Scott Powers
A new poll from Quinnipiac University is finding Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson moving seven percentage points ahead in his re-election contest with Republican Gov. Rick Scott, a lead being built on the shoulders of independent voters, women, and loyal Democrats.
Quinnipiac found Nelson ahead 53 percent to 46 percent, one of the few polls with either candidate leading outside a margin of error. Since January, 13 of the 16 previous major Florida U.S. Senate polls tracked by RealClearPolitics.com had found the candidates within four points of each other, and two of the past four found them exactly tied. And other polls have agreed.
The latest Quinnipiac University Poll, conducted between last Thursday and Monday of 888 likely Florida voters, shows Nelson moving well ahead, compared with the previous Quinnipiac poll in the race, released just three weeks ago, which had the two in a dead heat, 49 to 49.
Like that earlier poll, there were very few voters not picking a preference in the new survey, down to just 1 percent this time.
Also like that poll and many others, Nelson did much better than Scott among independent voters.
And this time there appears a growing gender gap, with women increasingly leaning toward Nelson, while men are generally split, with a slight majority going Scott’s way.
“Sen. Nelson is ahead 53 to 46 percent by doing a tad better than Gov. Scott with their respective bases and holding a 16-point lead among the key independent voting bloc,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, stated in a news release from the polling institute. “Nelson also leads among women and is breaking even among men – the traditional path to a Democratic victory.”
Scott has the Republican vote wrapped up by a margin of 89 percent for him and 10 percent for Nelson. For Democrats’ votes, Nelson is doing a little better, getting 94 percent compared with 5 percent for Scott.
But among independent voters, 56 percent said they want Nelson, while 40 percent said they preferred Scott.
Women went Nelson’s way by a spread of 58 percent to 41 percent, while men leaned Scott’s way by a spread of 51 percent to 47 percent. In the previous Quinnipiac survey, women supported Nelson by a narrower margin, of 53 to 45.
Bottom line: Nelson has opened a seven-point lead, with the poll reporting a margin of error of four points. Quinnipiac conducts its polls through random digit dialing, with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Seven points is the largest lead either candidate has had in any of the more than 20 polls listed by RealClearPolitics in the past year. However, both Scott and Nelson previously had led by as many as six points in one poll each, and neither was able to sustain that advantage for very long.
This poll comes as early voting already has begun in Florida, and with just six weeks remaining before Election Day.
“A Nelson win would be a big boost for Democratic hopes of wresting control of the U.S. Senate from the GOP,” Brown observed.
Among issues driving the voters’ choices in the Senate race, health care was the important issue to their vote for U.S. Senator, named by 26 percent of those surveyed. Among other to factors, 19 percent of voters cited the economy as their top issue, followed by 18 percent for immigration, 15 percent for the Supreme Court and 12 percent who listed gun policy.
Also, 56 percent of those surveyed said they would like Congress to be “more of a check on President [Donald] Trump,” while 30 percent think, “Congress is doing enough to be a check on President Trump.”
Wide gender and racial gaps also appeared among Florida likely voters when asked whether the U.S. Senate should confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Overall, 47 percent said yes and 48 percent said no. But women said no by a spread of 54 percent to 41 percent, while men said yes by a spread of 55 percent to 40 percent.
From September 20 – 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 888 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.
3 comments
MicheleRyan
September 25, 2018 at 6:54 pm
Vote this election for candidates who prioritize citizens over illegal aliens (bet you thought that was a given …not anymore), those who oppose sanctuary cities, amnesty and taxpayer funded in state college tuition discounts for illegals. That means NO for Nelson & Gillum.
Gallup poll- almost 60% of Democrats now view socialism positively, little changed from 2010 survey. (Gallup-Democrats More Positive About Socialism Than Capitalism)
https://news.gallup.com/poll/240725/democrats-positive-socialism-capitalism.aspx
Many Democrats support the following immigration issues-
Sanctuary cities-
Eventually, as cities across the country begin announcing they will NOT be sanctuary the criminals, gang members, Illegal aliens living there will flock to the nearest welcoming sanctuary city. Than city will get an increase in crime and expenses. Democrats fight to the death defending sanctuary cites and at the same time demand to abolish of ICE.
The current migration at our southern border is costing taxpayers a Kings Ransom. Fleeing persecution? or fleeing for freebies? they sure don’t stay in Mexico when they reach “safety” or ask for political asylum in Mexico. Why? because Mexico will give them NOTHING. So they make the long journey to our border, our generous Democrats and our tax dollars.
When you reward illegal immigration with jobs, amnesty, drivers licenses, discounts for college tuition, scholarships encourages MORE illegal entry.. Just debating DACA in congress is costing taxpayers hundreds of thousands of dollars….. thank the parents.
Just a few examples of the more outrageous costs associated with illegal immigration, we will pass this burden on to our children and grand children as has been passed on to us.
*Numerous Democrat city & state governments are using tax payer funds to litigate on behalf of illegal aliens, CA,NY, Phila, Portland, Seattle, Denver just a small sample..
*The cost of educating illegal aliens children is staggering. From K-12 it costs taxpayers $122,000 for EACH illegal alien student. This does not include the billions spent on bilingual education for illegal aliens.
*Taxpayers in numerous states are funding in state college tuition discounts for illegal aliens. Cost to taxpayers over a billion dollars annually.
*2016 illegal aliens sent home $62 BILLION in remittances back to their countries of origin. This is why Mexico is getting involved in our politics.
*30% percent of all Federal Prison inmates are illegal aliens.Does not include local jails and State Prisons. At $21,000 per year expense per inmate in Federal Prison U do the math.
*$3Million Dollars a DAY is spent to incarcerate, process Illegal aliens in the Criminal justice system. I repeat 3 MILLION a DAY.
*$2.2Billion dollars a year is spent on is spent on food assistance programs such as SNAP (food stamps) WIC, & free school lunches.
https://www.fairus.org/issue/publications-resources/fiscal-burden-illegal-immigration-united-states-taxpayers
If you OPPOSE illegal immigration, taxpayer funds used for illegal aliens, sanctuary cities, amnesty for millions of illegal aliens, weak border security, tax increases. VOTE NO for ALL Democrats this November.
Ann
September 25, 2018 at 11:27 pm
Hmmm…interesting timing. Sure it has nothing to do with Andrew Gillum getting people excited to vote for Democrats?
John G Chase
September 26, 2018 at 12:40 pm
Many distortions in this fear-filled rant.
Finally, thinking voters are looking past the old, tired labels of”Socialism”, “illegal alien”, “liberal”, “conservative” to see, in concrete terms, what is being proposed by these candidates.
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