charles’ appointment based his experience, superior record of performance, and more importantly the support he has not only from District 16 who he has effectively represented for the past two terms in the Florida House, but also from the Jacksonville business community.”
“Florida’s home-grown terrorists” via John Burr – We learned this week that families in Florida are being victimized by home-grown terrorists – the fast-breeding Florida black bear.
“Bears continue to terrorize homeowners and prevent families from allowing children to play outside in some areas,” wrote Marion Hammer, a past president of the National Rifle Association and the executive director of the Unified Sportsmen of Florida, in a letter to the state’s game commission.
Can you imagine? Marauding bears swooping down on suburban subdivisions, scattering golf foursomes and knocking over badminton nets. Terrorist bears, high on Tupelo honey and fueled by promises of martyrdom in the next life, ambushing boys and girls as they play hide-and-seek in their backyards.
Hammer was arguing the need for a second Florida bear hunt, which game officials are debating. In October 2015, Florida held its first bear hunt in more than 20 years. It was supposed to last a week, bur Florida hunters proved so good at killing bears, the hunt was called off after two days and 304 bear kills.
Maybe you thought the bear hunts were all about thinning out (also known as harvesting) an expanding population of bears, like they do with the deer, in the long run, good for the critters because they don’t end up overpopulating the ever dwindling wild places where they live.
Heck, no. This is war, buddy. It is our duty to obliterate terrorists, wherever we find them, particularly if they are raiding our garbage cans. Thank you, Marion, for setting the record straight.
“Audrey Gibson to chair Duval Dems?” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics – State Sen. Gibson told FloridaPolitics.com that she is ‘very seriously considering’ a run for chair of the Duval County Democratic Executive Committee … If Gibson is to run for chair and win, she expects to ‘turn the dial up’ with regard to the often less-than-inspiring performance of the local Democratic Party … [and] would ‘build a bench, which we don’t have.’
“Cindy Graves renews Duval GOP’s fundraising focus” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics – The first quarter of 2016 saw just $7,500 come into the Republican Party of Duval County, an amount that didn’t even equal the $8,200 spent on the holiday party at the Florida Yacht Club. Quarter four of 2015 likewise underwhelmed, with $6,600 brought in … With the 2016 election season in full swing, one of Duval GOP chair Cindy Graves’ priorities is getting the traditionally strong fundraising of the local party back in gear, she told FloridaPolitics.com in response to an inquiry about party finances … ‘the Republican Party of Duval County is united and powering up every tool we have in our legendary political tool box,’ including ‘the kind of aggressive fundraising effort we are famous for here in Northeast Florida.’
Happening Monday – 2nd Quarter JAXUSA Partnership Luncheon
Happening Thursday – ImpactJAX Mock Legislative Session at Intuition Ale Works
“Rankings: UNF technology students some of the best bang for their buck” via Jensen Werley of the Jacksonville Business Journal – The University of North Florida is in the top 50 for return on investment on computing education degrees — and it’s ranked No. 2 in the state. PayScale, an organization that collects and shares data on compensation, compiled a list of schools that have the best return on investment for technology degrees. The ranking takes universities and colleges across the country and looks at the return on investment on the degree over 20 years. The annual ROI is then calculated as a percentage of expected ROI received each year after graduation. UNF is ranked No. 39 overall, with an annual ROI of 12.2 percent. In the state, UNF only ranked behind No. 14 UF — which had an ROI of 12.9 percent — but was ranked higher than other major state universities like Florida State and University of Central Florida.
“$15 million helicopters move through JAXPORT” – Highly trained master riggers working for stevedoring company Portus moved four multimillion dollar helicopters through JAXPORT’s heavy lift and specialty cargo berth at Blount Island Marine Terminal, one of the nation’s highest weight-bearing capacity docks. The helicopters are 50 feet in length, weigh 10,000 pounds each, and are worth $15 million apiece. Workers used specialty equipment to roll the helicopters off the U.S.-flagged Liberty Global Logistics ro/ro vessel Liberty Pride. The helicopters, which arrived at JAXPORT from the Middle East, are owned by a U.S. Government ally and are being trucked to a manufacturing facility in the U.S. Southeast for refurbishing. Each helicopter will receive $10 million in upgrades before being shipped back to the Middle East through JAXPORT.
