Staff Reports
2018: Year of the Woman redux?
The 1992 elections were dubbed the “Year of the Woman” as voters elected more new women to Congress than any previous decade. Among the 24 women winning House seats, 15 were Democrats.
Included among the nine Republicans were incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Miami and the late Tillie Fowler of Jacksonville. Not since that year has there been as much discussion about this generation’s Year of the Woman.
Talk of a surge in women voters or candidates usually is not a good thing for Republicans. The GOP is trying to get into the conversation in 2018.
As they try to mitigate midterm election losses or even hold their own, House Republicans have doubled the number of female House candidates this year. In 2018, 103 Republican women, including incumbents, are running for House seats, compared to 48 just two years ago.
“The number of female candidates on the Republican side doubling is not an accident,” said Matt Mackowiak, a GOP strategist. “That is a result of a disciplined effort to recruit strong female candidates, both from the party directly, but also from outside groups that believe female candidates give them a better chance to hold, and perhaps expand, their majority.”
That does not mean they have reached parity with Democrats.
In fact, three times as many Democratic women are on primary or general election ballots in 2018. In the era of the #MeToo movement, 305 Democrats, including incumbents, are seeking election to a House seat.
Of those 305, a total of 19 come from Florida, including incumbents Stephanie Murphy of Winter Park, Val Demings of Orlando, Kathy Castor of Tampa, Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach, Debbie Wasserman Schulz of Weston and Frederica Wilson of Miami Gardens.
Republicans have seven women running for Congress, five of which are in District 27 as the GOP seeks to hold the seat currently held by Ros-Lehtinen. Maria Elvira Salazar is battling front-runner Bruno Barreiro, and other Republicans, for the GOP nomination.
Democrats point to at least four seats which they believe hold pick up opportunities. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is challenging Republican Carlos Curbelo in District 26; Donna Shalala is among the front-runners in District 27; Lauren Baer is raising big money to take on Brian Mast in District 18, and Nancy Soderberg is trying to win the open seat in District 6.
If they would win all four, taking the House is a slam dunk. But their prospects are slightly less bright than they were four months ago.
The generic ballot, once a sizeable double-digit advantage for Democrats, is shrinking as good economic news continues. The Real Clear Politics average of the generic ballot is now down to three points.
Democrats held a slight lead in the 2016 generic ballot on Election Day and picked up six seats. Will they pick up the 23 needed to flip the House and Senate?
Ask the women.
Nelson fears trade war
Friday’s jobs report for May had great news for the economy. Jobs are up, unemployment is down, but Nelson, Democrats, and skeptical economists believe Trump’s tariffs on both friends and foes threaten a now thriving economy.
“Starting a trade war with our closest allies is the last thing we should be doing,” Nelson said Friday in Jacksonville. “No one wins in a trade war, especially hardworking families who may have to pay more for the goods they buy every day,”
Nelson noted that the 25 percent steel tariff and the 10 percent aluminum tariff would affect local businesses, including the community’s Budweiser plant.
“They produce 3.3 billion,” Nelson said, “cans a year. Multiply that by 25 percent tax, add to that, that adds up to real money. If this starts an international trade war, Florida is going to get hurt.”
At the same time, the three-term Democrat is hopeful Trump finds some success in dealing with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un but is keeping expectations low.
“It’s always better to talk to your enemy than to be shooting,” Nelson said, though acknowledging skepticism on North Korea making significant concessions.
“He will get what he wants, to be on an equal playing field with the United States,” Nelson said of Kim Jong Un, “and will bob and weave.
The “canceled” summit is now back on again with Trump and Kim set to meet in Singapore on June 12.
Rubio joins colleagues in brief vs. Planned Parenthood
Rubio and House colleagues have weighed in one of the many controversial legal matters involving Planned Parenthood and abortions. On Thursday, he joined with 23 Republican Senators and 67 House members urging the U.S. Supreme Court to take a case known as Gee v. Planned Parenthood Gulf Coast.
The case involves whether states can withhold Medicaid funds to a provider that provides abortions. The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against the states, prompting the appeal to the Supreme Court and the amicus brief from the 90 lawmakers.
Among the House members joining the brief was Ted Yoho of Gainesville, Gus Bilirakis of Palm Harbor and Daniel Webster of Orlando.
In the amicus brief, the Senators and House members challenge the Fifth Circuit’s ruling based on their interpretation of congressional intent in the Medicaid Act and state sovereignty in granting Medicaid provider status. They argue the Supreme Court should hear the case because circuit courts have offered contradictory opinions in similar cases.
“Amici Members have an interest in seeing courts restrained from speaking where Congress has not spoken,” the brief states. “The (Fifth Circuit) decision contravenes the constitutional authority of Congress to dictate the contours of the Medicaid Act.”
