Drew Wilson
A new poll commissioned by Kat Cammack’s congressional campaign found the Republican primary for Florida’s 3rd Congressional District is a two-way race between her and Judson Sapp.
The WPA Intelligence poll found Sapp, who ran for the seat two years ago against incumbent U.S. Rep. Ted Yoho, in the lead with 12% support among Republican primary voters. Cammack followed with 10% support.
Of the eight other candidates who will appear on the Aug. 18, only former Gainesville City Commissioner Todd Chase registered enough support (5%) to outweigh the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
The remainder of the field either showed up in the low single digits or fell in the catchall of “unsure,” which accounted for 60% of survey respondents.
The poll identified another positive angle for the Cammack camp — her support is stronger among self-identified Donald Trump Republicans, 15% of whom say she’s their top pick. Among that crowd, Sapp places second with 12% support, and again no other candidate breaks out of low single digits.
It’s also a two-way race in favorability, with 14% of the 36% of Republican primary voters who are familiar with Cammack saying they view her favorably. That figure grows to 18% among Republicans who have voted in the past four primary elections.
Sapp, meanwhile, is viewed favorably by one in five Republicans in the North Central Florida district.
Despite much of the electorate remaining up for grabs, the Cammack campaign touted the poll as proof they’re well-positioned to win the nomination.
“Kat Cammack is in an incredibly strong position as the race in FL-03 heats up and the candidates at the top of the field stand out from the large pack of ten Republicans competing in the primary to fill Congressman Ted Yoho’s seat next year. She is in a statistical tie for first in polling, is one of the top candidates with regards to fundraising, and leads the field in grassroots endorsements. There is a long way to go between now and Election Day, but momentum is clearly on Kat’s side as we head into the summer,” said Derek Dufresne, Kat Cammack’s general consultant.
“It is also important to note that despite having his name on the ballot less than two years ago and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to get 26% of the vote, repeat candidate Judson Sapp hasn’t even closed the deal with half of those who voted for him last time around. It is clear that the voters of FL-03 are looking for a fresh conservative candidate who will stand with President Trump and fight for their values in Congress — and Kat Cammack is well-positioned to be that woman.”
The WPAi poll was conducted June 16-17 and has a sample size of 405 Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +4.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Cammack, a former Yoho staffer, has rolled out a long list of endorsements in the weeks since the qualifying deadline. Most recently, she earned a nod from Gilchrist Sheriff Bobby Schultz, with other backers including politicians ranging from the city level up to U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.
Sapp has also received some top-tier endorsements, including U.S. Reps. Vern Buchanan and John Rutherford as well as former U.S. Rep. Cliff Stearns, who represented CD 3 for several terms before being ousted by Yoho in 2012.
Other candidates on the ballot include Ryan Chamberlin, Chase, Bill Engelbrecht, Joe Dallas Millado, Gavin Rollins, James St. George, David Theus and Amy Pope Wells.
Through the end of March, Sapp had about $310,000 in the bank, second only to St. George. Both candidates have leaned heavily on their own wealth to fund their congressional campaigns. Cammack is No. 3 in both total raised and cash on hand, with about $166,000 banked on March 31.
CD 3 covers Alachua, Bradford, Clay, Putnam and Union counties as well as part of Marion. It is a safe Republican seat.
The polling memo is below.
Cammack/WPAi CD 3 Republican Primary Poll by Andrew Wilson on Scribd
