Peter Schorsch
The latest on the presidential campaign:
Tuesday
5:45 — Authorities say a woman campaigning for Donald Trump outside a South Florida polling place pepper-sprayed a Hillary Clinton voter during a confrontation.
Jupiter police Sgt. Bradley Vince says officers responded to the center Tuesday morning following multiple 911 calls. Police say 52-year-old Tom Garrecht and 58-year-old Donna Tatlici had exchanged words as Garrecht went in to vote, and the argument continued as he left.
Statements from Garrecht, Tatlici and witnesses conflicted. Tatlici says she sprayed Garrecht because she was afraid of him. At some point, the woman was knocked to the ground, but it wasn’t clear if Garrecht was purposefully attacking her or flailing around after being pepper-sprayed.
The state attorney’s office will decide whether file assault charges against Garrecht. No arrests were made Tuesday. Both people were treated at the scene.
4 p.m. — Hillary Clinton is besting Donald Trump when it comes to the ground game.
A new Morning Consult/POLITICO exit poll found more than twice as many voters said they were contacted by Clinton’s campaign than Trump’s campaign. The poll found 17 percent of voter said they were contacted by the Clinton campaign, while 8 percent said they were contacted by Trump’s.
Another 9 percent said they were contacted by both campaigns.
The exiting polling, however, found most voters (62 percent) said they were not contacted by either presidential campaign.
The polling, according to Morning Consult, shows Clinton’s ground game is on par with President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, when 13 percent of voters said they heard from the Obama campaign.
The Morning Consult/POLITICO exit poll of 9,704 voters was conducted from Oct. 18 through Nov. 8. The interviews were conducted online, and exit poll has a margin of error of 1 percent.
1:20 p.m. — Final forecast models from FiveThirtyEight.com give Hillary Clinton is a 71 percent favorite to win the election — according to the polls-only model — and a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model. Both models are essentially the same now, so they show about the same forecast. This new outlook is a “meaningful improvement for Clinton in the past 48 hours as the news cycle has taken a final half-twist in her favor. Her chances have increased from about 65 percent.”
Clinton is being favored in states and congressional districts, for 323 electoral votes, including all the states President Obama won in 2012 except Ohio and Iowa, but adding North Carolina.
However, because Clinton’s leads in North Carolina and Florida are somewhat tenuous, the average number of electoral votes is forecast as Clinton is 302, which would be equivalent to her winning either Florida or North Carolina but not both.
12:45 p.m. — Ready for the election to be over? You aren’t alone.
A new Morning Consult/POLITICO exit poll of early and Election Day voters found that 85 percent of voters “just want it to be over.”
“The 2016 election does seem to have brought voters together in one sense: Nearly everyone agrees it’s been terrible, regardless of political affiliation,” wrote Cameron Easley for Morning Consult. “Republicans and Democrats more or less agree it’s been a rattling experience, as seven in 10 said it’s made them feel anxious and nervous. More than eight in 10 (85 percent) said they ‘just want it to be over.’”
The exit poll also showed 53 percent of voters said they felt “angry” about the election, and 50 percent said they felt “sad” about the election. Independent voters, according to exit polling, appeared to be the most discouraged, with 60 percent saying it made them angry, 58 percent said it made them sad, and 47 percent said it made them depressed.
The exit poll showed 89 percent of independent voters said they “just want it to be over.”
The Morning Consult/POLITICO exit poll of 6,782 early and Election Day voters was conducted from Oct. 18 through Nov. 8.
12 p.m. — Spanish-language network Univision is predicting Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump in Florida by 2.2 percentage points, a factor of the large turnout among Hispanics in the nation’s biggest battleground state.
POLITICO Florida reports that the Miami-based TV network used analysis tools to find Trump’s chances of winning the Sunshine State are 39 percent because of his poor showing among Hispanic voters.
Univision forecasters say Clinton will win Florida, 48.5-46.3 percent.
Other polling shows the race too close to call in Florida, as 6.6 million voters have cast ballots early of by mail. By comparison, 8.5 million Floridians voted in 2012.
