Polling recap: Several state Senate races remain close as primary nears

APTOPIX Election Wisconsin

For better or worse, all eyes will be on several Florida Senate races come election night.

FloridaPolitics.com commissioned a series of polls in recent weeks to look at how candidates in Senate District 17, 19, 23 and 28 were faring. In many cases the surveys — conducted by St. Pete Polls — showed tight races leading up to the Aug. 30 primary. Associated Industries of Florida looked at how Democrats were faring in Senate Districts 31 and 34.

Senate District 17

It might just be one of the nastiest races of the election cycle, and recent polling shows the race between Reps. Debbie Mayfield and Ritch Workman is close.

The survey, conducted on Aug. 25, found 37 percent of likely Republican voters polled said they were backing Mayfield. About 33 percent of respondents said they were backing Workman.

According to the survey, 41 percent of respondents had already cast a ballot. Nearly 59 percent of voters polled said they planned to vote in the election.

A third Republican, Mike Thomas, is also running for the seat.

The margin of error was 3.6 percent.

Senate District 19

It’s still anyone’s game in Senate District 19.

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Those were findings of a recent poll conducted for FloridaPolitics.com. The survey found the race is essentially tied, proving the outcome will depend heavily on ground game and get-out-the-vote efforts in the final days of primary.

The survey, conducted Aug. 24, found 26 percent likely Democratic voters said they were backing Ed Narain. Darryl Rouson was in second with 24 percent, followed followed by Betty Reed with 19 percent. Augie Ribeiro is polling at 17 percent, while 14 percent of voters said they were undecided.

Fifty-four percent of respondents said they had already voted in the primary.

The margin of error was 3.5 percent.

Senate District 23

Four points separate three Republicans running in Senate District 23, according recent polling.

The survey, conducted Aug. 22, showed 26 percent of likely Republican voters were backing Rep. Greg Steube. Nora Patterson was at 24 percent, while former state Rep. Doug Holder was at 22 percent.

Rep. Ray Pilon is in fourth with 16 percent, an improvement from a similar poll taken about a month ago.

A July poll by St. Pete Polls showed Holder was leading the pack with 29 percent of the vote. Steube was at 23 percent and Patterson was at 20 percent.

Republican Rick Levine is also running. He received 4 percent in the poll, and 9 percent of respondents said they were undecided.

The margin of error was 3.8 percent.

Senate District 28

Call it a nail-biter.

That’s what FloridaPolitics.com did back in July after a poll showed the Senate District 28 race was a toss-up.

The survey found 36 percent of likely Republican primary voters were backing Rep. Matt Hudson, while 34 percent picked Rep. Kathleen Passidomo. At the time, 30 percent of likely Republican primary voters said they were undecided.

Hudson has received the backing of the Republican Liberty Caucus, the Eagle Forum PAC and Florida Family Action. He’s also received the backing of Florida Realtors PAC and the Florida Professional Firefighters.

Passidomo has been endorsed by Sen. Garrett Richter and the Florida Chamber of Commerce, and has had fundraising help from Sens. Bill Galvano and Wilton Simpson, both in line for the Senate presidency.

The most recent poll was conducted in July. It had a margin of error 4.4 percent.

Senate District 31

Jeff Clemens could be poised for a comeback.

A tracking poll from Associated Industries of Florida earlier this month showed the Lake Worth Democrat was leading Irv Slosberg by 4 percentage points in Senate District 31. The numbers were a complete reversal from about a month ago, when Clemens trailed Slosberg by double digits.

According to the AIF tracking survey, Clemens leads the field with 33 percent support. Slosberg is in second with 29 percent, followed by Emmanuel Morel with 4 percent. The survey found 34 percent of people were still undecided.

A similar survey in July found Slosberg led Clemens 44 percent to 13 percent.

Senate District 34

It might not be as close as some of the other races this election, but the Senate District 34 primary is still worth a look.

A recent Associated Industries of Florida survey found Gary Farmer led the pack with 28 percent support, followed by Gwyn Clarke-Reed with 21 percent. Jim Waldman received 13 percent.

The survey found 39 percent of those polled were still undecided in the district, which follows the Atlantic Coast from Fort Lauderdale through Boynton Beach.

The survey of 300 likely Democratic voters had a margin of error of 6 percent.

Staff Reports



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