Fresh Mason-Dixon poll: Joe Biden tops Donald Trump in Florida

Trump leads Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders or Pete Buttigieg

Former Vice President Joe Biden is currently favored over President Donald Trump in Florida for a 2020 presidential match, while Trump holds advantages over all other Democrats, according to the latest Mason-Dixon poll.

The new survey shows Biden, who’s been leading Democratic presidential polls, topping Trump 47 percent to 45 percent among registered voters in Florida, with the difference well within the poll’s 4 percent margin of error.

Trump holds leads over three other top Democrats, according to Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy of Jacksonville.

Trump tops U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts by a 51-42 spread; U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, 49-44; and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 49-45.

In all four hypothetical matchups, just 6-8 percent of the voters say they are undecided.

Mason-Dixon conducted its poll of 625 registered Florida voters by live telephone calls, Dec. 11-16.

The findings are consistent with other Florida polls that have shown Biden with leads ranging from a half-point to nine points last summer. while Trump generally lead other Democratic candidates.

As with those other polls, there is little party crossover vote expected in Florida according to Mason-Dixon. In the latest poll, no Democrat attracts more than 5 percent of the Republican vote in the various matchups. On the other hand, Trump attracts 6-9 percent of the Democratic votes against Warren, Sanders or Buttigieg, but only 3 percent against Biden.

That Democratic loyalty to Biden plus independent voters give the former Vice President the thin edge as 2019 closes out.

In the Mason-Dixon poll, Trump leads among Florida’s independent voters by ten points against Sanders, 8 points against Warren, and 1 point against Buttigieg.

Biden holds a 2-point advantage over Trump among Florida’s independent voters.

Also as other polls have shown, Trump wins big among white voters, and among men. Meanwhile, all four Democrats in the survey hold strong majorities of support among women voters and among Hispanic voters, and overwhelming majorities among black voters.

The biggest demographic margins supporting Trump find men preferring him to Warren by a 59 percent to 36 percent spread, and white voters preferring him to Warren by a 65-28 spread. Among the Democrats, Biden manages to do best with men, getting 43 percent of their vote. Buttigieg does best with white voters, getting 36 percent.

Buttigieg does best among women voters as well, getting 52 percent to Trump’s 40. Biden does best among black voters, getting 92 percent against Trump’s 4, and with Hispanic voters, getting 61 percent to Trump’s 32. Trump’s best performance with women comes in a matchup with Warren, when he gets 44 percent to her 47. Trump’s best standings with black voters [12 percent] and Hispanic voters [37 percent] both come in matchups with Buttigieg.

Scott Powers

Scott Powers is an Orlando-based political journalist with 30+ years’ experience, mostly at newspapers such as the Orlando Sentinel and the Columbus Dispatch. He covers local, state and federal politics and space news across much of Central Florida. His career earned numerous journalism awards for stories ranging from the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster to presidential elections to misplaced nuclear waste. He and his wife Connie have three grown children. Besides them, he’s into mystery and suspense books and movies, rock, blues, basketball, baseball, writing unpublished novels, and being amused. Email him at [email protected].


  • Carole

    December 31, 2019 at 11:34 am

    I am a born and raised Floridian and I can assure you that this is not true. Don’t believe any poll you see. You have no way of telling how they are done. Every poll I have responded to online, except one, I have been able to vote as many times as I wanted and could change who I voted for so there is no way that they are accurate. If you haven’t tried it, try it. If you actually talk to the voters in Florida you will find that most are big Trump fans and that includes people that are registered Dems. I have found this to be true every time I’m in a group of people in waiting rooms for doctors appts and other similar situations. If two people are talking politics it doesn’t take but a minute or two before other people join in to express their views. If there are any Dems in the mix they are so outnumbered they don’t have a chance to say anything. If it’s a long wait, after listening to Trump fans talk about the good things he has done for us and the country a lot of times a Dem will say, I didn’t know Trump did that and that they are going to vote for him.

    • Renee L Still Day

      December 31, 2019 at 12:18 pm

      That’s crap. What Dem could POSSIBLY think that Trump has done ANYTHING for them, unless they are WHITE, RICH and FAKE CHRISTIAN THUGS. He’s destroying our water, land, environment, wages, taxes, wildlife, women, LGBTQs, all people of color and children. Our immigration laws suck – that freaking wall that Mexico is NOT paying for is costing Texans their land and they are suing. The children they’ve taken from the border are going through adoptions by a company connected to BETSY DEVOS and our foreign allies are no longer there for us. We have crapped on the KURDS and now the military is making their way to dump Trump as well. He is a tool of Russia and he has allowed Saudi Arabia to slaughter one of our residents and then cover up for them, allowed the Russians to tour up and down our East Coast and Russian fighter jets to cruise over Alaska at will. He sucks up to dictators while lying to the American people with every breath he takes. He’s a COWARDLY PERVERTED TRAITOR~! Tell me again your theory about Florida Dems.

      • Thesilentones

        December 31, 2019 at 8:30 pm

        How much crack are you smoking?!?! Hanging out with Hunter is bad for your brain. President Trump has done more for our country, contradictory to the above statement, which is riddled with lies or misinformation. Your choice but both mean the same thing.