In early voting, Democrats have cast 89,102 more ballots than Republicans, with nearly 1 million Hispanics voting early by mail or in person, versus 552,000 in 2012.
11 a.m. — It’s been called the “Twitter Election,” and now the social media giant has a few statistics to back up that nickname.
Candidates, journalists and voters have used Twitter every step of the way to document the historic election. According to Twitter, people in the United States sent 1 billion tweets about the election since the primary debates in August 2015.
Democrat Hillary Clinton’s most retweeted tweet was her June 9 “Delete your account” tweet, according to Twitter. It was also the most retweeted tweet of the entire election.
Republican Donald Trump’s most retweeted tweet was his response to Clinton on June 9, which said “How long did it take your staff of 823 people to think that up — and where are your 33,000 emails that you deleted.”
10:45 a.m. — Polls are now open all across Florida.
Secretary of State Ken Detzner said in a statement that all of the polls “opened on time statewide and voters are currently casting ballots in 5,836 precincts across the state.” Polls are open until 7 p.m. local time, and Detzner reminded Floridians that “voters in line at 7 p.m. will be permitted to vote.”
“As we do with every election we have staff communicating with each county’s Supervisor of Elections throughout the day and ready to provide assistance should it be requested. The early voting process in Florida went smoothly,” he said in a statement Tuesday morning. “As of this morning, reports from the counties show that 3,874,929 voters voted early at the polls and that 2,636,783 vote-by-mail ballots have been cast. This represents a turnout of more than 50 percent before Election Day voting had even begun.”
Detzner said the Division of Election is communicating with the U.S. Postal Service to make sure all vote-by-mail ballots are received by Supervisors of Elections by poll closing time at 7 p.m. The Department of State is also monitoring security state wide, and no issues have been reported.
A reminder to Floridians waiting for returns tonight: Florida has two time zone, and preliminary elections will not be available on the Florida Election Watch website until 8 p.m.
8:10 a.m. — The lone American off the planet has cast his vote from space, keeping with NASA’s motto of “Vote while you float.” The Associated Press reports that astronaut Shane Kimbrough filed his ballot Monday in Tuesday’s presidential election from the International Space Station sometime over the past few days. He arrived at the orbiting lab in mid-October. Before launching on a four-month mission, Kimbrough said it was going to be special, being able to say ‘I voted from space.’ By the time he’s back on Earth in February, America will have a new commander in chief.” We don’t know for whom he voted.
8 a.m. — Pool report from WaPo’s Laura Vozzella early this morning: “Senator Kaine and his wife, Anne Holton, have arrived at their local polling place, the Hermitage Methodist Home in Richmond, Virginia about 5:50 a.m. They walked over from their house. … With Kaine is his dad, Al Kaine, and his mom, Kathy. … Kaine and his wife showed their photo IDs and were handed ballots. … Kaine and his wife showed their photo IDs and were handed fill-in-the-bubble ballots. Then they fed them into the machine. Right before them in line was Minerva Turpin, 99, president of the residents association. … Turpin an ‘I voted’ sticker on Kaine after he turned in his ballot. After Turpin planted the sticker, Kaine planted a kiss in her cheek … and he left the building.”
7:30 a.m. — Democratic consultant Kevin Cate is projecting Hillary Clinton will “win Florida, and therefore, the presidency.”
“Floridians have been voting since September 19, 2016, and Hillary has led the Real Clear Politics (RCP) Florida average almost every single one of those days.
Since September 25, 2016, she’s led or been tied with Donald Trump all but four days — the Comey fallout, and tonight, as I write this, she’s down 0.2 percent.
At FloridaTurnout.com, we are treating every day votes are cast as one inning. In Florida, we have 51 innings, or 51 days when votes are being cast by mail, early, or on Election Day. We believe there are only about three million votes left.
By using the RCP average, which inherently also averages the turnout models of fairly conservative leaning public polling, and voter files from 67 Supervisors of Elections, we are able to snapshot public sentiment and couple it with actual vote counts, every day.
