A.G. Gancarski
The Jacksonville mayoral race continues to take shape as 2015 begins, and one big name – Mike Hogan — still appears to be on the sidelines.
I say “appears” deliberately, since a case could be made that a campaign is imminent.
One indication of a campaign: the official campaign website from 2011 – HoganForMayor.Com – is still up (updated on March 8, 2014, by Joseph Hogan, his son… a condition which some believe violate rules against “express advocacy”).
Another indication: his son’s Twitter activity. On December 21, Joseph Hogan tweeted out: “All still rather quiet on the #jaxmayor front. Calm before the storm?” And on December 12, Hogan the Younger tweeted a picture of the Hogan Building downtown, with the message, “Corner of Hogan and Adams, looks like a good spot for a campaign headquarters.”
Indeed it does. If one were running a campaign. As of this writing, Mike Hogan is not. And there are a lot of people — Republicans and Democrats alike — who don’t want that to happen. In that context, unsavory details have been introduced to the running narrative repeatedly, in the hopes of sullying Hogan’s name and reducing him to pastiche so that he doesn’t make 2015 more interesting.
A recent example of the narrative being shaped: the Florida Times-Union’s Tia Mitchell on 12/28, in a piece entitled “Secret Redistricting Documents Show Maps Drawn to Accommodate Mike Hogan,” reviewed emails reported previously in the Tampa Bay Times. These emails from former Mike Hogan political consultant and longtime friend Rich Johnston pertain to remapping legislative districts. In anticipation of a potential Hogan run for the state legislature, on Nov. 10, 2011, Johnston asked to have Hogan’s address included in District 5. Allegedly, District 5 was targeted because the adjacent district, where Hogan’s house was, “had a higher percentage of minorities and Democrats.”
Noteworthy: Mitchell did not mention the TBT piece’s discussion of a similar concession for FSU Prez John Thrasher… possibly because he was sourced in her story. The clear implication readers are intended to reach: Hogan was being positioned for a race, given a friendly district and a non-competitive contest by a Republican Party desirous of protecting its own. Very selective quotations of Hogan are used to create a distinct impression: namely, that Hogan had plans to run in the race and that he was leaning on Rich Johnston, an old friend of the candidate, to ensure an easy path to victory. Hogan has been vilified like no one else in recent Jacksonville politics, and the Times-Union has led the pack. Some theorize that Hogan’s solid base of Westside, old Jacksonville support conflicts with the money behind the Jacksonville Civic Council, a group whose interests are reflected in the day-to-day coverage of the local paper.
Longtime political pros are being forced to choose sides.
Last week, former Duval GOP Chair Rick Hartley threw his hat into the Supervisor of Elections derby – a race that includes, at least on paper, Robin Lumb, the newly elected Duval GOP Chair. What’s funny about all of this: back in October, Lumb was trying to pass the baton to Mike Hogan, telling the Jax Daily Record at the time: “I would have no problem withdrawing from the Supervisor of Elections race if that’s something that Mike Hogan wanted to do,” Lumb said. “If that’s something he wanted to pursue, he would have 100 percent of my support.”
Translation: stop mucking around in the mayoral race and take the consolation prize. The plot thickens further when one considers that Hartley’s exit from the GOP chairmanship, according to some with direct knowledge of the situation, was in part because he had not gotten Hogan to commit to staying out of the race. Most with interest have seen Hartley’s email announcing his support of Lumb for the GOP chair election a couple of weeks back; there is some speculation that the Hartley SOE bid is part of a larger intra party quid pro quo. It remains to be seen if Jacksonville voters will forgive and forget some of the more outre’ positions taken by Hartley and the GOP under his watch, however.
It’s not clear whether Lenny Curry is winning the mayoral race or not. The polling is not especially recent. What is clear, however, is that his team is leading in the internal caucus at the Times-Union, where coverage has been favorable to the former RPOF chair — and less than favorable to his opposition.
Building on a narrative established since the 2011 race, when Hogan’s backing from the Republican Party did not measure up to the nationwide support Brown got, as well as that garnered from Peter Rummell and other prominent Jacksonville Civic Council types, there is evidence of an enduring schism between Hogan and Curry. In the wake of Hogan’s loss, Curry believed the story was not why Hogan lost but why Alvin Brown won, offering the damning epitaph: “excuses are for serial losers.”
The 2011 mayoral race was Mike Hogan’s first defeat in a run for office.
It is known that there has been a lot of research done on Hogan over the last few months (longer, even), and some very knowledgeable folks in the local GOP speculate that Curry has a six figure budget dedicated to going negative on Hogan should he jump in to the race. The Alvin Brown campaign does not want Hogan in either. Even at this late date, with the qualifying deadline just days away, there is worry that Hogan will enter the race, derailing the desired trajectory of the race for both parties: a binary Curry vs. Brown race, one in which Old Jacksonville — the last remnants of the old Jake Godbold coalition — sits on the sidelines.
Hogan has said his share of things that are anathema to the Chamber of Commerce crowd and white liberals alike. He’s not slick or scripted, a fact that hurt him in the runoff election and with his own party before, during, and after the final tally. What Hogan represents, though, is the last gasp of the old “Bold New City of the South.” It might be too late for him to raise seven figures before the primary. That said, if he wants in, he will definitely throw off the trajectory of the race, forcing Curry and Brown off script and into a race more complicated with Hogan than without him.
