Poll: Joe Biden, Donald Trump in statistical dead heat in Florida
Image via AP.

1000 (32)
Biden with less than a 1-point lead, while voters split on Trump's performance.

The latest survey shows the race to win Florida’s 29 electoral votes is as tight as ever.

New numbers from St. Pete Polls puts Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump by less than one percentage point, within the poll’s 1.3 point margin of error, meaning there is a dead heat.

Specifically, Biden leads Trump 48.3% to 47.5% among registered Florida voters, with only 4.2% undecided more than six months out.

Yet the poll also gives the President a slight nod of approval, with a 49.4% favorable rating and a 47.6% unfavorable rating. Florida voters also give Trump an even split on rating the job he’s been doing in the coronavirus crisis, with identical 48% proportions approving and disapproving.

Trump is holding slight leads in Florida’s critical I-4 corridor, topping Biden in the Tampa Bay media market 50% to 45% and in the Orlando market 49% to 46%.

Biden is crushing Trump in the Miami market, 61% to 35%, and leading in the West Palm Beach market, Trump’s home, by a tighter 50% to 47% margin.

Elsewhere, Trump is leading significantly across all of North Florida and the Panhandle, except for in the Tallahassee market, and in Fort Myers.

Trump takes 80% of Republicans’ preferences and 16% of Democrats’, while Biden takes 80% of Democrats’ and 17% of Republicans’. Independent voters are slightly preferring Biden, 48% to 46% over Trump.

Digging in further, Biden dominates Trump among black voters, leading 84% to 8.%. Biden also narrowly wins among Hispanics, 48% to 47%. Trump leads large among white voters, with a margin of 56% to 41%.

The former Vice President also holds leads among the 18 to 29 and 30 to 49 age brackets, while Trump is ahead with older voters.

A poll earlier this week put Biden ahead of Trump in Arizona by a comfortable 9 percentage points. Were Biden to win Arizona and Florida, he could defeat Trump even without winning Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin, assuming the remainder of the 2016 electoral map remains the same.

Saturday, Biden’s campaign also released an ad in several battleground states — including Florida — asserting Trump “rolled over” regarding the spread of the novel coronavirus.

That serves as a counter to a Trump campaign ad attempting to paint Biden as soft on China. Fact-checkers have criticized the Trump ad for being deceptively edited.

Biden was handed a huge win last month in Florida’s Democratic presidential primary, when he defeated U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont 62% to 23%.

Sanders has since ended his campaign for the Democratic nomination and endorsed Biden, making him the party’s presumptive nominee. Former President Barack Obama, who Biden served under, has also backed his former VP, so too did former foe U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

The St. Pete Polls survey sampled 5,659 registered voters and ran from April 16 to 17.

Ryan Nicol

Ryan Nicol covers news out of South Florida for Florida Politics. Ryan is a native Floridian who attended undergrad at Nova Southeastern University before moving on to law school at Florida State. After graduating with a law degree he moved into the news industry, working in TV News as a writer and producer, along with some freelance writing work. If you'd like to contact him, send an email to [email protected].


  • John Kociuba

    April 18, 2020 at 2:33 pm

    Lmao! Whatever! Illegal Immigrants counted in this poll? Probably.

    • John Kociuba

      April 18, 2020 at 2:37 pm

      Notice the “CON-JOB” that majority of polls is about 1,000 and don’t disclose questions or geography localization where poll was taken.

      Do 1000 people speak for millions of voters? No.

    • James

      April 18, 2020 at 6:53 pm

      So what if the did? Prove it!

    • Anes11

      April 18, 2020 at 10:31 pm

      No. Felons and Puerto Rican’s

  • Paula

    April 18, 2020 at 3:10 pm

    My husband and I are white and over 65 and live in Florida. We’re voting for BIDEN.

    • Michael O'Rourke

      April 18, 2020 at 4:44 pm

      That puts you in the minority according to this poll. I don’t understand your decision to vote for someone who is failing mentally, but we are allow to make those decisions. Good luck with your choice.

    • Matthew

      April 18, 2020 at 6:51 pm

      I know, these older voters who support Trump must be way older and not even know who they are voting for!

    • Jim

      April 19, 2020 at 10:22 am

      Please urge your neighbors and friends in Florida to also vote for Biden.
      The corrupt Carnival barker in the WH needs to go. We need a Leader for this great country.

    • Joshua

      April 20, 2020 at 4:16 pm

      Thank you

  • Michael O'Rourke

    April 18, 2020 at 4:47 pm

    That puts you in the minority according to this poll. I don’t understand your decision to vote for someone who is failing mentally, but we are allow to make those decisions. Good luck with your choice.

  • Michael O'Rourke

    April 18, 2020 at 4:49 pm

    Ryan you seem gleeful in writing an article that basically says the race is tied. What you don’t report is the margin of error of that poll or whether the polled persons are likely voters, a more realistic and accurate polling process.

  • Bartholomew

    April 18, 2020 at 6:59 pm

    Michael it seems you cant read or maybe its reading bad news but the poll is a St. Pete poll (local) of registered voters. If anyone is failing mentally its the Trumpster forgetting what he called one of the US’s most famous veterans and his love for the other side. But soon he will be in prison orange and in a safe padded cell unless he escapes to Russia or North Korea first!

  • Bush Gore II

    April 19, 2020 at 8:29 am

    Scrutiny of the butterfly ballot hanging chad will be replaced by the vote-by-mail ballot signature.

  • martin

    April 19, 2020 at 10:57 am

    Joe (what day of the week is it?). Joe (what state are we in?). Joe (confuse my wife and sister?). Joe (what office are we running for?). Joe (I like to stand behind women and sniff their hair).
    Joe (I am so happy the media is ignoring my sexual harassment issues). Joe (I have been in Washington for over 40 years, name one of my accomplishments?).

    • Simon

      April 19, 2020 at 12:13 pm

      Yes Martin, Joe still has nothing on racist, non-model woman hater, veteran denier, Putin loving, bankruptcy expert, and con-man Trump.

  • Jay

    April 20, 2020 at 12:31 am

    Trump 2020

  • Joshua

    April 20, 2020 at 4:17 pm

    I’m a 29 year old white male and I’m voting for Biden!! FLORIDA IS BIDEN COUNTRY!!! Biden isn’t Clinton. African Americans and suburban whites will bring us to victory! BEAT TRUMP!

    • Anes11

      April 24, 2020 at 12:57 pm

      Blexit! African Americans were way worse off under Obama for eight dreadful years. Time to get off the Democrat plantation. They want oppression and dependency.

Comments are closed.


Florida Politics is a statewide, new media platform covering campaigns, elections, government, policy, and lobbying in Florida. This platform and all of its content are owned by Extensive Enterprises Media.

Publisher: Peter Schorsch @PeterSchorschFL

Contributors & reporters: Phil Ammann, Drew Dixon, Roseanne Dunkelberger, A.G. Gancarski, Anne Geggis, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, Cole Pepper, Gray Rohrer, Jesse Scheckner, Christine Sexton, Drew Wilson, and Mike Wright.

Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @PeterSchorschFL
Phone: (727) 642-3162
Address: 204 37th Avenue North #182
St. Petersburg, Florida 33704