        If you seriously cannot see EVERYTHING President Trumps administration has done for our beautiful country then you are doing so by nothing other than choice. You are choosing to be blind to actual facts, to REAL information, and lastly, you are choosing to remain blind simply because you see the world as democrats or nothing. I know a numerous (that’s multiple and not single digits but double digits) Democrats who are not only democrats but are black democrats that have completely changed their mind over the past 3 years on President Trump. These are real people, not digital friends, but actual people I have spoken to in person.

        You are welcome to carry on living in your version of reality but if you think 2016 hurt then I suggest aN indefinite self induced coma because the 2020 Presidential Election will go to the one and only deserving candidate, President Trump.

        Happy New Years ya filthy animals!

        Oh and I agree 100% with the first comment by Carole. What she stated is absolutely 100% true, no question about it.

        • Andy Joseph

          January 1, 2020 at 7:55 am

          The silent tones listed all the things he has done wrong as president real facts , sucking up to dictators ( Reagan is rolling over in his grave and Bush senior) you said he has done great things but listed none of the great things he has done. He did accomplish tax cuts, so all we have to do is look at our pay checks if your middle to lower class and see if it helped.
          As I a moderate dem I wanted to see the infrastructure bill ( did not happen) I wanted to see him lower prescription drug prices (Did not happen) Improve health care (Did not happen) Answer subpoenas like you and I would have to. Did not happen. I guess the powerful are above the law. Also he had a republican house and senate his first 2 years. Tell me what did he accomplished? Please educate this political junkie!
          However to all my fellow Democrats he may very well win, because as history has shown us if we are not in a recession and the economy is or the stock market is humming an incumbent president will be hard to beat.
          No name calling after all we are all Americans and our country is great because of its people not politicians!!! Happy new year!

        • Laurie

          January 6, 2020 at 7:46 am

          What has he done? Besides the tax cut and trying to destroy Obama’s legacy that is all.

      • Thesilentones

        December 31, 2019 at 8:40 pm

        You are so terribly misled and I honestly feel bad for you because you are missing out on true American history. History that this country truly needed. You are missing out on a Great American movement back to who we are and what it means to be an American. I challenge you to research the exact opposite of your fictitious statements above. No, seriously. I ask you to read factual information that completely contradicts the lies above. I’m not saying your intentionally lying. I’m saying you are severely misinformed. You can fire back that I’m wrong, I’m a crazy right wing bigot homotransphobe, whatever you’d like… but in the end, it’s you who is missing out on greatness, not me. Additionally, I have one last question, if President Trump is a Russian asset or whatever the Russian claim is, then why in the world is he arming Ukraine with REAL military weapons? Why didn’t Obama provide REAL military weapons? He didn’t provide one, not a single military weapon to help Ukraine fight against Russia. In fact, if you don’t believe me, I suggest researching the US CIA’s role in overthrowing the Ukraine government under Obama and while Clinton was Secretary of state. Our CIA strong armed and manipulated Ukraine into leaving a very good deal with Russia to a terrible, corrupt deal with the US. This is absolutely, 100% factual and is easily proven by court documents, I promise you. Aside from that, the CIA was involved in killing over 100 innocent Ukrainians in order to overthrow the Ukraine government by force. Also heavily documented. Don’t just dismiss my statements please. Please look into what I am saying and just maybe you will see you’ve been lied to by the MSM for well over 20 years.

      • Dave

        December 31, 2019 at 9:56 pm

        You are nuts. With the economy booming Trump will easily win Florida again.

  • Leo

    January 2, 2020 at 12:02 pm

    I’m actually sitting at a dealership right now waiting for my car to be serviced. There are 7 people here, 5 of us are strong (I mean strong) Trump supporters. The other 2 have said nothing, except smile politely. I don’t know where the Dems are, but I’m telling you, Trump supporters far outweigh Dems everywhere we go in central Florida. By the way, I’m a naturalized US citizen, originally born in Venezuela. I love this country with a passion. The left destroyed Venezuela. I’m terrified to see how the Dems are trying to turn this country into a socialist nation… a sh_t hole like Venezuela, Cuba, etc. I beg you all, DO NOT vote Democrat – unless you want anti-Americans destroy us from within.

  • Leo

    January 2, 2020 at 12:17 pm

    I just came back from a family reunion in Miami. We had a whole bunch of people in it. I’ll say we had about 6 or 7 kids and 2 teenagers in the group. Without exaggeration, all (ALL) adults were Trump supporters… and we all vote. Half the participants came from Texas. Prior to the reunion we agreed to not talk politics, but it was impossible to avoid the subject. As we began talking, it was quickly realized that we were all either very conservative and/or disillusioned Democrats. At least 3 had posted “walk-away” testimonies about leaving the Democrat party.

  • florence roistacher

    January 2, 2020 at 3:11 pm

    I read recent comments of a reporter who contacted some of Trumps classmates at Wharton and they said he never opened a book and talked only on money and graduated with a 2 ../none of the is a surprise. He is Sundowning as he says hze sleeps only three hours a nite and psychiatrists say this produces fatigue which creates hallucinations and delusions which is what you have now in a rigged election.

    • Leo

      January 2, 2020 at 11:27 pm

      Did the reporter published an article about it? If so, would you share the link to the publication?

Comments are closed.


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