Poll: Bob Dallari, Lee Constantine with commanding leads headed to Election Day

Incumbent Seminole County Commissioners Bob Dallari and Lee Constantine seem to be locks for the November ballot according to a new poll.

St. Pete Polls surveyed voters in Commission District 1 and District 3, finding both incumbents with double-digit leads.

Dallari faces Longwood Mayor and former WWE wrestler Matt Morgan in the Aug. 18 Republican primary. The poll found Dallari with just over 50% support among GOP primary voters while Morgan tracked at 28%.

The lead expands to 60%-30% among those who have already voted — about a quarter of the 283 respondents. Among those who have yet to vote, Dallari holds a 46-28% lead with 26% undecided.

Dallari leads in every crosstab. He leads 49-27% among men; 51-30% among women; and 53-29% among voters over 70, which make up the bulk of respondents.

In District 3, St. Pete Polls found Constantine with a 48-31% lead over former Longwood Mayor and now-Longwood City Commissioner Ben Paris.

Like his fellow incumbent, a sizable chunk of Constantine’s edge is already locked in. He leads 56-33% among those who’ve already cast a ballot. The split shrinks to 45-29% among those who’ve yet to vote.

Constantine fares best among men and 70-plus voters. He cracks 51% for both demographics.

Paris’ best numbers came from women voters, though he still trailed Constantine 46-36%.

Dallari and Constantine’s strong poll numbers come on the heels of a recent straw poll that indicated each was in for a tough reelection battle — Morgan received 835 votes to Dallari’s 631 while Paris received 696 to Constantine’s 655 in the Oviedo-Winter Springs Regional Chamber of Commerce’s informal measure.

In fundraising, however, both incumbents have a clear lead.

As of Aug. 7, Dallari had raised more than $111,000 for his campaign while Morgan had amassed $82,000. Constantine has raised nearly $225,000 and has $140,000 in the bank while Paris has raised a hair over $50,000.

The St. Pete Polls survey was conducted Aug. 8-9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.