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Presidential

Poll finds Florida tied, Donald Trump winning Hispanic vote

Democrats fear a Trump over-performance among Hispanic voters.

In another sign Florida’s vote has tightened as Election Day nears, an AtlasIntel poll shows Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied at 49% each.

Most significant, the poll finds Trump leading among Hispanic voters, a demographic that could decide where Florida’s electoral votes go this year.

Trump wins 52% of the vote among White voters, compared to 45% who support Biden. About 81% of Black voters plan to vote for the Democrat, while 19% will vote Trump, fairly solid performance for a Republican.

More troubling for Democrats, the poll found 52% of Hispanic voters in the state ready to vote for Trump and just 42% picking Biden. This comes as Democrats increasingly fret better GOP turnout margins than expected in critical Miami-Dade County and signs the Cuban vote, always a more Republican-friendly demographic, leans increasingly toward Trump’s Republican Party.

The poll found very different stories based on household income and a variety of other factors.

The poll of likely voters, conducted Oct. 28 and 29, found a tight race in the Sunshine State. Among the 786 likely voters included, 48.6% favor Biden and 48.5% prefer Trump, an insignificant difference that’s far lower than the survey’s 3% margin of error. Close to 3% of responses were listed as undecided.

Notably, the poll found 12% of voters who voted for Trump in 2016 now plan to vote for Biden. But that’s more than offset by the fact 14% of voters who went for Democrat Hillary Clinton four years ago now favor the President’s reelection.

Independents break 56% for Biden and 35% for Trump. Meanwhile Biden holds 90% of the Democratic vote while Trump keeps just 85% of Republicans.

The poll found that among households earning more than $100,000 per year, 60% of voters favor Trump staying in the White House for another four years. But the lower income voters report, the more likely they are to favor change. Among voters earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year, only 58% want Trump to remain in power.

Most striking, among voters pulling in less than $50,000, 58% support Biden.

Trump doesn’t fare well in job approval ratings within the state, with 51% feeling unsatisfied with the job he’s doing as President, more than the 48% who approve. Again, the lower voters’ income, the less likely they are to give Trump high marks as President.

Written By

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at jacobogles@hotmail.com.

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