Joe Biden 50%, Donald Trump 48% in fresh Florida poll

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Yet another poll shows Democrat Joe Biden ahead of President Donald Trump in Florida.

Yet another poll shows Democrat Joe Biden ahead of President Donald Trump in Florida.

A new survey from the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative shows Biden as the choice of 50% of those polled, and Trump 48%.

That lead is well inside the margin of error of +/- 3.1%, offering more evidence, should it be needed, of a potentially contentious Election Night in Florida.

The two point Biden lead is half of what it was in the pollsters findings earlier in October. The same outfit showed Trump tied with the former Vice President in September.

Those polled by FAU BEPI for this survey, conducted Oct. 24 and Oct. 25, mirrored Trump’s Florida lead in 2016, with 1.3% more of those polled saying they voted for Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton.

The most recent voter pool leaned Democratic. Of those polled, 37% were Democrats, 36% Republicans, and the balance NPA or third party, a sample that represents Florida’s electorate.

There is some room for movement: of the 937 likely Sunshine State voters who responded to the survey, 2.5% told pollsters they were undecided, and 6% more could change their minds.

“It is a very close race, and any movement in the upcoming week can swing the results in either candidate’s favor,” said Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., director of FAU BEPI.

That is true, to a point.

The same poll suggests that voters, especially Democrats, are coming home in massive numbers. A full 98% of Democratic likely voters expressed intent to vote for Biden. Trump is the choice of 93% of Republicans surveyed.

Ultimately, both campaigns are making aggressive turnout plays, said political science professor Kevin Wagner.

“With less than 3% undecided, the election in Florida is going to be less about persuasion and far more about turnout,” he said. “With Joe Biden holding a 12-point lead among Floridians who have already voted, Donald Trump will need a strong turnout this week and on Election Day to carry Florida.”

The Biden lead with voters who have already turned in ballots is down from some other polls during this period, a function of early voting allowing Republicans to cut into prohibitive Democratic advantages in vote by mail. Democrats, as of Tuesday morning, have roughly a 300,000 vote lead.

President Trump, who has visited Florida much more frequently than his Democratic opponent, is confident that he will close strong.

“I hear we’re doing very well in Florida and everywhere else,” Trump said in West Palm Beach Saturday.

The President has said in recent days that some public polls are “suppression polls,” designed to discourage his voters from turning out.

Officials from the campaign likewise expressed confidence in its Florida position Monday on a call with media.

Campaign manager Bill Stepien suggested that Democrats would fail to convert mail ballot requests into actual votes, saying the Biden camp was “leaving ballots on the kitchen table.”

Trump surrogates, meanwhile, continue to cast aspersions at what they perceive as a lack of “ground game” in Florida from the Biden camp.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has been a correspondent for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. In 2018, he was a finalist for an Association of Alternative Newsweeklies "best political column." He can be reached at [email protected]


3 comments

  • Ocean Joe

    October 27, 2020 at 11:09 am

    If Biden wins, how will he ever get that swamp stank out of the White House?

  • Sonja Fitch

    October 27, 2020 at 11:17 am

    Casting aspersions! Lol! Trump lies are kicking him in the ass!!!!!’ Trump and his goptrump DEATH cult groupies DeSantis And Gaetz are a joke! A joke that folks in Florida shall not stay in power! Gaetz is so far off from being a conservative! Gaetz Is an embarrassment to the folks in the Panhandle ! Desantis is just plain old stupid and incompetent! Vote Democrat up and down ballot for the common good!

  • Frankie M.

    October 27, 2020 at 8:25 pm

    If Biden is good enough for house painter Frank Sheeran then he’s good enough for me. I’m ridin with Biden baby! #law&order

    The only thing I can’t figure out is why it’s so close in Florida. Record turnout helps Biden & dems more than Trump.

Comments are closed.


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