Last Call for 11.2.20 — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics

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A digest of the day's politics and policy while the bartender refreshes your drink.

Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

With just over a day until the polls close, BoyleSports says Joe Biden is the odds-on favorite to win the presidency.

The Irish oddsmaker gives the former Vice President 1/2 odds to win, which is equivalent to a two-thirds chance. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is sitting at 13/8 odds, or about a 38% chance to win another term.

Among the most surefire bets is that Biden will win the popular vote. He currently has 1/8 odds of getting more votes than Trump and 4/6 odds of earning between 52% and 58% of the vote.

Of course, the popular vote won’t decide the election — the Electoral College will. Biden’s most likely electoral college vote haul is rated to fall between 300-359 at 2/1, which would be more than enough to end Trump’s reign as President. Trump meanwhile is an odds-on 5/6 to fall short with less than 210 electoral college votes.

Biden’s edge is reflected in his hot chances to win some of the crucial battleground states with Michigan (2/9), North Carolina (8/11), Pennsylvania (4/9), and Wisconsin (2/9) all odds-on to go his way. Florida, however, is a tossup.

“Donald Trump did close the gap in the race in the last fortnight, but Biden was still being favoured as the winner at 1/2 from 8/15 the day before the election, and some of the stats markets suggest he may even have a bit of a cushion,” BoyleSports spox Lawrence Lyons said.

“But we’re certainly not making any assumptions after the odds were upset four years ago, and it must be said that bets have been a bit more evenly divided this time round with Trump still receiving plenty of support at 13/8.”

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Americans for Prosperity-Florida is spending the closing hours of election season urging Floridians to vote no on Amendment 2.

The amendment would raise the state’s minimum wage to $10 next year and then by $1 each year until it hits $15 in 2026. After that, it would go back to being tied to inflation, as it currently is.

AFP-FL says the increase would put jobs, workers and the economic recovery at risk. It’s putting six figures into a digital ad campaign spreading that message to Florida voters.

The group’s video ad recounts the story of a woman who was a bartender in Seattle “until they raised the minimum wage,” forcing her to move to Florida. If Amendment 2 passes, she says she may have to move somewhere else to make ends meet.

AFP-FL points to a study conducted by economists at Miami University (Ohio), and Trinity University that predicts Amendment 2 will cost Florida at least 158,000 jobs.

“The last thing our businesses, workers, and families need are fewer jobs, less opportunity, and reduced growth. But that is exactly what they will get with Amendment 2. As we try to get our economy booming again, imposing a one-size-fits-all wage on small businesses would be devastating for employers who are struggling to keep their doors open,” said AFP-FL state director Skylar Zander.

“Now, more than ever, we need to make it easier for people to work and retain their jobs — not create barriers to work. We are talking with Floridians across the state about the reduced wages, decreased hours, and fewer jobs Amendment 2 would cause. The more people learn about the actual impact this proposed constitutional amendment would have on our state, the more people are rejecting this attempt to cut the bottom rungs off the economic ladder.”

So far, Americans for Prosperity has contacted more than a million Floridians about the ballot initiative and reached a million more through the previous digital ad campaign.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

Coronavirus Numbers

Positive cases:

— 801,371 FL residents (+4,569 since Sunday)

— 10,692 Non-FL residents (+82 since Sunday)

Origin:

— 7,270 Travel related

— 303,813 Contact with a confirmed case

— 8,051 Both

— 482,237 Under investigation

Hospitalizations:

— 49,485 in FL

Deaths:

— 17,043 in FL

Evening Reads

I’m here to remind you that Donald Trump can still win” via Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight

Exit polls can be misleading — especially this year” via Laura Bronner and Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight.com

My predictions for the 2020 presidential and congressional races” via Henry Olson of The Washington Post

POLITICO’s final Election Forecast: Joe Biden in command, Senate up for grabs” via Steven Shepard of POLITICO

Biden campaign: ‘Under no scenario’ will Trump he declared a winner on election night.” via The New York Times

‘You are no longer my mother’: How the election is dividing American families” via Tim Reid, Gabriella Borter, Michael Martina of Reuters

‘A stone-cold up-and-down referendum on Trump’: Will Florida voters kick him out or pick Biden?” via Michael Moline of The Florida Phoenix

5 things to watch for on Election Day in Florida” via Zac Anderson of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune

Democrats widen their early-vote lead over Republicans in Florida” via Patricia Mazzei of the New York Times

Ron DeSantis: Joe Biden would defer to Kamala Harris and Marxism” via Renzo Downey of Florida Politics

’We love what they did’: Marco Rubio praises Texas Donald Trump fan caravan that swarmed Biden bus” via Pilar Melendez of The Daily Beast

“The 2 big bets that will decide Florida” via Marc Caputo of POLITICO

Celebrities spent millions of Florida felons can vote. Will it make a difference?” via Lawrence Mower and Langston Taylor of the Tampa Bay Times

Rick Scott ‘absolutely’ expects Florida results Tuesday night” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

U.S. Department of Justice sending election monitors to Duval County” via Andrew Pantazi of the Florida Times-Union

Chuck Todd’s dive into the 2000 election made him wonder if America can handle that chaos again” via Steve Contorno of the Tampa Bay Times

Darren Soto, the folk-singing Biden supporter” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics

Man thought people were stealing Trump signs; three shot” via Tim Hrenchir of The Topeka Capital-Journal

Quote of the Day

“In the event there’s a Biden presidency, our firm will evolve. It’s not about who’s in the White House.” — Ballard Partners founder Brian Ballard, on the possibility of a Biden victory.

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