Latest poll of Florida: Joe Biden 50%, Donald Trump 44%
Donald Trump may have enjoyed a post-convention bounce, but it wasn't enough to overtake Joe Biden in the polls.

Biden Trump
Biden’s 6% lead falls comfortably outside the margin of error.

A new survey shows Joe Biden’s support on the rise in the Sunshine State.

If the presidential election were held today, 50% of Florida voters would pick Biden and 44% would vote for Donald Trump, according to fresh numbers from St. Pete Polls. Another 2% of voters plan to vote for a third-party candidate while 3% remain undecided.

The poll was conducted for Florida Politics and AARP Florida on July 13 and 14. Pollsters report a margin of error of 1.8%.

Biden’s 6% lead falls comfortably outside the margin of error.

More notable than the gap between the candidates, this marks the first poll from the firm that finds the Democrat enjoying support from more than half of respondents. The low number of undecided voters in the race portends poor news for the President regarding the outcome of the election in his adopted home state.

The Florida-based polling firm last surveyed voters regarding the race for President in May. Then, Biden held a statistically insignificant lead of less than 1%.

In the intervening weeks, Florida suffered a spike in COVID-19 cases and Trump and Florida’s Republican leadership came under national media scrutiny.

That’s all translated into a boost for Biden and a blow to Trump.

A look at the crosstabs for the latest poll shows Biden making the greatest gains among swing voters.

Biden is now the choice of nearly 53% of Florida independent voters, while just 39% favor Trump. In May, Biden led among independents 47% to Trump’s 44%.

Notably, the poll also shows stronger partisan loyalty among Democratic voters than Republican ones.

More than 81% of Democrats polled would vote today for Biden, while 15% support Trump. But less than 78% of Republicans would vote for Trump, and nearly 18% would bubble beside Biden’s name.

That undercuts one of Trump’s most touted assets — the support of his base.

Those results are also markedly different from the May poll, when St. Pete Polls found both candidates enjoying the support of roughly 81% of members of their own party.

Trump still wins among white voters, about 54% of whom would vote to reelect the incumbent compared to 41% who favor Biden. But every other racial demographic breaks against the President, with nearly 87% of Black voters ready to vote for the Democrat.

Biden wins among male voters 49% to Trump’s 46%, and takes the female vote with more than 51% to the Republican’s under 44%.

The only age demographic Trump wins in the poll is voters age 70 and older. Nearly 51% of those voters favor the incumbent, compared to 44% who prefer Biden. That could prove valuable in a state rich with retirees who reliably vote.

The great support for Biden comes out of the Miami media market, while the Panama City market remains Trump country. Biden wins the vital Orlando and Tampa markets along the I-4 corridor, but by narrow margins. In Jacksonville, which continues to prepare to host the Republican Nation Convention, Trump leads Biden by 20 percentage points.

But notable regional findings include Biden leading Trump in the Fort Myers market by 10 percentage points; Southwest Florida normally votes overwhelmingly Republican.

Florida remains the largest battleground state in this year’s presidential election, with 29 electoral votes at stake. Nobody has won the race for President without winning Florida since Bill Clinton in 1992.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


  • PeterH

    July 23, 2020 at 11:48 am

    Trump is behind in every swing state he won in 2016. Additionally, Georgia, Texas and Arizona are currently all in play. The 2018 mid-terms were just a dress rehearsal for the blue tsunami to come in 2020.

    Trump thinks sending in his federal storm troopers to cities will build his support….. but Americans see this as a desperate Hail Mary Pass.

    • Doc Brown

      July 23, 2020 at 4:27 pm

      The Trump experiment needs to come to an end. I voted for him in 2016 and have regretted it time and time again. I am a retired veteran who served 3 tours in Vietnam and was seriously injured during my last tour. I am a registered Independent moderate and take my voting seriously.

      The country needs a president who will behave with dignity and honor of which Trump is severely lacking. Biden will bring the country back on the right track that it has wondered haplessly under Trump’s watch.

      • TpaBay

        July 23, 2020 at 7:54 pm

        Thank you for your service. What a powerful statement. This election feel much bigger than politics and about getting our country back on track. As you said, with dignity.

  • Ocean Joe

    July 23, 2020 at 1:40 pm

    Too bad the 3 stooges: Scott, DeSantis and Rubio wont be on the ballot.

  • John Powell

    July 23, 2020 at 1:40 pm

    “Respondents who stated they were not likely to vote in the election were excluded from the results.”

    Dear stupid monkey fuc*rs that created this poll. People aren’t considered “likely voters” because they say they are… it’s because they have a track record of voting.

    This poll is absolute garbage.

  • Mr Burton

    July 23, 2020 at 1:47 pm

    Still voting Trump

  • PeterH

    July 23, 2020 at 2:36 pm

    New QUINNIPIAC poll released this afternoon shows Biden ahead by 13 percentage points. Republicans should consider Florida a lost cause and stay laser focused on Texas where they might have a chance to win some electoral college votes.

    Trump’s current blanket of Florida television ads negative. Keep it up! LOL

Comments are closed.


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