Staff Reports
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Economist Sean Snaith calls it Florida’s Osgood-Schlatter disease.
Growing pains, specifically the kind that give fast-growing teenagers wobbly, sore knees.
It’s one of the key themes to the latest economic forecast for Florida just released by the University of Central Florida Institute for Economic Forecasting, which Snaith runs.
“These achy knees take the forms of a housing shortage and a transportation network deficit,” the latest report, “2019-2022 Florida & Metro FORECAST.”
The good news: Florida’s economic growth should continue to outpace the country. The bad news: it’ll start slowing a bit in the next couple of years as the state’s deficits in housing and transportation infrastructure make all of Floridians’ knees ache.
From 2019-22, Florida’s economy, as measured by real gross state product, should expand at an average annual rate of 2.8%. But that’ll play out as 3.1% for 2019 when the final numbers come in, 2.8% for 2020 and ‘21, and 2.4% for 2022.
Payroll, labor force, personal income, housing starts and retail sales all should similarly top national growth trends while declining slightly from year to year.
“Florida’s annual checkup reveals an economy that is as healthy as it could be: the labor market continues to thrive,” Snaith reports.
But …
“The low inventory of housing has continued to put upward pressure on prices and rents … Underlying this affordable housing problem is the need for continued upgrades to the transportation infrastructure … that can get workers to their jobs from areas where housing is more affordable will be essential to Florida solving its achy knees,” the report states.
“The state needs infrastructure investment, not anti-inflammatories. The sooner, the better,” it states.
Evening Reads
“For Donald Trump, the burden may be proving this is not the moment his critics predicted” via Peter Baker of The New York Times
“Vice President Mike Pence to hold rally in Kissimmee for ‘Latinos for Trump’ group” via Steven Lemongello of the Orlando Sentinel
“A test for Latinos for Trump as Pence heads to heart of Florida Puerto Rican community” via David Smiley of the Miami Herald
“It’s 2003 all over again” via David A. Graham of The Atlantic
“The very real scenario of a protracted, ‘bizarro world’ Democratic primary” via David Siders of POLITICO
“8 reasons why the Florida constitutional amendment on ‘casino gambling’ does not bar the legislative authorization of sports betting” via Daniel Wallach for Forbes
“Watchdog group warns of Florida lawmakers controlling local governments” via Lawrence Mower of the Tampa Bay Times
“Guns, abortion top 2020 Legislative Session agenda” via James Call of the Tallahassee Democrat
“State economist: Expect ‘Intense slowdown’ of property tax collections” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
“How far will Joe Gruters go?” via David Hackett of Sarasota Magazine
“Seminole labor attorney Patricia Sigman, a Democrat, joins crucial state Senate race” via Gray Rohrer of the Orlando Sentinel
“Jennifer Webb files legislation to curb ‘unnecessary’ Baker Acts in Florida schools” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics
“Wengay Newton to forego another term in Florida House, will run for Pinellas Co. Commission” via Janelle Irwin of Florida Politics
“City attorneys request more time to investigate suspended JEA CEO Aaron Zahn” via Chris Hong of the Florida Times-Union
“Voting rights restoration gives felons a voice in more states” via Matt Vasilogambros for the Florida Phoenix
“Harvey Weinstein on trial: Why a culture of secrecy extends to the courtroom” via Eriq Gardner of The Hollywood Reporter
“SpaceX’s next Starlink launch will kick off busy period for the Space Coast” via Emre Kelly of Florida Today
Quote of the Day
“I am everything the fake news media tells you doesn’t exist. A strong, Trump-supporting, gun-owning, liberty-loving, pro-life, politically incorrect black man.” — State Rep. Byron Donalds, announcing his run for Florida’s 19th Congressional District
Bill Day’s Latest
Breakthrough Insights
Wake Up Early?
The Social Services Estimating Conference will meet to go over state Medicaid spending. They convene at 9 a.m. at the Knott Building.
Sen. Darryl Rouson and Rep. Ben Diamond will unveil legislation to foster arts education during at a news conference in St. Petersburg. It will be held at 9:15 a.m. at The Dali Museum, 1 Dali Blvd.
Sen. Linda Stewart and Commissioner Rachel Saunders Plakon will hold a news conference at the Orange County History Center, 65 E. Central Blvd., Orlando, regarding the State Women’s Suffrage Centennial Commission. It begins at 11:30 a.m.
