NY Times poll shows Andrew Gillum lead, narrow path for Ron DeSantis

Gillum DeSantis

A NYTimes/Siena poll released Sunday had good news for Democrat Andrew Gillum and bad news for Republican Ron DeSantis.

Gillum had a five point lead (48-43 percent), and he led in every turnout scenario except for one: an electorate that looked like 2014.

In that instance, DeSantis was up by one point. Otherwise, if voter pools reflected a 2016 electorate, historically likely voters, people who claim to be certain to vote, and every registered voter, Gillum was up (and by nine points with historically reliable voters).

Likewise, no matter how results were weighted, including education and census data, the Democrat led.

Gillum’s lead is especially remarkable given that President Donald Trump is above water by a point, 47 percent favorable to 46 percent unfavorable, in this survey.

Gillum holds a nine point lead with women here, and has massive leads with voters under 45 as well as members of ethnic minorities. DeSantis’s strongholds: a 55 to 38 percent lead with white voters, 25 point lead with whites who didn’t graduate college, and a seven point firewall with voters aged 45 to 54.

Both candidates are at 91 percent with voters from their own parties, but Gillum shows a 48 to 36 percent lead with Independents.

The NYTimes/Siena poll dropped on the same day as a new CBS News/YouGov poll  showing a much tighter race. Gillum still led in that measure with 47 percent support closely followed by DeSantis at 46 percent, with another 2 percent supporting someone else and 5 percent still unsure.

The current polling average compiled by RealClearPolitics splits the difference between the two Sunday polls, showing Gillum up 3.2 percentage points.

With only a handful of days until it’s pencils down on the 2018 cycle, elections forecaster FiveThirtyEight says Gillum has 7-in-9 odds of breaking the GOP’s 20-year monopoly on the Governor’s mansion.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


  • Red MAGA hat

    October 28, 2018 at 5:45 pm

    A pole by the falling NYTIMES! There paper is literally for the birds!

    • James F-Ball

      October 28, 2018 at 7:31 pm

      Said the dumb ass reading the New York Times. =)

      • Dee Moon

        October 29, 2018 at 1:04 am

        tweet tweet…my ass votes and loves the times so eat your MAGA hat! GO Guillum!!

        • Don

          October 30, 2018 at 9:10 am

          Why would you ruin our State by voting for a man that’s wants to have a State Tax like NY & NJ? Do you want an additional 7-10% of your income or retirement being taken from you?
          You think expanding Medicaid is great? LoL … enjoy waiting in an ER for 6 hours to be seen and only seeing a practitioner because the doctors make nothing to see you.
          The man had a 43% increase in crime Tallahassee as mayor.
          Florida Law Enforcement doesn’t support him because he doesn’t support them. He even dies with a group wanting abolish law enforcement & ICE.
          Everyone flees their tax riddled & liberal ran States to Florida only to vote for the same ideology they ran from.

          • Buster Sanity

            October 30, 2018 at 6:30 pm

            Lol. Why do all the people who support Republicans these days just list a completely untruthful “greatest hits” of scare tactics? No one is advocating for an “open border”, including Gillum. DeSantis is a racist who has attached his coattails to the hateful and divisive far right conspiracy theories. Sanity will prevail

      • me

        October 29, 2018 at 3:39 am


      • Reezy

        October 29, 2018 at 3:05 pm

        lma000 good one

    • Jeremy Lopez

      October 29, 2018 at 5:38 am

      So Trump lying to us everyday is ok? Trump is like the human equivalent of the NYT and FOX NEWS nothing but trash

    • Al

      October 29, 2018 at 2:41 pm

      So is your spelling.

    • Rudy

      October 29, 2018 at 3:59 pm

      It’s “poll” – note “pole” and it’s “they’re” – not “there” you moron shove a pole there

    • Doug

      October 29, 2018 at 9:34 pm

      Go climb your pole and jump off it

  • Gail

    October 28, 2018 at 8:07 pm

    I’ve already voted for Gillum. We don’t need a local carbon copy of the chaos Trump is sowing in Washington and Desantis has failed to impress me.

    And I think a lot of people are concerned about healthcare, and the fact that the GOP has engaged in a remarkable program of doublespeak regarding it; the party spent all of 2017 promising to do away with Obamacare, without any regard to preexisting conditions. And now we’re supposed to believe they had a change of heart–so close to election time, no less? BULL.

    Did I mention I have been a Republican since 1992?

    • Anita Barney

      October 29, 2018 at 12:58 am

      Yea, sure you have!

    • Michael

      October 29, 2018 at 10:27 am

      I don’t understand how anyone could vote Republican in this election. They have shown us who they really are. The party of hate and fear and lies. But you have many people still following them. How dumb can you be? My vote is for Guillium and Bill.

      • Dee

        October 29, 2018 at 5:48 pm

        Ilaughed so hairdressing this b.s.
        They also held the belief TRUMP HAD NO PATH TO 270!!!! They missed that one by a huge margin!!

        The residents of FL still love Trump!!! A vote for Gillum is unthinkable!

