Peter Schorsch
Donald Trump brought us to this.
The brutal grind to Tuesday’s general election was more of the same as in the lead-up to the primary election, with Trump still casting a long shadow.
With early voting turnout setting records, what kind of a referendum on Trumpism will 2018 be in Florida?
All signs, at least as of this moment, point to Andrew Gillum being elected the first black Governor of the Sunshine State.
Moreover, the Florida Cabinet could be split evenly between Democrats and Republicans if Gillum triumphs and Nikki Fried fulfills the promise of the polls to become the next Commissioner of Agriculture. That means Gillum would have at least one other ally on that panel.
But we get ahead of ourselves. Before showtime at 7 a.m. Eastern time, let’s revisit the key moments that defined this year’s race for the Governor’s Mansion:
June 13, 2016: Rubio decides to re-enter U.S. Senate race
After a bruising fight for the GOP nomination for president, Rubio said he wouldn’t go back to trying to get re-elected to his Senate seat. But of course, his senses kicked in, and he did, announcing that decision on June 22. That essentially squeezed out DeSantis, the congressman who very well could win the GOP gubernatorial contest. Rubio went on to crush Scott ally Carlos Beruff in the GOP primary and edge out Democrat Patrick Murphy in the general election. “Gee,” we know some of you thought at the time. “Wonder what DeSantis’ political future holds now?”
Jan. 20, 2017: Donald Trump is inaugurated
The president goes on to become the biggest force in this state’s GOP primary, bar none. His kingmaking ability, which had faltered in Alabama’s U.S. Senate race, works in shovelsful here, as we’ll see.
May 7, 2017: George Soros gets behind Andrew Gillum
Readers of the conservative journal Human Events once voted billionaire financier Soros “the single most destructive leftist demagogue in the country.” Soros, who fled Nazi Germany–occupied Hungary as a youth, also has been described by the Tampa Bay Times as a “liberal mega-donor and bogeyman to conservatives.” He gave $250,000 to Forward Florida, the Gillum-associated political committee, in April. He later went on to pump hundreds of thousands more to Gillum’s electoral benefit.
June 22, 2017: The FBI’s subpoena in a Tallahassee corruption investigation drops
Gillum, the city’s Mayor, never really recovers. “Federal authorities have demanded the city of Tallahassee produce volumes of records related to top local developers behind some of the biggest projects subsidized by the Community Redevelopment Agency,” the Tallahassee Democrat reports at the time. “Among those named in the subpoenas are Adam Corey, developer of the city-backed Edison restaurant in Cascades Park and a former campaign treasurer for Gillum.” It’s bad … but Gillum later says the FBI told him he’s not a target. Still, the association with Corey lingers, and other revelations continue, including a Costa Rica trip.
Dec. 22, 2017: The first Trump tweet for DeSantis
“Congressman Ron DeSantis is a brilliant young leader, Yale and then Harvard Law, who would make a GREAT Governor of Florida. He loves our Country and is a true FIGHTER!” … Not quite a full endorsement, but that was simply yet to come.
Feb. 14, 2018: Richard Corcoran, Gillum debate on immigration
The House Speaker, a Land O’ Lakes Republican, and Gillum squared off over the “tired, (the) poor, (the) huddled masses yearning to breathe free …” The debate “was sparked by Corcoran’s anti-sanctuary cities ad and House Bill 9, which is legislation Corcoran is pushing to eliminate sanctuary cities in Florida,” WTXL explained. The event was moderated by Troy Kinsey of BayNews 9 and Gary Fineout of the Associated Press.
June 22, 2018: Trump’s full-throated endorsement of DeSantis.
Tweet: “Congressman Ron DeSantis, a top student at Yale and Harvard Law School, is running for Governor of the Great State of Florida. Ron is strong on Borders, tough on Crime & big on Cutting Taxes — Loves our Military & our Vets. He will be a Great Governor & has my full Endorsement!” … Whoomp, there it is.
June 28, 2018: The Fox News debate
As the network described it, Putnam and DeSantis “sparred … over their support for President Trump … DeSantis championed his relationship with the president, and Putnam argued he’s more focused on local issues than his opponent … Putnam said in his opening remarks, ‘It’s different than a Washington, D.C., studio. Welcome to Florida, congressman.’ DeSantis played up Trump’s endorsement … ‘I am proud to have the endorsement of President Trump in this race.’ ”
June 29, 2018: Gillum gets ‘NextGen’ support
Gillum gets to boast of the support of a second billionaire after Soros with Tom Steyer‘s NextGen America announcing its “investment” of $1 million into his bid for governor. Mo’ money, indeed.
