A.G. Gancarski
An internal memo obtained by Florida Politics Thursday reveals that the Matt Caldwell campaign feels it’s on the inside track to victory.
“With less than 1 month until Primary Election Day and voting underway, all signs show that Matt is the only Republican candidate in this race that can win both the primary and the general elections,” asserts campaign manager Brian Swensen.
The campaign touts an internal poll that shows Caldwell ahead, but Swensen is more encouraged by a drill down into the data, which shows that endorsements from Sen. Marco Rubio and the National Rifle Association make voters 44 percent and 53 percent more likely to vote for Caldwell.
“Just this past week,” Swensen asserts, “the NRA sent their statewide mailer and email promoting their endorsement of Caldwell. Having previously led in Cash on Hand between his campaign and committee, Matt will have the resources necessary to communicate his conservative message to voters.”
“The campaign’s own GOTV efforts – promoting Matt’s conservative record, as well as the endorsements of Senator Rubio, the NRA, and the growing list of conservative leaders and organizations – will continue to move undecided voters into Matt’s corner,” Swensen predicted.
In addition to endorsements, earned media — garnered last week after Facebook blocked a gun-thusiastic ad Caldwell had attempted to place — is in the candidate’s favor as well, Swensen asserted.
Caldwell had accused Facebook of censorship after the spot was pulled, but the company reversed course quickly.
Swensen believes that grassroots, including Caldwell’s 80,000 miles driven across the state, will help him close the deal with the 50 percent + of voters who have yet to pick a candidate.
The Caldwell campaign has prioritized straw polls: Swensen notes that Caldwell is winning a majority of them, even defeating Democrats when they are thrown into the mix.
Two of Caldwell’s opponents — Rep. Baxter Troutman of Winter Haven and state Sen. Denise Grimsley of Zolfo Springs — are on television this week, with Troutman targeting Caldwell’s House district in his buy.
More buys are imminent, to be sure. Grimsley and Caldwell have each raised more than $2 million, and have over a million each on hand. Troutman has spent $3 million of his own money on the race.
Bill Rufty and Drew Wilson contributed to this post.
