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Mason-Dixon Florida poll: Joe Biden 48%, Donald Trump 45%

6% are undecided.

Another polling outfit shows Joe Biden leading in Florida, but this one shows the Democrat short of 50%.

A poll from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy says 48% of likely Florida voters favor Biden, while 45% back Donald Trump. Another 1% favor a different candidate while 6% remain undecided.

Pollsters classify that as a “narrow lead.” Biden’s advantage falls well within the poll’s 4% margin of error. The results are based on survey responses taken between Oct. 8 and 12.

Biden does a better job holding his base together, with 87% of Democrats supporting him; 84% of Republicans plan to vote for Trump.

The former Vice President also wins 49% of the independent vote, a six-percentage-point advantage over Trump at 43%. In a tightly divided state, that’s the critical bloc that usually determines top-of-ticket winners.

The Republican incumbent wins with men, taking 51% to Biden’s 41%. White voters also favor Trump 56% to 37% for the Democrat.

But Biden wins 55% of the women vote to Trump’s subar 39%. About 86% of Black voters will vote for the Democrat.

Importantly, the poll shows Hispanics breaking for Biden 57% to Trump’s 37%. Trump has worked hard, especially in South Florida, to sway more Spanish-speaking voters his way. In addition to the traditionally Republican Cubano vote, he’s reached out to Venezuelan voters and other groups, while both candidates have wooed Puerto Rican voters.

Trump does hold an edge with voters age 50 and older, a more reliably group in terms of turnout.He’s leading 51% to Biden’s 44% among votes ages 50 to 64, and leads 50% to 41% with voters 65 and older. Biden holds nearly a two-to-one edge with the 18- to 34-year-old set with 62% of the vote to Trump’s 32%, and also leads with votes age 35 to 49 with 51% to Biden’s 41%.

A Mason-Dixon memo noted for the Republican nominee, Florida counts a as a “must-win” state, with virtually any path for the GOP to reach 270 electoral votes requires a win in the Sunshine State.

But as the election wins down, the poll also finds Trump facing a likeability problem in Florida. About 50% have an unfavorable impression while 43% view him favorably, putting his seven points underwater. Meanwhile, 46% have a favorable view of Biden and just 40% view him poorly.

At the same time, Biden running mate Kamala Harris is slightly underwater, with 41% viewing her unfavorably while just 40% like her. Vice President Mike Pence holds the edge there, with 45% seeing him in a favorable light and 39% viewing him negatively.

Written By

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including Florida Politics and Orlando Rising and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. Schorsch is also publisher of INFLUENCE Magazine. For several years, Peter's blog was ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Sonja Fitch

    October 16, 2020 at 6:52 am

    Decide for the common good! Health care and pre existing conditions are on the Line! Seniors and Disabled. Medicare and social security are on the line! The goptrump cult is a Death Cult! Win by killing from immigration to herd immunity(children were the targets)! Facts prove their is a safe way to get back the economy and our daily lives! Vote Democrat up and down ballot ! This is America! FingA!

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Florida Politics is a statewide, new media platform covering campaigns, elections, government, policy, and lobbying in Florida. This platform and all of its content are owned by Extensive Enterprises Media.

Publisher: Peter Schorsch

Contributors & reporters: Phil Ammann, Drew Dixon, Renzo Downey, Rick Flagg, A.G. Gancarski, Joe Henderson, Janelle Irwin, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, Scott Powers, Bob Sparks, Andrew Wilson, and Kelly Hayes.
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