Evidence abounds that Democrat Joe Biden is surging in Florida, with the latest data point being a poll showing him leading Donald Trump by double digits.
The Quinnipiac poll, which gets a grain-of-salt treatment like no other public survey from close followers of horserace politics in the Sunshine State, shows Biden up over Trump, 51% to 40%. That edge is well outside the margin of error of +/- 2.8%.
Quinnipiac conducted the poll of 1,256 likely voters Oct. 1 – 5.
The 11 point spread is actually down from a previous survey by the same outfit: a July canvass showed Biden up over Trump, 51% to 38%.
The Quinnipiac model assumed a robust turnout of independent voters in the July survey, and the October poll doubled-down on the assumption. Of those polled, 34% self-identified as independent voters, up from 33% in July.
Democrats comprised 30% of the sample, down from 34% in July. Republicans held steady, meanwhile, at 28% of the sample. And likely voters who didn’t know or wouldn’t answer the question comprised the remaining 7%.
In that context, the 11 point Biden lead is driven by a massive lead over Trump with self-identified independent voters. The President is the choice of just 34% of those, with 54% preferring the Democrat.
The survey contends that Biden is doing a better job holding Democrats than Trump is Republicans, but the spread there is within the margin of error.
The President is +79 with Republicans, with 88% backing him and 9% preferring his Democratic challenger.
Biden is +87 with those who identified as Democrats, with 91% supporting him and just 4% backing President Trump’s reelection.
The former Vice President is winning with almost all age cohorts in this survey. Biden is +24 with likely voters under the age of 35, +10 with those 35 to 49 years of age, and +15 with those 65 and over. Trump clings to a two point lead over Biden with voters between 50 and 64 years of age.
The Quinnipiac poll is an outlier, in that it shows a more extreme version of trends from other surveys conducted and disseminated in recent days.