Poll: Bill Nelson clings to 1-point lead on Rick Scott
Bill Nelson, Rick Scott: one of the more interesting races in 2018.

scott nelson

A new University of North Florida poll finds Florida’s race for U.S. Senate basically tied, with 47 percent of likely voters backing Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson and 46 percent supporting Republican challenger Rick Scott.

Pollsters report a 3-point margin of error.

The race finds another 7 percent undecided, leaving both candidates clamoring for the small group of votes still up for grabs.

“The Senate race with Nelson and Scott is neck and neck, and the few remaining undecided voters are going to play a pivotal role in the outcome,” said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at UNF.

UNF surveyed 1,051 likely voters whose responses were included in the final results. The poll spanned Oct. 23-26.

If anything, the poll finds more partisan loyalty for Scott, Florida’s term-limited governor. Among Republicans, 86 percent plan to vote for Scott and 10 percent go to Nelson, with another 5 percent unsure.

As far as Democrats, just 81 percent say they support Nelson, with 9 percent in Scott’s camp while 7 percent still do not know.

But for the pool of likely voters with no party affiliation, Nelson holds a solid lead, with 53 percent breaking for the incumbent and just 36 percent favoring Scott. Another 10 percent remain undecided, but even if they all went toward the GOP candidate, Nelson would hold a strong lead.

The results line up with a number of polls published in advance of Election Day on Nov. 6. Most find the Senate race, one of the most closely watched in the nation, to be a statistical tie.

A CBS News/YouGov poll released on Sunday, for example, shows the candidates neck and neck, each winning 46 percent support among likely voters.

The RealClearPolitics polling average, which includes the CBS poll and a New York Times poll that found Nelson up 48-44, shows a Nelson average lead of 2.4 percent.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


One comment

  • MicheleRyan

    October 30, 2018 at 12:14 pm

    Vote this election for candidates who prioritize citizens over illegal aliens (bet you thought that was a given …not anymore.) Those candidates who oppose sanctuary cities, open borders, non citizens voting, amnesty for millions of illegal aliens and taxpayer funded in state college tuition discounts. That means NO Democrats.

    BILL NELSON and Socialist ANDREW GILLUM are running for Senate & Governor respectively. Nelson / Gillum both proudly supports abolishing ICE, sanctuary cities, amnesty for millions of illegal aliens, using taxpayer funds for illegal aliens & DACA. In addition, both are weak on border security and national defense.

    If you OPPOSE illegal immigration, taxpayer funds used for illegal aliens, sanctuary cities, amnesty r Please VOTE NO for BILL NELSON & ANDREW GILLUM this November….we can’t afford anymore Democrats. Both supported by both La Raza & MALDEF which says it all.

    Recent Gallup poll- almost 60% of Democrats now view socialism positively, little changed from 2010 survey.

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/240725/democrats-positive-socialism-capitalism.aspx?fbclid=IwAR19XWD07pKBWssAOgy5cT6BCPkNy9yH1yY1x_euLndk0hV8Twkme6jXvoo

    To Democrats programs like (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, DACA) and (Temporary Protective Status, TPS.) are permanent programs. There is nothing temporary about these programs to the left. The goal for Democrats is to flood/lure the country with illegal aliens & refugees, then fight against / eliminate deportations. Democrats want to encourage, reward, protect illegal aliens with jobs, amnesty, drivers licenses, discounts for college tuition, scholarships, then after they’re here….protect them from deportation. This creates MORE illegal entry and the Democrats know this.

    The current migration at our southern border is costing taxpayers a Kings Ransom. Fleeing persecution? or fleeing for freebies? they sure don’t stay in Mexico when they reach “safety” or ask for political asylum in Mexico. Why? because Mexico will give them NOTHING. So they make the long journey to our border, our generous Democrats and our tax dollars. Just debating DACA in congress is costing taxpayers hundreds of thousands of dollars….. thank the parents.

    Just a few examples of the more outrageous costs associated with illegal immigration, we will pass this burden on to our children and grand children as has been passed on to us.

    *The cost of educating illegal aliens children is staggering. From K-12 it costs taxpayers $122,000 for EACH illegal alien student. This does not include the billions spent on bilingual education for illegal aliens.

    *Taxpayers in numerous states are funding in state college tuition discounts for illegal aliens. Cost to taxpayers over a billion dollars annually.

    *30% percent of all Federal Prison inmates are illegal aliens.Does not include local jails and State Prisons. At $21,000 per year expense per inmate in Federal Prison U do the math.

    *$3Million Dollars a DAY is spent to incarcerate, process Illegal aliens in the Criminal justice system. I repeat 3 MILLION a DAY.

    *$2.2Billion dollars a year is spent on is spent on food assistance programs such as SNAP (food stamps) WIC, & free school lunches.

    https://www.fairus.org/issue/publications-resources/fiscal-burden-illegal-immigration-united-states-taxpayers?fbclid=IwAR2wnqb0LGLtrXyCoZkUJNKNRHigra-GHppYdvN_vQCe0vIcmmd4JmSlt-Q

    If you OPPOSE illegal immigration, taxpayer funds used for illegal aliens, sanctuary cities, non citizens voting, open borders, amnesty for millions of illegal aliens, weak border security, tax increases. VOTE NO for ALL Democrats this November.

Comments are closed.


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