Those public polls obviously have a large “undecided” vote, which we’ve pushed into a two-party vote based on the margins of the decided vote.
We’ve also stripped out 2.5 percent from the two-party vote because we know, from some experience and some internals, that Florida will have way more under or other candidate votes than the last two presidential cycles. However, it really doesn’t matter in our model whether that number is 2.5 percent or 5 percent, because we are only really trying to extrapolate one number, a win margin.
Our model shows Clinton leading the two-party vote right now by 1.09% and we have not seen any data to suggest otherwise, and boy has there been a lot of data thrown around.”
Read the rest of Cate’s memo here.
12:01 a.m. — Hillary Clinton wins Dixville Notch midnight vote. On a frigid night in the region about halfway between the Maine and Canadian borders, the small northern New Hampshire town came alive for several minutes of kitschy democratic conflict. With eight residents voting and five times as many reporters watching, Dixville Notch has spoken. CNN’s Gregory Krieg and Sonia Moghe report the final tally in the first-in-the-nation vote: Clinton 4, Donald Trump 2, Gary Johnson 1 — and a single write-in surprise: Mitt Romney. This latest round of wee hours voting extends a tradition that traces back more than a half-century.
Monday
1:25 p.m. — A month ago, Speaker Paul Ryan told House Republicans he would neither defend nor work for Donald Trump’s election. Now America’s top elected Republican is talking unity.
Ryan said in an interview Monday on WTMJ-AM that “I do not want to harm our team going into the election. I want to unify our team going into the election.”
The Wisconsin congressman said in a statement Sunday that the way to end the Clinton era is to elect Donald Trump. It was one of the first explicit calls for electing Trump since Ryan effectively abandoned the presidential candidate over crude, predatory remarks about groping women.
Ryan is seeking re-election as speaker. Some House Republicans have criticized him for his tepid support for Trump.
1:05 p.m. — The lone American off the planet has cast his vote from space. That’s in keeping with NASA’s motto of “Vote while you float.”
NASA said Monday that astronaut Shane Kimbrough filed his ballot from the International Space Station sometime over the past few days. He arrived at the orbiting lab in mid-October. Before launching, Kimbrough said it was going to be special, being able to say “I voted from space.”
NASA says the previous U.S. space station resident, Kate Rubins, also cast an absentee ballot from up there, before returning to Earth a week ago.
A 1997 Texas law allows U.S. astronauts to vote from space. For NASA astronauts, home is Houston when they’re not circling the globe.
1:05 p.m. — President Barack Obama is making an explicit pitch to Michigan’s auto workers. He says that Donald Trump doesn’t care about their future.
Obama is campaigning Monday for Hillary Clinton in Ann Arbor, outside Detroit. He said he and Democrats have “earned some credibility here” after saving the auto industry through federal bailouts early in Obama’s presidency.
Obama said in contrast, Trump said Washington could have let the auto companies go bankrupt. He said if even two of the major auto companies had gone bankrupt, it could have cost a million U.S. jobs and killed Michigan’s auto industry.
Obama says autoworkers shouldn’t be “bamboozled” by the Republican business mogul.
1 p.m. — President Barack Obama is making an explicit pitch to Michigan’s auto workers that Donald Trump doesn’t care about their future.
Obama is campaigning Monday for Hillary Clinton in Ann Arbor, outside Detroit. He said he and Democrats have “earned some credibility here” after saving the auto industry through federal bailouts early in Obama’s presidency.
Obama said in contrast, Trump said Washington could have let the auto companies go bankrupt. He said if even two of the major auto companies had gone bankrupt, it could have cost a million U.S. jobs and killed Michigan’s auto industry.
Obama says autoworkers shouldn’t be “bamboozled” by the Republican business mogul.
12:55 p.m. — Police officials in New York say they plan a show of force for Election Day equal to New Year’s Eve in Times Square and last year’s visit by Pope Francis.
Mayor Bill de Blasio and top NYPD officials said Monday that more than 5,000 police officers will be assigned on Tuesday to secure midtown Manhattan, where both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will spend election night. Police also will be posted at polling places across the city.
