A.G. Gancarski
The 2016 presidential election was a nailbiter in Florida, with roughly 100,000 votes putting Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton.
2020 appears to be similarly close, mirroring a trend of elections that confound pollsters and pundits until the final vote is counted.
However, according to one prominent forecaster, Florida may be a “toss up,” but Democratic nominee Joe Biden is “slightly favored” to take the state in November, according to the Cook Political Report‘s Amy Walter.
Walter’s Florida stance is of a piece with her larger read on the race.
“This election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a Blue wave,” Walter notes.
“President Trump, mired in some of the lowest job approval ratings of his presidency, is … even running behind Biden in his firewall states of Florida and North Carolina,” Walter adds.
Florida and North Carolina, ironically, are now yoked in the ongoing narrative of the Trump Administration seeking the optics of a 2016 base-rallying event in the pandemic atmosphere of 2020. Whether the convention drama has anything to do with polling is an open question, but surveys show Biden with a consistent edge.
The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows a Joe Biden lead that, while outside the margin of error of most polls, is likely too close for comfort, with Biden up in the aggregate, 48% to 43%.
That number is skewed by the most recent survey added to the average, via GOP-leaning Trafalgar, a poll which shows an even race, with Biden and Trump each the choice of 46% of those surveyed.
Most polls show swing voters breaking to Biden, at least at this early point in the running.
In 2016, polling in Florida showed generally a race that was too close to call, but with a Clinton edge, and Republicans with experience in this state note a bias in the public polling toward Democratic candidates.
However, it’s worth watching to see if between now and November, pollsters, prognosticators, and pundits become more confident in saying that Florida, at long last, will go Blue.
8 comments
Sonja Fitch
July 8, 2020 at 10:19 am
The folks in Florida have had enough of the paranoid delusional racist sexist sociopath liar trump! It’s always about HIM! The Putin loving scum traitor trump is a damn disgrace! The cheating lying schooling is pathetic! This piece of crap needs to be flushed out of America!
Harold Finch
July 9, 2020 at 8:53 am
WHy don’t you tell us how you really feel! You obviously are a crazy liberal, socialist manhater!!
Paul
July 9, 2020 at 4:20 pm
Harold you really think that effiminate, spolied, cry-baby, lying con-man, traitor and draft dodging wig mannikin is a man? Hate to know who your life role models have been.
botstotheleftofmenazistotheright
July 9, 2020 at 9:39 am
How’s the weather in Moscow, Sonja?
James R. Miles
July 9, 2020 at 6:20 pm
Why don’t you ask Trump, he knows Putin in a treasonous unAmerican way!
PeterH
July 9, 2020 at 3:58 pm
COVID-19 has put both Ron DeSantis and Trump at risk in Florida. Horrible State Coronavirus leadership and a totally failed presidency. Trump has tanked the terrific 4.6% unemployment and the longest period of economic expansion in American history that he ungraciously inherited from the Obama administration. Add to this administration’s incompetent mess ….the $4 trillion addition to the National debt BEFORE THE PANDEMIC. Imagine what the debt will look like once this clown is booted from office! Let’s not forget babies in cages, Mueller investigation that resulted in 20 indictments and 12 convictions and now the SCOTUS has released the State of New York to go after Trump’s tax returns and corrupt money laundering schemes. Rightfully so ….. Trump has summarily lost 95 court cases in the past 3.5 years. Thankfully …. the world’s long national nightmare is coming to a close.
martin
July 9, 2020 at 5:26 pm
The silent majority does not respond to polls. However, we will turn out to vote in mass. We have had enough of these liberal screwballs ruining our nation.
James R. Miles
July 9, 2020 at 6:19 pm
Oh, you mean Trump? Trump HAS ruined America after all! He is the ultimate screwball, whinny man-child egotistical moron!
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