Scott makes sixth trip to Puerto Rico since Maria
Last week Gov. Rick Scott traveled to Puerto Rico as the storm-ravaged commonwealth still tries to get back on its feet after the devastation brought by Hurricane Maria more than 8 months ago. While Scott maintains politics are on the back burner, tying his 6 visits to his campaign to unseat Nelson arise in almost any interview.
“Well, first off, anything that happened with Puerto Rico should not be about politics,” Scott told Fox News’ Martha MacCallum. “I’m going back there (Thursday) for my sixth visit. And I’m going back there to try to help them. I work with the governor.”
Even before Maria, the Orlando region was home to thousands of Floridians who are either Puerto Rican natives, or still have family ties there. Now, many thousands of displaced Puerto Ricans remain in Florida, either in homes of friends and relatives or in hotels.
While Nelson has not made as many visits to the island, he has frequently joined Rubio and Orlando area delegation members working on their behalf. Both Scott and Nelson have been praised by Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello for their efforts on behalf of Puerto Ricans.
For his most recent visit, Scott brought Florida Department of Economic Opportunity director Cissy Proctor and Wes Maul, the head of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, to interact with local authorities.
Dems lament SCOTUS ruling for Colorado baker
One of the most highly-anticipated Supreme Court cases, whether a baker could refuse on religious grounds, to make a wedding cake for a gay couple was decided Monday. In a 7-2 ruling, the high court held that accommodations must be made for an individual’s right to religious freedom and free expression.
The ruling stated that the Colorado Civil Rights Commission had a “hostility” toward the religious beliefs of bakeshop owner Jack Phillips. Justice Anthony Kennedy, who wrote the opinion for the majority, said “the Commission’s hostility with the First Amendment’s guarantee that our laws be applied in a manner that is neutral toward religion.”
While delegation Republicans rather quietly applauded the decision, Democrats voiced strong displeasure despite liberal justices Stephen Breyer and Elena Kagan voting with the majority. They called for a vote on the Equality Act that analysts say would conflict with the court decision.
“No one should be allowed to discriminate based upon their race, sex or marital status and loving couples should not have their dignity questioned in court,” said Castor of Tampa. “As part of the LGBTQ caucus, I am urging Speaker (Paul) Ryan to allow a vote on the Equality Act — which has already been co-sponsored by 190 of my colleagues — so that the law protects all individuals and loving couples from the type of discrimination we saw in this case.”
Frankel of West Palm Beach tweeted “When someone walks into a store, they shouldn’t have to worry they will be denied service b/c of who they love or who they are.”
Other important rulings, including one on gerrymandering, the rights of labor unions, and the Florida v. Georgia water rights case will soon be decided as well.
Gaetz, Dosev in Twitter war
In recent months, Trump and Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Fort Walton Beach have become members of a mutual admiration society. Trump calls Gaetz from time to tie, and the president has no bigger supporter than Gaetz.
Trump is well known for his frequent tweets and occasional Twitter battles. Gaetz is now getting into the act.
The Fort Walton Beach Republican recently got involved in Twitter banter with his primary opponent, whom Gaetz defeated in 2016. GOP challenger Cris Dosev started everything off by criticizing Gaetz for inviting Charles C. Johnson, a reported Holocaust denier, to Trump’s State of the Union address.
“Didn’t you lose by like 16 points the last time you ran against me? President Trump likes winners. That’s why he isn’t supporting you,” replied Gaetz, who won the crowded 2016 primary in this western Panhandle district.
Gaetz’ response came on Memorial Day. Dosev, a former Marine officer who served in Iraq, made note of it, tweeting that while “President Trump was laying a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, @mattgaetz busied himself by hurling insults at a veteran on Twitter.”
Gaetz came back on May 31 a tweet that said “Hey @crisdosev — I’ve noticed your campaign makes fun of me for being a “mommas boy.” Just wanted you to see the amazing woman who will be sitting next to me when I take your election night concession call (for the second time). #ProudMommasBoy”
Your move, Mr. Dosev.
T. Rooney: NRA not ‘reasonable’
Heated criticism of the National Rifle Association (NRA) has become more pronounced since the Valentine’s Day murders at Majority Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland. That criticism has mostly come from Democrats, but now a Florida Republican wishes the NRA would be a bit more practical.
Retiring Rep. Tom Rooney of Okeechobee criticized the NRA for refusing to accept “reasonable” gun control regulations. During his career, Rooney has earned an “A” rating from the NRA.
In an extensive piece in Sarasota Magazine, Rooney laments fighting over raising the minimum age for purchasing an “assault rifle,” which he believes is a reasonable restriction. The NRA believes it is unconstitutional.
“The problem is with the political arm of the NRA,” Rooney said. “I don’t know in the last 10 years whether there has been any compromise with guns by the NRA.”
