NRCC poll: Plurality of swing district voters oppose impeachment—but it’s close

A survey commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is attempting to highlight the potential danger for Democrats in swing districts who pursue the impeachment of President Donald Trump.

Those polling results find a plurality of voters in Republican-held battleground seats oppose impeachment, 49 percent to 46 percent. In so-called “NRCC target seats,” which are currently held by Democrats, the margin is 47 percent against impeachment with 44 percent in favor.

In February, the NRCC named 55 “target” House seats the organization would attempt to flip red in 2020. Those results come from an NRCC memo on the survey.

Also from that memo: “Two-thirds (63 percent) of voters in NRCC target seats and 66% of voters in Republican-held battleground seats agree that Democrats in Congress are too obsessed with impeaching the President and should be working on issues they campaign on such as funding our military, improving the nation’s infrastructure, lowering the cost of prescription drugs, and caring for our nation’s veterans.”

The NRCC survey sampled 800 registered voters. The poll ran Sept. 28-30 and has a margin of error of nearly 3.5 percentage points.

Of course, the source of the survey needs to be considered here.

It’s no surprise that a group aimed at helping elect Republicans to the U.S. House would publicly release a survey showing bad news for Democrats, who appear on a potential path to impeach the President.

Still, on the isolated question of impeachment, those NRCC margins are slim and well within the margin of error. And public polling has shown a sharp move toward favoring impeachment in recent weeks, as more information has come out surrounding Trump’s request that Ukraine investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

If Democrats continue down the impeachment path and uncover more information, it’s possible those numbers could move even further in their favor. Just Thursday, Trump explicitly stated his desire for Ukraine to open an investigation and added China should be investigating Biden as well.

Biden is currently running to challenge Trump for the presidency in 2020. Trump argues Hunter Biden’s business dealings are the source of potential corruption and that former Vice President Biden interfered with a Ukrainian investigation into Hunter. Thus far, those allegations by Trump have been repeatedly debunked.

According to the NRCC’s memo on the survey, 51 percent of independents oppose impeachment, and 46 percent of voters in target seats are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports impeachment.