Will a series of controversial amendments to Florida’s Constitution pass this November? Let’s just say if it depended on winning over 60% of respondents to Florida Politics’ Influencer poll, no changes would go through.
Granted, those in the know were asked to guess if voters will pass Amendments 1, 2, 3 and 4.
The measure that the greatest number of Influencers expect to pass will be the first on the ballot. An amendment requiring U.S. citizenship to vote in Florida elections will most likely meet the 60% threshold in November in order to enshrine the policy in the Constitution. About 65% of Influencers expect a yes on 1, including 71% of Republicans and 60% of Democrats. But notably, 86% of no-party-affiliation respondents expect the measure to go down at the polls.
As for Amendment 2, which would phase in a $15 minimum wage in Florida, Influencers were less bullish, but 54% still expect voters to pass the measure. That included every NPA participating in the poll, along with 73% of Democrats. But 69% of Republicans see the fight for $15 going out in a whimper with the amendment failing to win over a required supermajority of voters.
“Minimum Wage will barely make it and it will be economically harmful to the state because it will hit the small businesses, retail and fast food chains the most,” said one Influencer, who isn’t keen on the proposal but thinks voters will say yes. “The Minimum Wage is for people with no job skills — first-time workers, not for people who have a work history — but it is a difficult proposition to defeat in these tough times.”
As for the election overhauling All Voters Vote measure, Amendment 3, only about 23% of Influencers believe the measure has a chance of passage. All NPAs who weighed in predicted the so-called jungle primary amendment will get sent to the woods, as did 94% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans.
“Even educated voters don’t understand that Amendment 3 creates a jungle primary, not a normal open primary,” one Influencer said.
And another said there has been enough unified criticism to kill the idea.
“All Voters Vote is too confusing, the respective major political parties oppose it, African Americans have finally awoken to realize it could hurt their electoral chances and with the new opposition (they supported it initially in this campaign) of the NAACP and the ACLU support and the vociferous opposition from A-A leaders this will go down in defeat,” the Influencer suggested.
There’s little faith that Amendment 4, the Keep Our Constitution Clean proposal to require all amendments to be passed by voters twice, can even win voters over the first time. Only 27% of Influencers think it will become part of the constitution itself, while 73% see it being rejected by voters. That includes 60% of Republicans and 92% of Democrats. And independent Influencers, as they did for every single ballot measure, unanimously predict voters to reject any proposed change.
“Amendment 4 is the most anti-citizen thing I can recall the Legislature putting on the ballot,” one Influencer said. “The fact that there hasn’t been a real campaign against it is awful.”
Another felt less apprehension about the proposal but saw little chance it goes through.
“Though making constitutional amendments have to pass twice is a good idea, it will need another amendment campaign to get citizens to accept the idea,” that Influencer said. “Not enough political support from groups and politicians for it to pass this first time.”
The Influencers who took part in this survey: Tom Alte, Phil Ammann, Roger Austin, Geoffrey Becker, Wayne Bertsch, Amanda Bevis, Alexandria Bickley, Taylor Biehl, Barney Bishop III, Samantha Blair, Katie Bohnett, Ron Book, Lydia Claire Brooks, Reggie Cardozo, James Chan, Brad Coker, Rachel Cone, Kevin Craig, Husein Cumber, Jim Daughton, Claudia Davant, Juan Del Cerro, Nelson Diaz Pablo Diaz, Andrew Dolberg, Charles Dudley, Ryan Duffy, Pete Dunbar, Barry Edwards, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Matt Florell, Shawn Foster, Towson Fraser, Fred Karlinsky, Don Gaetz, Steve Geller, Pamela Goodman, Jennifer Green, Marion Hammer, Abel Harding, Jeff Hartley, Cynthia Henderson, Brad Herold, Madeline Holzmann, Jim Horne, Haleigh Hutchison, Yolanda Jackson, Nick Janovsky, Eric Johnson, Christina Johnson, Stafford Jones, Todd Josko, Eric Jotkoff, Micah Ketchel, Colin Kirkland, Jeff Kottkamp, Jackie Lee, Beth Lerner, Mckinley Lewis, Karis Lockhart, John Lux, Jesse, Manzano, Tracy Mayernick, Frank Mayernick, Clarence McKee, Kathy Mears, Ed Moore, Tim Nungesser, Sal Nuzzo, Meredith O’Rourke, Rick Oppenheim, Alex Patton, Anthony Pedicini, Juan Penalosa, Sean Phillippi, Ron Pierce, Cissy Proctor, Bert Ralston, Foyt Ralston, David Ramba, Emmett Reed, Marc Reichelderfer, Darren Richards, Sydney Ridley, Jim Rimes, Evan Ross, Scott Ross, Evan Ross, Ashley Ross, Preston Rudie, Elnatan Rudolph, Ron Sachs, Meagan Salisbury, Jack Seiler, Dave Shepp, Stephen Shiver, Steve Simeonidis, Alex Sink, Patrick Slevin, John Stemberger, Herbie Thiele, Cory Tilley, Kyle Ulrich, Steven Vancore, Claire VanSusteren, Ashley Walker, Nancy Watkins, Screven Watson, Christian Weiss, Doug Wheeler, Susie Wiles, Gregory Wilson, Christian Ziegler.