Peter Schorsch
A new poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shows Charlie Crist maintaining a double-digit lead over incumbent Republican David Jolly.
Crist leads Jolly by a 50-39 percent margin. The 11 percent of undecided voters lean Democratic by a 37-20 percent margin.
Despite this healthy lead, the Crist campaign would do well not to crow too loudly about these latest numbers. That’s because, as Republican political consultant Nick Hansen first noted on Twitter, Crist and his allies have spent more than $1 million more than Jolly since it last released its internal polling to the media and Crist’s lead has dropped by a point. In July, a poll from Anzalone Liszt Grove Research showed Crist leading Jolly by 12 points.
Unfortunately for Jolly, Crist does not have another $11 million to spend in order for the gap to close.
I, for one, do not believe Crist is up 11 or 12 points on Jolly. In fact, I am more confident with the recent survey from St. Pete Polls which shows the race a relative dead heat. My gut tells me Crist has pulled in front of Jolly because of a) Jolly’s debate performance and b) Crist’s resource advantage, but I don’t believe Crist has yet pulled away, as this internal poll would suggest.
The trouble for Jolly is — and it was my wife, Michelle Todd Schorsch, (a longtime Crist acolyte) who first suggested this issue to me — the indignant, if not angry, David Jolly in the local media and on the debate stage is nothing like the David Jolly first introduced to Pinellas voters when he ran against Alex Sink.
According to Crist’s internal polling, Jolly’s net favorable rating has shrunk from +23 to +14. As much as I disagree with the topline of this poll, I wholeheartedly believe this favorability number is accurate.
The more Jolly bares his teeth attacking Crist, the worse his numbers get.
As I’ve written before, Jolly’s hatred of Crist is seemingly personal. My theory is that Jolly’s resentment of Crist goes back, at least partially, to when Crist was governor and had to select a replacement for Mel Martinez in the U.S. Senate. The late congressman to whom Jolly owes his political career, C.W. “Bill” Young, was asked to interview for the position. To Crist’s surprise, the Indian Shores Republican arrived at the meeting in an untucked polo shirt and sneakers, and the 78-year-old proceeded to take charge — telling the governor directly he was not interested in an interim role as U.S. senator. Young’s camp did not appreciate Crist subjecting their guy to a dog-and-pony show.
Jolly’s animus for Crist has been on display for months, beginning with Jolly ill-advised decision to crash Crist’s campaign announcement. This animus infects Jolly’s tone when he speaks of Crist. Jolly seems almost to seethe when he talks about his opponent.
All of this is out of character with the measured, polite, and precise communication style that helped Jolly win a special election and build a national profile as a maverick Republican determined to reform the political process. Jolly is the son of a preacher, yet he, according to one Crist campaign aide, would not acknowledge Crist when both men were face-to-face backstage before the first debate.
It was at the debate when ‘Mean David’ was on full display. At first, I though Jolly had won the debate because he had landed the most jabs and scored more zingers, but as I read the comments on social media, my mind changed. Jolly was being compared to Donald Trump because of how many times he interrupted Crist.
For the first time since I met him, David Jolly, one of the last true gentlemen, was being described as “rude.”
That’s not the David Jolly I know.
Perhaps Jolly thinks there is no other way to win in this solidly Democratic district than with the playbook he’s running.
But I doubt ‘Mean David’ can win this election.
