Poll: Joe Biden maintain small but dogged lead over Donald Trump in Florida

A plurality don't want the Supreme Court vacancy filled before the inauguration.

Joe Biden still holds a lead in Florida over Donald Trump, according to the latest St. Pete Polls survey.

The latest tracking poll, commissioned by Florida Politics, shows the Democrat scratching at 50%, while the Republican incumbent sits just under 47%. Additionally, fewer than 2% plan to vote third party. Just over 2% of voters remain undecided.

The results show Biden and Trump at almost exactly the same place they were earlier this month. A poll conducted by the outfit on Sept. 7 and 8 also found Biden at just under 50% and Trump at 47%.

That is, Biden still nears that all-important 50% threshold to put the state away. Taken Sept. 22, just 42 days before final ballots get cast, there’s few voters still on the fence, but those will be critical in deciding who gets awarded Florida’s 29 electoral votes.

The same poll also shows a plurality of voters would like to leave a vacancy on the Supreme Court left by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg open until the election wraps. Around 48% of Floridians say the Senate should not confirm anyone to the seat before the inauguration in January, while 45% want action now. Just over 7% remain unsure about the matter.

The survey includes responses from 2,906 likely Florida voters; pollsters report a 1.8% percent margin of error.

Digging into crosstabs, it’s clear most partisan voters have dug in for their own team. Biden wins support from 80% of Democrats and Trump takes 79% of Republicans.

More significantly, Biden leads by 7 percentage points among independents.

This poll shows 56% of Hispanic voters breaking for Biden and just 41% going for Trump, an improvement for the Democrat since the last St. Pete Polls survey. That’s a notably different finding than an Equis poll that set pundits atwitter earlier this month.

The St. Pete Polls survey found Trump leading among White voters by a similar 55% to 41% margin. The President also holds the edge among Asian and Pacific Islander voters, with 51% favoring his reelection and 47% ready to vote for Biden. But all other racial demographics favor Democrats; 84% of Black voters plan to support Biden while just 10% will vote for Trump.

Notably, the latest survey shows Biden winning among male voters for the first time. Around 49% would vote for the Democrat if the election were held today, while 47% would choose Trump. About 50% of women voters plan to vote for the Democrat.

The survey also shows that at this point, the 70-and-older demographic stands as the only age group who wants to give Trump another four years in office. The President leads in the age group with 52% to Biden’s 45%. But the 50-to-69-year-old set goes for Biden 49% to Trump’s 48%, and the under-50 crowd goes decisively to Biden by a 54% to 42% margin.

StPetePolls 2020 State President September22 U5GDL by Jacob Ogles on Scribd


Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at jacobogles@hotmail.com.

One comment

  • Sonja Fitch

    September 23, 2020 at 4:12 pm

    VoteBlue! Vote to protect social security and Medicare! Vote to guarantee pre existing condition coverage! Vote for the American Common Good! Vote Democrat up and down ballot!

Comments are closed.


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