Prediction markets says Pete Buttigieg won Democratic Debate

Pete Buttigieg has a new book extolling trust in politicians and politics

According to users of online prediction/betting site PredictIt, Pete Buttigieg was the winner of Wednesday night’s Democratic debate in Georgia, as forecasters backed the South Bend Mayor overnight with money predicting he’ll see an immediate bump in poll numbers over the next week.

Buttigieg’s performance also prompted users of the site to put more money on his chances of winning the Iowa caucuses (37%), the New Hampshire primary (31%), the Democratic nomination (31%) and the general election (13%), pulling even with former Vice President Joe Biden in the last two propositions. Buttigieg now leads the PredictIt field in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, Biden appears to have been the worst-performer of the night, with PredictIt users putting his odds at 62% of seeing the biggest plunge in poll numbers following the debate.

PredictIt is run by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand; participants can place wagers on candidates and other political props by buying “shares” on a bet, costing between 1 cent and 1 dollar per share. A share valued at 50 cents equates to a 50 percent chance of winning the proposition.

PredictIt users, who often identify political trends before polls do, appear now to believe Buttigieg will ride momentum from Iowa into New Hampshire as the favorite, and potentially even into Nevada and South Carolina, where they are now betting more money on Buttigieg as the winner of each.

Aside from Buttigieg and Biden, most of the rest of the Democratic field failed to do much to change gamblers’ attitudes, positively or negatively.

National front-runner Elizabeth Warren is still the top pick to win the nomination (26 cents), with Buttigieg and Biden tied for second (22 cents). Bernie Sanders is fourth at 15 cents.

For the general election, President Donald Trump is trading as the favorite to win at 41 cents, with Warren second (15 cents), Buttigieg and Biden tied for third (13 cents), Sanders fifth (10 cents), and Andrew Yang (7 cents), Michael Bloomberg (6 cents), Mike Pence (3 cents), and Hillary Clinton (3 cents) following.