The contingent includes heavy weapon units trained to respond quickly to terror threats. Both uniformed and plainclothes officers will flood the subways and crowded areas like Times Square.
Streets will be closed around the New York Hilton, scene of Trump’s gathering, and the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center, scene of Clinton’s festivities.
12:50 p.m. — Hillary Clinton is ending her campaign with a decidedly positive message, after days of focusing on attacking Donald Trump.
Clinton Is telling voters they don’t have to accept a “dark and divisive” future, saying she doesn’t recognize the country Trump describes in his campaign speeches. The Democratic presidential candidate is promising a brighter future that will address the economic inequality facing America.
She said: “Tomorrow you can vote for a hopeful, inclusive, bighearted America.”
Clinton is campaigning in Pittsburgh, a crucial area in a key battleground state. She’ll return to Pennsylvania on Monday night for a campaign rally with her husband, former President Bill Clinton, President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama. She’s also making stops in Michigan and North Carolina.
12:40 p.m. — Chelsea Clinton says Donald Trump has fueled the bullying in schools that her mother, Hillary Clinton, wants to stop.
The former first daughter is introducing President Barack Obama at a rally Monday for her mother in Ann Arbor, Michigan. She says Obama hasn’t gotten enough credit for progress on his watch.
Chelsea Clinton said if Americans care about health care, jobs, women’s rights and LGBT equality, they need to vote on Tuesday. She’s making a particular pitch to Michigan’s autoworkers in nearby Detroit.
Chelsea Clinton says she’s so proud that her two children were born while Obama was president.
12:35 p.m. — Hillary Clinton is being introduced by Tom Colicchio, famous for his role as a judge on the television show “Top Chef.”
The celebrity chef urged voters in Pittsburgh Monday to support Clinton.
He said he met Clinton when she was a senator from New York and she would urge him to use foods from upstate New York farmers.
He said Clinton “can tie this country together.”
The two embraced when she took the stage.
Clinton is spending the final hours before Election Day on a four-state tour of battleground states.
12 p.m. — Donald Trump’s running mate is urging Republican voters to “come home” and ensure that Democrat Hillary Clinton “is never elected president of the United States.”
Mike Pence told a Duluth, Minnesota, crowd Monday that Clinton would bring “the politics of personal enrichment” and “outright corruption” to the Oval Office.
He dismissed the FBI’s Sunday announcement that the agency has found no new evidence of criminal wrongdoing in Clinton’s handling of national security information while secretary of state.
Pence noted that FBI Director James Comey had previously confirmed the presence of classified material in emails sent on a private server Clinton used. Pence insisted that amounts to a crime.
The Indiana governor plans at least two more rallies in battleground states before Election Day.
11:55 a.m. — Donald Trump is criticizing the FBI’s decision not to criminally charge Hillary Clinton. He says “now it’s up to the American people to deliver justice at the ballot box.”
Trump kicked off his Election Day eve blitz with a rally Monday in Florida. He told the Sarasota crowd that “the system is rigged, but at least we know it.”
He claimed that “our country is a laughing stock all over the world.”
The Republican nominee then pantomimed quotation marks when he said the word “justice” as he hit the FBI and the Department of Justice for their handling of the case.
FBI Director James Comey notified Congress Sunday that a review of new emails connected to Clinton’s servers did not produce evidence that would warrant charges.
11:45 a.m. — An ex-aide to former President Bill Clinton alleged in a hacked email that Chelsea Clinton used the family’s charitable foundation to help underwrite her 2010 wedding.
The 2012 exchange between Doug Band and Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta was released by the WikiLeaks organization. Stolen messages have chronicled tensions within the Clinton Foundation between Band and the daughter of the Democratic presidential nominee.
Band told Podesta that Chelsea Clinton was gossiping to outsiders that she was investigating questionable spending. Band suggested that she is the one who should be scrutinized for “using foundation resources for her wedding.” He did not provide details about this. A spokeswoman for Chelsea Clinton declined to comment.
Band was later forced out amid issues with his outside consulting firm.
