A Cherry Communications poll conducted last week of Jacksonville’s House District 12 race shows Clay Yarborough has opened up a 19-point lead over his nearest competition.
The crowded field, according to the live phone poll of 304 likely Republican voters, is vying for second place behind the former Jacksonville City Council president.
Stan Jordan, a former state legislator from HD 12, comes in second with 13 percent, remarkable given that he got into the race a month ago and his campaign hasn’t raised significant funds.
Other candidates who have invested more time and resources are faring even worse.
Former Jacksonville City Councilman Don Redman comes in second at 10 percent. Fundraising throughout his campaign has been lackluster, and Redman has not scored meaningful endorsements.
Redman and Yarborough have targeted the same socially conservative base, but it appears Yarborough is its preference.
Two other candidates languish in single digits, in a poll with a 5.5 percent margin of error.
Terrance Freeman, assistant to Jacksonville City Councilman Aaron Bowman, is polling at an anemic 8 percent despite institutional endorsements from the National Rifle Association, the JAX Chamber, and the Fraternal Order of Police.
Mark MacLean, an elder care lawyer and political novice, is polling at just 5 percent, and appears to be running out the clock on a campaign that never got traction.
Hope for the field rests in swaying undecideds, which came in at 31 percent in this survey, though it’s unclear how that will happen.
Yarborough is well ahead in fundraising. As of the last filing from all candidates, he had more cash-on-hand than every other candidate in the race combined.
Complicating matters for the field: all are competing for the same rhetorical and ideological space, as a recent forum revealed few material differences between the candidates.