    • Dee

      October 29, 2018 at 7:37 pm

      I hate to be the person that snuffs out your hope that Gillum will be the savior of FL, but only God will fill those shoes. The promises of MEDICARE for all in FL is a mirage!! Gillum can’t touch MEDICARE because it is a FEDERAL PROGRAM ran under DHHS. Gillum can try to expand the Medicaid coverage in the state but that seems to fail in every state. The democrats have been working on health care reform since I registered to vote when I turned 18. I registered to vote as a democrat. I watched the the unveiling of Obama Care as a Democrat and as a RN and it was a disaster for patients and it still remains that way.

      The democrats are not going to be able solve this nightmare alone. They need to work with Republicans and Independents to get true health care reform. There will never be any true reform until that point.

      Last week Trump was actually able to pass a bill to reduce perscription drug cost, but it got no media coverage due to the pipe bomber.

    • Don

      October 30, 2018 at 9:15 am

      So in other words, you’re fool by speeches? I’ve heard that before.
      So you voted for a guy that wants a State Tax as high as NY, great job.
      You voted for a guy that wants to increase business taxes by 40%, great job. That will run businesses out of Florida and make it less appealing for others to come here. Not to mention, we will be paying for that 40% increase on top of his desired State Income Tax.
      Brilliant Vote

  • Vanessa

    October 28, 2018 at 10:01 pm

    Good for you Gail. That’s exactly how I would vote . With my heart, no matter what my party affiliation is

  • Rich Rozefort

    October 28, 2018 at 11:23 pm

    Desantis has not offered much in the way of a vision/plan for a better Florida. In my opinion, his record on healthcare while a member of congress makes him a danger and a liability to Floridians. Playing politics with healthcare and stripping coverage away from people with pre-existing conditions is disqualifying. My vote is for Gillum.

    • Don

      October 30, 2018 at 9:22 am

      More lies … Democrats are experts at scare tactics that never happen. Republicans are not removing pre-existing conditions. They’ve said it time & time again.
      Democrats want to keep people enslaved to government. Keep the people dependent and the people are obedient and needy.
      Democrats love welfare because there’s no exit strategy and it’s keep people dependent.
      Enjoy your wonderful socialized health care while waiting in the ER for 6 hours and only seeing a practitioner.
      Enjoy that additional 10% being removed from your income or retirement.
      Watch businesses flee the State of Florida to escape Gillum’s propsed 40% increase on business taxes.
      Liberals will ruin this State as well.

  • William Dail

    October 29, 2018 at 11:35 am

    Hello NY Times, thanks for trying to cover the Florida Governor’s race, but we happen to have 6 candidates on our ballot for Governor. You happen to be missing 4 of them.

  • Don

    October 30, 2018 at 9:39 am

    Gillum – Proposals and what you voted for:

    40% increase on business taxes – You will pay for this increase as a consumer. Businesses will not come to Florida. They will move to low tax rate states.

    A Florida State Income mimicking NY & NJ. Around 10% State Income Tax. How will that feel losing 10% of your retirement and/or income? People flee their tax riddled states to come here and stretch their retirement, not anymore.

    Expansion of Medicaid. Rarely will you see a doctor, you’ll see a practitioner or intern because it doesn’t pay the doctor well enough. You will wait 4-6 hours in emergency rooms (seen it first hand).
    The Republicans are not getting rid of pre-existing conditions as the Democrats like to lie about, but with government health care you better be young if you need a transplant.
    They will make you use generic and lesser effective medications before allowing you to use brand names or stronger medicines (seen it first hand). So enjoy that.

    43% increase in crime as mayor of Tallahassee and supports a group that wants to dissolve law enforcement and abolish ICE. So lawlessness seems to be a Democrat thing these days.

    It’s interesting that people will cast morals and character aside for ideology. The guy takes free gifts and bribes from an undercover FBI agent and people still vote for him.
    Proving that corruption in politics is acceptable as long as you are playing Santa Claus with other people’s money and fooling voters.
    What amazes me is all these people that move to Florida, fleeing their tax riddled states in the North East, only to vote for the same tax greedy ideology that ran from to begin with. It’s the definition of insanity.

  • Ronbo

    November 6, 2018 at 1:28 pm

    Nice Try…you have the same Fake Fox News talking points or too much Fake Limbaugh, Fake Hannity or Fake Glenn Beck. The wealthiest 2% of our Wonderful Country is trying to keep & transfer their Wealth without paying their fair share while the rest of America works 2 jobs and pays more in taxes. The biggest threat to our Democracy is the troubling Lies & Alternative Reality that are being peddled by the far right members of the Republican Party.

    We need to Vote and say “No Way” to Trump’s vision for America.

    Our Heart & Souls are on the line….Who are we America? Vote! Vote like you never have before!!!!

  • Don

    November 6, 2018 at 1:44 pm

    Unfortunately, DeSantis is just another NRA Owned Politician who will destroy our ability to enjoy any public events without fear, our children will Not be any Safer in school and our Religious Rights to gather safely will be impeded….We need Common Sense background checks on gun sales NOW!

    DeSantis will only carry out the Pro-Trump Gun Agenda in our Beautiful State…

    Vote for the Democrat candidates so that we can once and for all restore some Safety in our Community!

Comments are closed.


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