11:40 a.m. — Donald Trump is kicking off his last, breakneck day of campaigning before polls open with a rally in Sarasota, Florida.
Trump is telling thousands of supporters packed into a local fairgrounds arena Monday that the election is now in their hands.
He told them: “Get out there. I mean, I did my thing. I worked.”
Trump is planning to continue a frenzied campaign pace, with rallies in five states Monday, including North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Michigan.
Trump is also continuing to paint rival Hillary Clinton as a corrupt and alluding to the scrutiny of her use of a private email server as secretary of state.
Trump is also having some fun. At one point, he held up a mask in his likeness and complimented its hair.
11:30 a.m. — The White House says it will “neither defend nor criticize” FBI Director James Comey’s decision to send a new letter to Congress about Hillary Clinton’s emails.
That’s the same phrasing the White House used when Comey initially announced that the FBI was looking into more emails related to its investigation of Clinton. In a follow-up letter Sunday, Comey said the FBI review was completed and it was standing by its recommendation that no charges be filed.
White House spokesman Josh Earnest on Monday told reporters aboard Air Force One that the White House hasn’t been briefed on the investigation and didn’t receive advance notice about Comey’s latest letter.
Earnest says Obama still has confidence in Comey.
11:15 a.m. — Rochester, New Hampshire, is a reliable bellwether vote, says James Pindell of The Boston Globe. “As this small former mill city goes,” Pindell writes, “so goes New Hampshire. And if Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump doesn’t win New Hampshire, where polls show him tied with Democrat Hillary Clinton, it becomes extremely unlikely that he will be the next president. If Clinton loses New Hampshire, she would still have a path to win.” Rochester has a “crystal ball made of granite” in predicting the overall New Hampshire vote, as it has done correctly in the last four presidential elections. “The city of 30,000, about 20 miles north of Portsmouth, is also a microcosm for an increasingly politically polarized nation,” Pindell says. “Rochester was home to the state’s largest and loudest tea party group, whose founder was a Donald Trump delegate to the Republican National Convention before he pleaded guilty for his role in the Bundy ranch standoff with the federal government.”
11 a.m. — Final polling wrap-up: National — Clinton 46, Trump 43 (Bloomberg) … Clinton 45, Trump 41; Enthusiasm for candidate — Clinton 53, Trump 51 (CBS News) … Michigan: Clinton 46, Trump 41, Johnson 7, Stein 2. (Fox2 Detroit/Mitchell) … New Mexico: Clinton 45, Trump 40, Johnson 11, Stein 3. (Albuquerque Journal) … New Hampshire — Maggie Hassan 49, Kelly Ayotte 45 (UNH/WMUR).
10:45 a.m. — In the final weekend of the 2016 campaign, Clinton campaign volunteers knocked on 6.2 million doors, making 8.1 million phone calls to voters. Between the start of early voting in September and Friday, the Clinton campaign canvassed voters 45 million times, either through knocking on doors or by phone.
8:35 a.m. — Ohio Democrats want the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene in their voter intimidation lawsuit in the swing state. The party has filed an emergency request for the nation’s high court to lift a Cincinnati-based federal appeals court order. That ruling Sunday granted the Trump campaign’s request to block a federal judge’s restraining order Democrats said was needed to prevent voter intimidation.
A 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals three-judge panel said Ohio Democrats didn’t show “a likelihood of success” on their case’s merits.
The party told the U.S. Supreme Court the appellate judges ruled without reviewing “critical evidence” a lower court judge relied on in ruling that anyone engaging in intimidation or harassment inside or near polling places would face contempt of court charges.
7:35 a.m. — Trump’s campaign manager says it’s not true that his staff has stopped him from tweeting.
Trump has exhibited unusual restraint on social media in the final days of the campaign. The New York Times reported Sunday that aides “have finally wrested away” his Twitter account.
President Obama seized on the report at a voter rally in Florida, telling the crowd that anyone who can’t be trusted with a Twitter account shouldn’t be trusted with control of the America’s nuclear weapons.
