Republican former Rep. Jason Brodeur‘s onslaught of attack advertising against Democratic Senate District 9 candidate Patricia Sigman may have won him a point or two but she’s still winning, a new poll shows.
The new survey from St. Pete Polls shows Sigman leading Brodeur 49% to 42%. Independent candidate Jestine Iannotti draws 2%.
The same poll shows Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump 53% to 45% in the district.
The poll also shows Gov. Ron DeSantis‘ job approval under water, with 45% of likely voters in SD 9 approving of the Republican’s first two years in office, and 48% disapproving.
The combined results should be troubling to Republicans. SD 9 may be the archetype of suburban districts in Florida, so the findings could suggest the Republicans’ longtime sure hold on suburbia may be gone. SD 9 covers Seminole County and parts of southern Volusia County.
SD 9 has long been dominated by Republicans, until recently. Now Democrats are pouring efforts and resources into Seminole County, trying to flip SD 9 and almost everything else there, counting on the evolution of the suburbs away from the Trump-led GOP.
The poll shows Sigman’s lead in SD 9 has slipped from the 9-point advantage shown the last time St. Pete Polls surveyed the district, in mid-October. That poll was run Oct. 17-18. The new one was run Saturday and Sunday.
In between, Brodeur, who amassed campaign funds of more than $1 million, has inundated Orlando-area TV and digital platforms with advertising, as has the Republican Party of Florida. Some of the messages praised Brodeur’s positions on things like charter schools, but most sought to paint Sigman as a radical. Among the more curious attack points: that she has the support of Democratic former President Barack Obama, who endorsed Sigman and whose popularity remains overwhelming in African American communities.
The latest poll shows Sigman likely will be up big early Tuesday evening as the mail ballots and early-voting ballots are tabulated and reported. Among voters who already had cast ballots, she leads Brodeur 55% to 38%. He’ll be making a late-evening comeback attempt as Election Day ballots are counted. Among those who told pollsters they hadn’t yet voted but intended to, he leads 64% to 19%, with a sizable proportion, 18%, still undecided.
But 85% of those SD 9 voters surveyed said they already had voted.
The same pattern was shown for Biden over Trump in early voters, and Trump over Biden among those yet to vote.
St. Pete Polls used automated telephone calls to reach 522 likely voters in SD 9. The margin of error was 4%.
Sigman polled well among independent voters, leading Brodeur 52% to 39%. She also showed more support from party members than he’s receiving. She leads among Democrats, 80% to 9% for Brodeur. He leads among Republicans, 73% to 19% for her.
The Republican Party of Florida’s use of Obama as a boogieman symbol in attack ads against Sigman may have all but conceded Black votes in SD 9. In the St. Pete Polls survey, Brodeur actually polled worse among African American voters than the independent candidate, Iannotti. Sigman drew 86% of the African American vote in the poll; Iannoti is favored by 5%; and Brodeur, just 2%.
Brodeur leads among White voters with 47% to Sigman’s 44%. She leads among Hispanic voters with 60% to his 32%.
Brodeur is doing better than Trump among SD 9’s Black voters, but only because the bar is so low.
Trump polled zero among African Americans in the district. Biden got 95%, and the remaining surveyed Black voters either were undecided or going with third parties.
Trump leads 51% to 48% over Biden among White voters in SD 9. Biden leads among Hispanic voters at 68% to 32%.
DeSantis’ approval ratings followed the same demographic patterns as the voting preferences for Trump and Brodeur.