July 31, 2018: Trump campaigns for DeSantis
The Times tops itself with this lede: “Declaring himself the most popular Republican in the history of America, President Donald Trump revved up thousands of fans Tuesday night at a rowdy Tampa Bay campaign rally to help gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis and, above all, celebrate Donald Trump … ‘(W)e need to elect Ron DeSantis … He’s going to be an incredible governor. I have no doubt, no doubt. I don’t do these endorsements easily.’”
Aug. 29, 2018: ‘Monkey this up’
Appearing on Fox News just a day after the Aug. 28 primary, DeSantis declares: “The last thing we need to do is to monkey this up by trying to embrace a socialist agenda with huge tax increases, and bankrupting the state.” Democrats swiftly charged the phrase as a racist dog whistle and Fox later that day condemned the use of language. The DeSantis campaign stood by the phrase as a non-racist attack on Gillum’s progressive policies. The ‘monkey this up’ remark would set the stage for a series of racially charged narratives that would in part define the remaining months of the race.
Sept. 6, 2018: DeSantis picks running mate
After a week of relative seclusion from media, DeSantis breaks silence by announcing his Lieutenant Governor pick: Rep. Jeanette Nuñez, the first female Cuban American LG nominee in the state’s history. While she was seen as a strong option to appeal to female and Hispanic voters, opposition workers — known for their long memories — quickly unearthed her prior criticism of Trump, including a tweet calling Trump “the biggest con-man there is” and charging that he supported the Ku Klux Klan.
Sept. 6, 2018: Gillum embraces base with LG pick
Gillum selects former opponent Chris King, arguably just as progressive as he but not nearly as popular. King, an Orlando businessman, failed to poll above single digits in the primary. But bringing King to join the ticket meant double the progressive trouble. And it served as an early indication that Gillum would not be moving to the center in the coming weeks. (If that were the case, then maybe Gwen Graham — the female moderate who finished points behind Gillum — would’ve gotten a call.)
Sept. 14, 2018: DeSantis picks up anti-racist points
Former state Rep. Ralph Arza — who had resigned after using racial slurs and threatening a colleague — was tentatively scheduled to co-chair a DeSantis fundraiser. Then he wasn’t. Per POLITICO Florida: “DeSantis’ decision to block former state Rep. Ralph Arza from the post underscored the sensitivity the Republican’s campaign…”
Sept. 18, 2018: Trump smells disobedience
DeSantis’ disagreement with the President’s claim that Hurricane Maria’s death toll was inflated for political purposes didn’t sit well with the big man, who found the distancing “profoundly disloyal,” according to POLITICO. It opened up the possibility that the President would no longer exercise effort to boost DeSantis in the Sunshine State. But ultimately, this wouldn’t keep Trump out of Florida.
Sept. 18, 2018: Gillum shakes off and staffs up
Gillum names Brandon Davis campaign manager, and cuts ties with some of his primary consultants, including ad firm Putnam Partners and polling group Global Strategy Partners. Pollster John Anzalone, who formerly worked with Gwen Graham, takes over surveying for the Gillum camp. CateComm, headed by Gillum consultant Kevin Cate, picks up the TV slack.
Sept. 20, 2018: DeSantis loses anti-racist points
POLITICO Florida reports that a DeSantis donor who padded his candidacy with $20,000 recently called former President Barack Obama a “F—— MUSLIM N—–” on Twitter. DeSantis cuts ties with the donor, Steven M. Alembik, but ultimately does not return the prior donations. Gillum would later use this incident to attack DeSantis during a debate, even spelling out the racial slur on live television.
Sept. 24, 2018: Tallahassee mayoral candidate walks into a trap
Dustin Daniels, who formerly served as Mayor Gillum’s chief of staff, criticizes the city’s crime rate in a mailer for his progressive mayoral bid. Gillum, meanwhile, had been trying to defend his tenure against DeSantis’ criticism. It doesn’t look good when your own political friend plays into your opponent’s narrative.
Sept. 25, 2018: Steyer follows up
How about another $5.2 million and a New York Times headline? Steyer’s NextGen PAC leaks to NYT its plans to provide ground support to Gillum in Florida.
Sept. 26, 2018: So, what about that whole ‘FBI thing’?