When asked Monday about the Times report by NBC’s “Today Show,” campaign manager Kellyanne Conway said, “No, it’s not true.”
1:35 a.m. — Trump is accusing Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe of acting “illegally” to return voting rights to convicted felons who’ve served their sentences. The GOP nominee tells supporters at a midnight rally in the state the governor is “letting criminals cancel out the votes of law-abiding citizens.”
Virginia’s highest court ruled in July that governors cannot restore felons’ right to vote en masse, but must consider them on a case-by-case basis. That ruling invalidated a sweeping executive order issued by McAuliffe that had given more than 200,000 felons who’d completed their sentences their right to vote back.
12:49 a.m. — Trump is ending a marathon day of campaigning with a final rally well past midnight in Virginia. Trump took the stage in Leesburg, Virginia, and was cheered by supporters who arrived for the event they expected to start at 9:30 p.m. “This is a marathon,” he told supporters. He dubbed the event his “midnight special speech.” Trump joked that the traveling press were exhausted after following him to five rallies in five states. He said even the cameras were sagging. Trump also took note of a woman in the audience that he depicted as “obnoxious.” He shook his head and then said, “You even find them at 12 o’clock in the evening.” The woman was asking the candidate about allegations that he grabs women. “Do you respect women, Donald?” she asked.
9:40 p.m. — A New Hampshire crowd is booing as Mike Pence mentions the FBI’s new announcement that Clinton will not face charges related to a new email investigation. Pence said New Hampshire voters can make sure Clinton will never be president. He said, “it ends here, it ends now. In two days, he said, Americans can “close the history book on the Clintons once and for all.”
9:20 p.m. — Clinton said the country is facing a “moment of reckoning” on Election Day, and Americans must choose between “division and unity.” Clinton is closing out the final hours of her presidential campaign with a more positive message focused on uniting the country, as she appeals to Americans of all political affiliations. The Democratic presidential candidate says she is “hopeful and optimistic” about the future. She said: “We have to heal this country.”
Sunday
7:19 p.m. — In financial trading Sunday evening, Dow Jones index futures jumped about 200 points ahead of Monday’s stock market opening, apparently in response to FBI Director James Comey‘s decision that seemed to lift a cloud over Hillary Clinton.
Comey announced Sunday that a review of new Hillary Clinton emails did not change the FBI’s recommendation that she should not face charges. The futures jump Sunday presaged possible substantial gains. The market wilted Oct. 28 after the FBI notified Congress that it was reviewing new, potentially relevant emails linked to Clinton. The stock market is allergic to that kind of uncertainty coming so close to Election Day.
6:04 p.m. — Republican presidential nominee Mike Pence is suggesting he isn’t satisfied with the FBI’s conclusion on Clinton’s handling of national security documentation while serving as secretary of state. Pence told a raucous crowd in Hickory, North Carolina, that “mishandling classified information is a crime.”
4:55 p.m. — Clinton is campaigning with basketball star LeBron James in Cleveland on Sunday, hoping to motivate African-American voters to the polls. She’s praised the NBA player for his basketball skills and “what he does off the court.”
Clinton said: “What he does off the court is to care for every child as if that child is his own.” James told the crowd that their votes matter. He said, “it really does.”
Clinton’s team is worried about their chances in Ohio, where polls show her in a dead heat with Trump. She hosted a free concert in the state on Friday with rapper Jay-Z and his wife, Beyoncé Carter-Knowles.
Clinton will campaign later on Sunday in Manchester, New Hampshire, with songwriter James Taylor.
4:40 p.m. — House Speaker Paul Ryan said Americans can end the Clinton era by voting for Trump.
Ryan’s tepid support for the Republican presidential nominee has elicited criticism from some fellow Republicans. But the speaker issued a statement Sunday shortly after FBI Director James Comey informed Congress that a review of additional emails provided no grounds for criminal charges against Hillary Clinton.
Ryan said regardless of Comey’s decision, Clinton put the country’s secrets at risk and compromised national security. Ryan’s statement comes a month after the Wisconsin Republican told his House GOP colleagues that he would neither defend Trump nor campaign with him.
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