Rooney announced in February he would not seek another term in Congress. He is one of 44 Republicans not seeking another term, blaming a toxic atmosphere.
“(Republicans are) in control, but we’re fractured,” Rooney said.
Richardson picks up endorsement for CD 27
In the crowded Democratic primary for Congressional District 27, candidates are looking for any advantage. State Rep. David Richardson has recently landed an endorsement from the Florida LGBTA Democratic Caucus.
Richardson is competing against four others for Democratic nomination, including former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary and University of Miami President Donna Shalala. The seat has been held for more than two decades by the retiring Ros-Lehtinen.
“David has been a champion for equality in the Florida House and has distinguished himself working to hold the Florida prison system accountable and protecting the environment,” said caucus President Terry Fleming. “Florida needs a fighter like David Richardson to represent us in Congress.”
Richardson, one of the first openly gay representatives elected to the Florida House, thanked the Florida LGBTA Democratic Caucus in a statement following the endorsement.
“It is an honor to be endorsed by the Florida LGBTA Democratic Caucus,” said Richardson. “I have made it a priority to fight for the rights of the LGBT community — a community that has been long overlooked and discriminated against by policymakers.”
Richardson and Shalala each had more than $1 million cash on hand as of March 31 while Matt Haggman had $870,000. The primary is August 28.
Delegation weighing Brightline future
A speedy passenger train that could link Orlando and South Florida may sound appealing, but some among the delegation are not happy with the current effort, while a bipartisan faction supports it. All Aboard Florida and Brightline, a privately-owned effort, recently received a 7-month reprieve to sell $1.15 billion in private equity bonds to keep the project moving.
Opponents, led by Citizens Against Rail Expansion in Florida, have been fighting the issue over concerns for safety for the communities it passes through, as well as local communities being on the hook for long-term costs. There also is a political effort seeking to stop it, led by Mast.
Mast and other Florida Republicans that include Bill Posey of Rockledge, DeSantis, and Gaetz have joined with Republican Rep. Mark Meadows of North Carolina to ask the U.S. Department of Transportation to suspend approval for public activity bonds. Meadows chairs the powerful House Government Operations Subcommittee.
On the other hand, a bipartisan group has come out to support Brightline Those include Republicans Curbelo, Ros-Lehtinen, John Rutherford of Jacksonville, and Dennis Ross of Lakeland.
Democratic supporters include Darren Soto of Orlando, Wilson and Frankel. who have joined together to urge the project to keep moving forward.
The opponents’ safety issue was brought home again last Friday with yet another death when a man walking along the tracks was struck and killed by a Brightline train in Boynton Beach. He was the 6th person killed by the trains in the past year, and they didn’t start running in earnest until January.
On this day in the headlines
June 5, 1968 — Just minutes after declaring victory in the California primary, presidential candidate and Democratic Sen. Robert Kennedy of New York was shot at the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles. “Sen. Kennedy’s condition is still described as extremely critical as to life,” said his press secretary, Frank Mankiewicz.
Among the delegation, Democratic Rep. Claude Pepper said “We must root out violence as a way of handling any of our problems,” while Republican Rep. Edward Gurney said “This terrible deed puts in sharp focus the sickness in our society — a never-ending and ever-increasing lawlessness.”
June 5, 1998 — The Supreme Court, spurning a request from independent counsel Kenneth Starr, refused to speed up action on two legal disputes that have delayed his investigation of an alleged White House cover-up. The ruling makes it unlikely the matter will be resolved before the November elections.
Earlier this week, Starr hinted for the first time that he is considering making an impeachment referral to Congress, which would then be forced to consider whether to exercise its authority to remove President Bill Clinton. Many Republicans in Congress have been queasy about receiving a report from Starr before the midterm election.
Fallon offers light moment at Douglas High commencement
On Sunday, Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School held commencement ceremonies for the 2018 graduating class. Four students, Nicholas Dworet, Joaquin Oliver, Meadow Pollack and Carmen Schentrup, victims of the Valentine’s Day murders, had their diplomas accepted by family members.
Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch, whose constituents include the graduating students saluted them.
“I want to congratulate every senior who graduated from Marjory Stoneman Douglas today,” he said. “You have endured a tragedy, yet you’ve shown so much resiliency and courage. I am certain that the future is bright and the possibilities are limitless.”
Students and attendees were surprised by the appearance of comedian Jimmy Fallon as the commencement speaker. He spent several minutes offering encouraging words and his admiration for what they have done since the tragedy but gave them a light moment to remember.
“And if I could give you one last piece of advice, it’d be this,” Fallon said. “Don’t ever get off your parents’ wireless plan. Ride that train as long as possible. It’s expensive.”