“JTA seeks organizer for ‘healthy farmers market’” – The Jacksonville Transportation Authority is seeking a nonprofit organization to operate a healthy farmers market at the Rosa Parks Transit Station every Friday from 9 a.m.-4 p.m. The purpose of the market is to provide fresh fruits and vegetables to our transit customers who may not have ready access to a grocery store. All materials should be provided by the nonprofit, to include tables, tent, produce, sales force, bags, etc. To submit interest, please contact Aleizha Batson at [email protected].
“Jacksonville screens controversial vaccination documentary” via Melissa Ross of Florida Politics – VAXXED, the controversial documentary alleging a cover-up by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention over its studies around autism and vaccines, is screening this week in Jacksonville at the Regal Beach Boulevard Stadium 18. The film first gained notoriety when Oscar-winning actor Robert DeNiro announced VAXXED would screen at the TriBeca Film Festival, then pulled it after protests.
Although a wealth of scientific studies found no link between autism spectrum disorders in children and vaccines, the film purports to document previously unreleased Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data showing a statistical association between the introduction of the MMR vaccine and the upward spike in the number of autism cases in the U.S.
The fact that VAXXED is showing in Jacksonville is no accident. For whatever reason, there is a relatively large community of parents and activists in North Florida engaged in treating ASD’s and raising awareness about their impact on kids and families. To be clear, this community is not monolithic in their interpretations of the causes of autism, so these screenings should be interesting, to say the least.
“Jacksonville Zoo talks about safety measures in wake of child’s fall into Cincinnati Zoo enclosure” via Erica Bennett of Action News Jax – “If it was one of my kids, I’d want them to do whatever possible to keep them safe,” Blue Manuel said. And that’s what the Cincinnati Zoo did by fatally shooting Harambe. Tony Vecchio, Executive Director for Jacksonville Zoo and Gardens, understands. “If I was in the situation of the Director in Cincinnati, I would have made the same call. A child’s life was in danger and you just can’t take the chance of trying different options,” he said. We toured Jacksonville Zoo and Gardens to see how safe its enclosures are. In addition to netting, there’s a safety and security manager on staff, exhibit guides who remind visitors to be alert, and periodic drills. “We practice the plan and think of all these different scenarios. What if an animal gets out?” Vecchio explained … in his years at Jacksonville Zoo and Gardens, no one has fallen into an exhibit. He plans to keep it that way. Zoo staff is designing a new area for gorillas and primates. It’s called “African Forest” and should be finished by 2018.
Save the date:
“Armada Advance in US Open Cup play with 2-1 win over Charleston” via Kartik Krishnaiyer – The Jacksonville Armada FC advanced to the Fourth Round of the Lamar Hunt US Open Cup (USOC) with a 2-1 extra time victory over the Charleston Battery Wednesday. The match was the first competitive game between two clubs that could become regional rivals. The win meant a great deal to Armada FC Head Coach Tony Meola, who as a player captained the Lamar Hunt, owned Kansas City Wizards (now Sporting Kansas City) to the MLS Cup in 2000 and the U.S. Open Cup in 2004.
“It means a lot to me personally,” said Meola. “I’ve said it right from the start, this has Lamar Hunt’s name on it, and he’s a guy who was pretty close to me and really was special to me when I was in Kansas City for nine years. We said we were going to do our best and put our best team out and that’s what we did tonight.”
The Armada were one of three teams from the state of Florida to advance to the Fourth Round Wednesday. The Fort Lauderdale Strikers and Tampa Bay Rowdies also advanced, while MLS’ Orlando City SC had a bye in the first three rounds of the competition.
In the USOC, Armada next faces Orlando City SC June 15. The Lions have won just once in the club’s last nine MLS league games. Jacksonville returns to NASL action Saturday with a trip to Cary, NC to face the Carolina RailHawks. The match kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET and will be televised nationally on beIN Sports.
Happy birthday on Monday to state Rep. Charles McBurney.