POLITICO Florida reports that driving records related to Gillum are tied to an “active criminal investigation” and can’t be released unredacted by the state. “Government agencies frequently cite this statute when any information is redacted,” Barry Richard, an attorney for Gillum charges. Here we go.
Sept. 26, 2018: Survey says ‘Gillum!’
The reputable polling outfit at Quinnipiac Univesity pegs Gillum up nine points in the race. At the time, DeSantis is outspending Gillum on television, but his favorability among Floridians is sour at best. “At this point, Gillum’s biggest asset is just that voters like him better,” says pollster Peter A. Brown.
Time for a change.
Sept. 27, 2018: Susie Wiles takes the lead at Team DeSantis
DeSantis welcomes Wiles, who took over Florida operations for Trump in 2016. The former congressman’s situation mirrors that of Trump when Wiles came aboard: a strong candidate with an operation moving from the base appeal of the primary to finding a way to bring in the swing voters.
Oct. 2, 2018: Polls come back down to earth
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy pegs the race in dead heat, with Gillum up just a point in a survey with a 3.5 percent margin of error. Brad Coker, the pollster, points to the highly publicized battle over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh‘s confirmation. “Monday through Thursday, there were lots of Kavanaugh fireworks,” Coker told POLITICO. “If you take the other polls, it could suggest Republicans might be more fired up than Democrats.”
Oct. 10, 2018: Hurricane disrupts everything…
The powerful Category 4 storm swept through the Big Bend and Panhandle regions of North Florida. Tallahassee, while largely spared by the worst of the storm, is hurt. Gillum suspends his campaign to attend to his city. At the state level, concerns over voters in the hardest hit areas prompt Gov. Rick Scott and Secretary of State Ken Detzner to extend the early voting deadline in eight counties.
Oct. 12, 2018: …except anti-Gillum ads
It’s revealed that the Republican Party of Florida failed to cease ads criticizing Gillum’s response to Hurricane Hermine in 2016. POLITICO reports those spots, along with spots attacking the mayor’s link to a two-year-long FBI investigation ran “roughly 30 minutes before the storm made landfall” in Pensacola.
Oct. 16, 2018: DeSantis wins the Everglades
The Everglades Trust backs DeSantis over Gillum, noting DeSantis’ staunch opposition to sugar influence. The endorsement turns the tables on the race, as environmentalists concerned for the River of Grass could consider casting their ballot for the former congressman.
Oct. 21, 2018: Candidates meet for the first time
The nationally televised Sunday evening CNN debate marks the first time DeSantis and Gillum meet face to face. The debate unfolds as expected, with both candidates playing it safe, with only a few notable quips. “If the congressman is elected, which he won’t be, he will worship at the feet of Donald Trump,” Gillum said. From DeSantis: “If you believe with that record that he (Gillum) ain’t gonna raise your taxes, then I’ve got some oceanfront property in Arizona I’d like to sell you.”
Oct. 23, 2018: Mischief at the musical?
Records made public by the Florida Commission on Ethics amid an investigation separate from the FBI’s suggest Gillum may have accepted a ticket to the musical “Hamilton” from an undercover FBI agent posing as an out-of-state developer looking to do business with the city of Tallahassee. Gillum maintains that he assumed the tickets were paid for by Marcus Gillum, his brother. This development also suggests Gillum is more implicated in the FBI investigation, although he’s vehemently said he’s not a target.
Oct. 24, 2018: Racism, ‘Hamilton’ take center stage
In the final meeting of the two candidates, DeSantis harps on the recently unearthed records linking Gillum to the FBI. Gillum shifts the focus to race, bringing up DeSantis’ issues with race that have plagued him throughout his campaign. “Now I’m not calling Mr. DeSantis a racist,” Gillum says. “I’m simply saying the racists believe he’s a racist.”
Oct. 24, 2018: Racist robocalls
Another batch of racist robocalls hit Florida phones. This time, DeSantis makes a widely publicized point of distancing himself from the calls. Gillum’s campaign strikes back, accusing the former congressman of using “bigotry as a political ploy,” according to POLITICO Florida.
Oct. 31, 2018: The heaviest of hitters come to Florida
President Trump holds a Halloween rally for DeSantis in Fort Myers. Former President Barack Obama rallies alongside Gillum on Friday in Miami. If they weren’t already, now everyone’s watching the Florida race for Governor. Aren’t you?
