A.G. Gancarski
With each passing day in 2015, Lenny Curry can point to a new success in his Jacksonville mayoral campaign. The endorsement of Sheriff John Rutherford. The ability to trumpet strong December fundraising numbers, even as the other two campaigns are still finalizing their reports. And now, preemptive endorsements from two highly-touted potential Republican Presidential candidates: Senator Marco Rubio and Texas Governor Rick Perry.
Neither endorsement came as a complete surprise to those close to the ground here. Rubio and Curry have operated in the same circles for some time now, and Curry has spoken favorably about Perry before. That said, these endorsements are notable in Jacksonville politics for a couple of reasons.
The first: they come really early in the cycle, almost three months before the March blanket primary. The second: they harness the imprimaturs of national figures to establish Curry’s credibility and conservative bona fides.
They’re good gets, so to speak. And they represent a contrast from Mayor Alvin Brown, a Clinton protégé who has not exactly gone to war for the Democratic Party during his time in office. He did very little to help the Charlie Crist campaign last year, and in 2012, he distanced himself from the Obama operation, before eventually saying he intended to vote for the President.
Brown promised to stay out of partisan campaigns and work across party lines as mayor – a promise some would argue he has fulfilled to a fault, as evidenced by a Times-Union piece this week extolling the bond that the Jacksonville Mayor and the Republican Governor have formed. This bond, reports Tia Mitchell, gives the Mayor hope that Governor Rick Scott will not tender an endorsement in the Mayoral race (which definitely remains to be seen).
Some disagree with Brown’s claim of being non-partisan. Notably, Brian Hughes, the spokesman for the Lenny Curry campaign.
“The mayor’s claims to be non-partisan are as empty as his words,” Hughes said, in reference to Brown’s platitudinous oratorical style. “This is a man who James Carville, a partisan attack dog, says Hillary Clinton will bestow political gifts upon. His professional history is a list of political cronyism from fellow liberals.”
Predictably, highly-placed Jacksonville Democrats have gone on the offensive, as it relates to the Perry endorsement. One zinger related to this writer from one of the leading Democrats in the city, a man familiar with the thinking of the Mayor’s Office: “Getting the Rick Perry endorsement is like a Gator coach being praised by his FSU and Georgia counterparts,” he said, adding the hypothetical question: “Has Rick Perry been able to remember the third Cabinet department he was going to eliminate as President?”
This Democrat went on to remind this writer of some of the lowlights of Perry’s soundbite history, saying that “if a candidate trumpets an out of state endorsement, voters have a right to know more about the endorser,” referring to past controversies. “To the extent Curry claims to be reaching out to traditionally Democratic constituencies, this would absolutely impact his ‘target audience’,” he added.
Rick Perry has, indeed, put his foot in his mouth on a few occasions. He also has evolved over his years in politics, making news last year for coming out in favor of marijuana decriminalization in Texas – a more libertarian, even “transformational” position than any Florida politician has taken on this issue – and one that no one running in any Jacksonville race in 2015 will dare to take.
When asked about the Democratic attacks on Perry, Hughes didn’t take the bait.
“Endorsements come from groups and individuals who voice support for Lenny Curry’s plan for the future of Jacksonville. In these announcements, these people have recognized that Lenny is a small business owner and a community leader with the right experience to make Jacksonville better. We welcome their support and recognition,” Hughes said in a written statement.
The other Republican in the Mayoral derby, Bill Bishop, is skeptical about the ultimate importance of these national endorsements. “What Rick Perry thinks of Jacksonville is irrelevant. Perry doesn’t have a lot to do with Jacksonville,” Bishop said, adding that these endorsements allow Curry to “signal that he’s a big national power broker, which is not something that Jacksonville will get on board with.”
“Endorsements don’t make a lot of difference in this race,” Bishop added. “Jacksonville is not a hardcore Republican partisan town,” he said, citing the fact that Duval County has more registered Democrats than Republicans. Bishop speculated that the endorsements were advanced because polls were not favoring Curry. “If he had positive polls, he’d be trumpeting them from the rooftops.”
That said, Bishop dismissed the Democratic canard about Perry’s problematic statements as “old news… only an issue if someone repeats his statements and ties them to Lenny Curry.” He seemed extremely skeptical of the efficacy of that move. It’s certainly not anything his campaign intends to do.
And he doesn’t think the Brown operation – a remarkably torpid campaign so far – will be able to pull that off should they try it.
“Brown ran more like a Republican than a Democrat,” Bishop said regarding 2011. And he seems to see that as a calculated move.
“Jacksonville is philosophically conservative,” said Bishop, pointing out that the shift from Democrat to Republican domination in this city was concomitant with the larger shift among Sunbelt Republicans in the Reagan/Bush era. Bishop believes that people are more concerned with issues – “library hours… potholes being filled… working sewers” – than about out-of-context statements a national endorser of a local candidate might have made.
Is he right? What is certain is that Mayor Brown has yet to close the deal for reelection. The pension plan, approved by City Council last year, is locked in revision limbo as I write this, and it is an open question whether the Police and Fire Pension Fund and the City Council can come to accord in a timely manner – especially with prominent Republicans, like Council President Clay Yarborough, supporting a state investigation into the long beleaguered Pension Fund.
The mayor punted on the question of Courthouse Weddings this week, reminding activists who supported him last time of his lassitude on the Human Rights Ordinance being extended to the LGBT community. He has yet to establish real coattails – there is no such thing in Jacksonville as an “Alvin Brown Democrat”, because he has, say his critics, functioned more as a city manager than as a mayor with a vision.
All of this is to say that, right now, Curry has the efficient operation of a man who has already won the race. And Alvin Brown is going to have to make the biggest sale of his political career. To even have a shot at it, he’s going to have to call in whatever favors and reinforcements he can, reneging on his pledge to be non-partisan in the process. And even then, there is risk.
Those familiar with Mike Hogan’s thinking contend that he believes the biggest mistake he made in 2011 was not “going negative” on Brown. The Curry operation, lethally efficient and as sophisticated as any we’ve seen locally, will not make such a mistake. As Alvin Brown’s campaign sleeps, Lenny Curry builds momentum. That sound you hear? An alarm clock, telling Jacksonville’s Mayor to wake up. Will Mayor Brown take his earplugs out? That’s the open question.
