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Florida Influencer Poll: Joe Biden wins White House, but Donald Trump takes Florida

Most expect the vote here to be close.

There’s broad consensus among Florida political insiders that Joe Biden will take the presidential oath of office in January. But the majority of those in the know expect Florida to go red on Election Day.

Florida Politics polled Florida Influencers on what exactly will shake out in Florida on Nov. 3. About 67% of those who responded believe Donald Trump will win Florida’s electoral votes. The remaining 33% see Biden taking the Sunshine State.

It’s notable that the bulk of those offering up an opinion were Republicans; 62% of respondents hold GOP party affiliation, while 33% were Democrats and 5% held no party affiliation.

Despite that high turnout from the right, 62% of those polled predict Biden will be sworn in as America’s next President in a couple months and just 37% believe Trump will begin a second term in the White House. The remaining 1% are Influencers who imagine a contested election that delays any inauguration.

About 45% of Republican Influencers see Biden winning the presidency, as do 94% of Democrats and 71% of independents. That’s notable as just 6% of Democrats see Trump winning the night, compared to 54% of Republicans. Only about 14% of NPAs envision a second term for the sitting President.

“Florida will be close, but as of this poll, Trump has not gotten his [James] Comey surprise,” said one Influencer, recalling the last-minute FBI investigation development many think cost Hillary Clinton the election in 2016.

Most polls show an edge for Biden right now, including the latest St. Pete Polls survey that found Biden with a 2-percentage-point lead in the state.

But the Influencers in Florida Politics’ poll weren’t so bullish for the former Vice President. While about 66% of Democrats see Biden flipping Florida blue, another 35% expect it to stay in Trump’s column.

About 84% of Republicans believe Trump will win the state, including many who doubt he holds onto the Presidency.

“Trump wins Florida because of Joe Gruters,” said an Influencer who believes the Florida GOP state chair can fight the national tide. “If Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin had a Joe Gruters, Trump would have another four years.”

Seventy-one percent of no-party Influencers see the state staying red in November. Only 29% believe Biden will take Florida.

But why just pick a winner when you can place bets on the spread?

The vast majority of the group, regardless of the polls, expect a close race. A full 60% of Influencers see Trump winning between 47% to 49%. That includes 67% of Democrats, 57% of NPAs and 56% of Republicans asked.

Only 14% of Influencers see Trump clocking in less, including 29% of NPAs, 19% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans. Meanwhile, 27% see him getting more, including 34% of Republicans, 14% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans. Just 5% of Influencers expect the President to get greater than 51.5% of the vote.


The Influencers who took part in this survey: Tom Alte, Phil Ammann, Roger Austin, Geoffrey Becker, Wayne Bertsch, Amanda Bevis, Alexandria Bickley, Taylor Biehl, Barney Bishop III, Samantha Blair, Katie Bohnett, Ron Book, Lydia Claire Brooks, Reggie Cardozo, James Chan, Brad Coker, Rachel Cone, Kevin Craig, Husein Cumber, Jim Daughton, Claudia Davant, Juan Del Cerro, Nelson Diaz Pablo Diaz, Andrew Dolberg, Charles Dudley, Ryan Duffy, Pete Dunbar, Barry Edwards, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Matt Florell, Shawn Foster, Towson Fraser, Fred Karlinsky, Don Gaetz, Steve Geller, Pamela Goodman, Jennifer Green, Marion Hammer, Abel Harding, Jeff Hartley, Cynthia Henderson, Brad Herold, Madeline Holzmann, Jim Horne, Haleigh Hutchison, Yolanda Jackson, Nick Janovsky, Eric Johnson, Christina Johnson, Stafford Jones, Todd Josko, Eric Jotkoff, Micah Ketchel, Colin Kirkland, Jeff Kottkamp, Jackie Lee, Beth Lerner, Mckinley Lewis, Karis Lockhart, John Lux, Jesse, Manzano, Tracy Mayernick, Frank Mayernick, Clarence McKee, Kathy Mears, Ed Moore, Tim Nungesser, Sal Nuzzo, Meredith O’Rourke, Rick Oppenheim, Alex Patton, Anthony Pedicini, Juan Penalosa, Sean Phillippi, Ron Pierce, Cissy Proctor, Bert Ralston, Foyt Ralston, David Ramba, Emmett Reed, Marc Reichelderfer, Darren Richards, Sydney Ridley, Jim Rimes, Evan Ross, Scott Ross, Evan Ross, Ashley Ross, Preston Rudie, Elnatan Rudolph, Ron Sachs, Meagan Salisbury, Jack Seiler, Dave Shepp, Stephen Shiver, Steve Simeonidis, Alex Sink, Patrick Slevin, John Stemberger, Herbie Thiele, Cory Tilley, Kyle Ulrich, Steven Vancore, Claire VanSusteren, Ashley Walker, Nancy Watkins, Screven Watson, Christian Weiss, Doug Wheeler, Susie Wiles, Gregory Wilson, Christian Ziegler.

Written By

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at

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Florida Politics is a statewide, new media platform covering campaigns, elections, government, policy, and lobbying in Florida. This platform and all of its content are owned by Extensive Enterprises Media.

Publisher: Peter Schorsch

Contributors & reporters: Phil Ammann, Drew Dixon, Renzo Downey, Rick Flagg, A.G. Gancarski, Joe Henderson, Janelle Irwin, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, Scott Powers, Bob Sparks, Andrew Wilson, and Kelly Hayes.
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