A new St. Pete Polls survey shows Democrat Joe Biden winning nearly half the Florida vote.
The poll, commissioned by Florida Politics and AARP Florida, finds almost 50% would vote for Biden if the election were held today. More than 47% would vote to reelect President Donald Trump. Less than 2% of voters remain undecided, the poll found, and about 2% will vote for a third-party candidate.
That’s a narrow but distinct lead, just outside the pollster’s 1.9% margin of error.
“This poll reinforces two phenomena: the always-closeness of Florida’s electorate and its strong-willed determination to make sure its vote in that contest counts,” said Peter Schorsch, publisher of Florida Politics.
Conducted on Sept. 7 and 8, the poll represents St. Pete Polls’ first post-political conventions results and the the first released after Labor Day.
A peek at crosstabs shows Biden enjoys stronger partisan loyalty than Trump, but only barely. Around 84% of Democrats will vote for their party’s nominee, compared to around 82% of Republicans.
As for independents, almost 50% choose Biden while 46% pick Trump, a more pronounced lead than the state as a whole.
Nearly 57% of White voters favor Trump, while less than 41% plan to vote for Biden. But that’s the only racial demographic to favor the President. Asian and Pacific Islander voters go to Biden 51% to 46%, Hispanic voters break 54% to 42% for the Democrat, and a resounding 87% of Black voters like Biden compared to 9% for Trump.
The GOP President still wins the male vote with 49% to Biden’s 48%, with women choosing Biden more decisively with 51% to Trump’s 46%.
The only age demographic pollsters identify as a Trump bloc are those over age 70, where the President leads with 54% to Biden’s 43%. But more than half of every other group plans to vote for the Democrat.
“However Floridians choose to vote, AARP Florida remains committed to ensuring that voters’ voices are heard in this election,” said Jeff Johnson of AARP Florida. “It is encouraging to see that voters are staying focused on the integrity of our elections.”
The poll took a close look at how voters feel about issues important to the AARP.
More than 80% of respondents said Social Security stability was more important than cutting payroll taxed for workers or businesses, compared to about 20% who felt providing economic relief to Americans was the priority.
Asked about a list of economic issues most likely to influence their vote, Social Security solvency was the tantamount issue to a significant 54% of voters. The next best performing issue was additional stimulus payments, the top concern for just 15% of voters. Payroll tax relief registered as tops with under 10% of respondents.
The poll also took a close look at how voters plan to cast their ballots in Florida’s General Election.
Fewer voters appear inclined to vote by mail than said the same before the August primary. But trust in Florida’s election results remains high.
The St. Pete Polls survey still finds vote-by-mail to be the choice ballot for Floridians during the pandemic. About 42% of respondents plan to send their vote through the mail. About 32% will use early voting and under 27% will vote on Election Day.
Still, that’s a shift from July, when the same pollster found more than 49% of voters planning to vote by mail, while under 27% anticipated early voting and just around 24% planned to vote at precincts.
About 43% of voters agreed with the statement Trump’s comments suggesting voting by mail leads to fraud “gives me concerns about voting by mail.”
At the same time, there’s less concern about COVID-19 impacting voters who prefer to vote at polls. Just 33% said they were “worried about voting in person due to the fear of catching coronavirus.”
However Florida voters plan to vote, they appear determined to do so. More than 96% of the likely voters said they are “absolutely certain” they will vote in the election, and another nearly 3% are “very likely” to do so.
And an overwhelming majority of voters still have faith in Florida’s election system overall. More than 93% disagreed with a statement that they have “lost trust” in America’s voting system.