Gainesville Democrat Kayser Enneking is in a dead heat with Republican Rep. Chuck Clemons in the race for House District 21.
A new St. Pete Polls survey shows Enneking leads the incumbent by 0.4 percentage points — 45.6%-45.2% — though most of her lead is already in the bank.
About five out of six HD 21 voters said they have already voted, and among that crowd Enneking leads Clemons by 9 percentage points, 50% to 41%.
However, Clemons holds a commanding lead among the 17% of respondents who have not yet voted. A full 69% said they will back Clemons, while just 23% of those who haven’t voted plan to cast a ballot for Enneking.
That leaves about 9% undecided, which is plenty enough to sway the election in either candidate’s favor.
Clemons leads among White voters 52%-40%, though he loses every other demographic by a wide margin. Black voters prefer Enneking 81%-6%; Asian voters prefer her 81%-13%; and Hispanic voters prefer her 50%-33%.
Notably, the state House race remains close despite a wider margin in the presidential race. HD 21 voters prefer Democrat Joe Biden over Republican President Donald Trump by nearly 6 percentage points, 51.3%-45.5%.
Also of note, Trump pulls about 13% of Democratic voters in the district while Biden pulls about 12% of Republicans. Among independents, Biden leads 60%-34%.
Gov. Ron DeSantis’ approval rating closely mirrors the state House contest, with the Governor underwater by about 0.4%. Likewise, those who have already voted disapprove of the Governor 50%-43% while those yet to vote approve of him 61%-23% with 16% undecided.
HD 21 has been held by a Republican since redistricting, though Florida Democrats believe they can complete the flip in 2020.
Clemons took over the district in 2016 from now-Sen. Keith Perry with a 7-point win. He followed up with 3-point win over Democrat Jason Haeseler the 2018 cycle, however the seat went for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum at the top of the ticket.
HD 21 covers all of Dixie and Gilchrist counties as well as part of western Alachua County, including much of Gainesville.
The St. Pete Polls survey queried 419 likely voters Oct. 31-Nov. 1. It has a 4.8% margin of error at a 95% confidence level.