St. Pete Polls latest survey of Florida: Joe Biden 50%, Donald Trump 47%
In polls of recent polling, Joe Biden is staying ahead.

biden trump 1_0
That's outside St. Pete Polls' margin of error - barely

A new St. Pete Polls survey shows Democrat Joe Biden winning nearly half the Florida vote.

The poll, commissioned by Florida Politics and AARP Florida, finds almost 50% would vote for Biden if the election were held today. More than 47% would vote to reelect President Donald Trump. Less than 2% of voters remain undecided, the poll found, and about 2% will vote for a third-party candidate.

That’s a narrow but distinct lead, just outside the pollster’s 1.9% margin of error.

“This poll reinforces two phenomena: the always-closeness of Florida’s electorate and its strong-willed determination to make sure its vote in that contest counts,” said Peter Schorsch, publisher of Florida Politics.

Conducted on Sept. 7 and 8, the poll represents St. Pete Polls’ first post-political conventions results and the the first released after Labor Day.

A peek at crosstabs shows Biden enjoys stronger partisan loyalty than Trump, but only barely. Around 84% of Democrats will vote for their party’s nominee, compared to around 82% of Republicans.

As for independents, almost 50% choose Biden while 46% pick Trump, a more pronounced lead than the state as a whole.

Nearly 57% of White voters favor Trump, while less than 41% plan to vote for Biden. But that’s the only racial demographic to favor the President. Asian and Pacific Islander voters go to Biden 51% to 46%, Hispanic voters break 54% to 42% for the Democrat, and a resounding 87% of Black voters like Biden compared to 9% for Trump.

The GOP President still wins the male vote with 49% to Biden’s 48%, with women choosing Biden more decisively with 51% to Trump’s 46%.

The only age demographic pollsters identify as a Trump bloc are those over age 70, where the President leads with 54% to Biden’s 43%. But more than half of every other group plans to vote for the Democrat.

“However Floridians choose to vote, AARP Florida remains committed to ensuring that voters’ voices are heard in this election,” said Jeff Johnson of AARP Florida.  “It is encouraging to see that voters are staying focused on the integrity of our elections.”

The poll took a close look at how voters feel about issues important to the AARP.

More than 80% of respondents said Social Security stability was more important than cutting payroll taxed for workers or businesses, compared to about 20% who felt providing economic relief to Americans was the priority.

Asked about a list of economic issues most likely to influence their vote, Social Security solvency was the tantamount issue to a significant 54% of voters. The next best performing issue was additional stimulus payments, the top concern for just 15% of voters. Payroll tax relief registered as tops with under 10% of respondents.

The poll also took a close look at how voters plan to cast their ballots in Florida’s General Election.

Fewer voters appear inclined to vote by mail than said the same before the August primary. But trust in Florida’s election results remains high.

The St. Pete Polls survey still finds vote-by-mail to be the choice ballot for Floridians during the pandemic. About 42% of respondents plan to send their vote through the mail. About 32% will use early voting and under 27% will vote on Election Day.

Still, that’s a shift from July, when the same pollster found more than 49% of voters planning to vote by mail, while under 27% anticipated early voting and just around 24% planned to vote at precincts.

About 43% of voters agreed with the statement Trump’s comments suggesting voting by mail leads to fraud “gives me concerns about voting by mail.”

At the same time, there’s less concern about COVID-19 impacting voters who prefer to vote at polls. Just 33% said they were “worried about voting in person due to the fear of catching coronavirus.”

However Florida voters plan to vote, they appear determined to do so. More than 96% of the likely voters said they are “absolutely certain” they will vote in the election, and another nearly 3% are “very likely” to do so.

And an overwhelming majority of voters still have faith in Florida’s election system overall. More than 93% disagreed with a statement that they have “lost trust” in America’s voting system.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


  • Sonja Fitch

    September 9, 2020 at 1:49 pm

    Time to put the goptrump cult sociopath racist sexist liar traitor Trump in the Bunker! Throw away the key and let trump rot! Trump is a complete band total failure!!!! VoteBlue!

  • Babz N Fernandina

    September 9, 2020 at 3:44 pm

    I’m having trouble understanding how anyone at all anywhere in any state in this country would find any reason to vote for Trump. Not just because he is hopelessly corrupt, incompetent, and dishonest, which he certainly is, but also because he is a very weak, inept, and corrupt “leader”.

    And now we have audio proof that he intentionally downplayed the deadly covid virus in order to not create “panic”. REALLY? Most of us were panicking when the death toll began climbing into the thousands and there were shortages of protective supplies, hospital beds, and testing. Now its getting closer to a quarter of a million dead.

    Deaths that Trump could have prevented but obviously intentionally chose to ignore.

  • Justin Wagner

    September 9, 2020 at 5:05 pm

    Fake news fake polls. Trump will steamroll Sleepy Joe in November.

    • James Robert Miles

      September 9, 2020 at 5:40 pm

      With this virus situation, Trump has murdered more people than any other U.S. President in history. Trump knew in February about the virus and chose to sit on his fat a$$ and do NOTHING. Anyone who votes for this monster does not love America and supports a wanna be dictator who is fascist leaning racist who has done nothing but divide the country. He is an egotistical maniac who claims that even before the election that if he DOESN’T win than the election is fixed! He claims that voter fraud is rampant without providing any proof. Trump is in bed with Putin because Putin owns Trump. Trump belongs in jail and not in the Oval office! Provide proof rather than just B.S. that the polls are fake. Your bone spurs dear leader calls dead soldiers losers and suckers an apt description of ANYONE who supports this jackass!

  • Edward Freeman

    September 10, 2020 at 5:00 am

    What? This poll is saying that 47% of my fellow Floridians are so blindingly stupid and/or terminally brainwashed that they would vote for a man who everyone knows is running a continuing criminal organization out of the White House? That can’t be right. Donald Trump is now the leading cause of death in the United States. He is literally robbing the taxpayers of the United States blind. I can’t believe that 47% of Floridians could possibly be that stupid.

    • FL Patriot

      September 10, 2020 at 10:06 pm

      I think you mean Cuomo has killed more people. Check the stats On COVID deaths.

  • Grant

    September 10, 2020 at 8:54 am

    Aww the DemocRATS still believe bullshit polls and believe anything!!! Just tells you how we won last time and will win this time!

  • FL Patriot

    September 10, 2020 at 10:03 pm

    St. Pete voters elected serial turncoat opportunist Charlie Crist to Congress; no one normal in FL cares what the polls in St. Pete say. These people watch CNN and cannot think for themselves.

    Apparently a very slow news day.

    Go Trump!

Comments are closed.


Florida Politics is a statewide, new media platform covering campaigns, elections, government, policy, and lobbying in Florida. This platform and all of its content are owned by Extensive Enterprises Media.

Publisher: Peter Schorsch @PeterSchorschFL

Contributors & reporters: Phil Ammann, Drew Dixon, Roseanne Dunkelberger, A.G. Gancarski, Anne Geggis, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, Cole Pepper, Gray Rohrer, Jesse Scheckner, Christine Sexton, Drew Wilson, and Mike Wright.

Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @PeterSchorschFL
Phone: (727) 642-3162
Address: 204 37th Avenue North #182
St. Petersburg, Florida 33704