With hospitalizations still rising, Broward and Miami-Dade may be seeing COVID-19 positivity rates level off

Image via AP.

South Florida’s tri-county area recorded 3,363 new COVID-19 cases in Tuesday’s report from the Department of Health. That puts the region above 430,000 confirmed cases since the outbreak began.

Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties have all seen week-to-week increases in average daily deaths, newly-confirmed cases and the rate of tests coming back positive.

But a closer look at the last few days of data shows the positivity rate may be leveling off in Miami-Dade and Broward County. The data are less clear in Palm Beach.

Looking at five-day samples, the positivity rate in Miami-Dade ranged from 9.5%-10.4% from Nov. 28-Dec. 2. In the past five days — Dec. 3-7 — that rate has fluctuated between 7.8%-8.6%.

Broward hasn’t seen as clear a distinction in those five-day spans. But from Nov. 29-Dec. 2, Broward’s positivity rate sat at 7.99% or higher in three out of four days.

In the five days since, it’s topped out at 7.61% and was below 7% in Tuesday’s report.

Those daily numbers can be volatile, which is why experts suggest looking at longer trends, such as week-to-week comparisons. Those week-to-week comparisons still show an increase in both counties. However, that will soon change if those numbers drop going forward.

One big problem is that health experts are warning that current data are still not capturing the post-Thanksgiving surge. Dr. Anthony Fauci recently said that full surge may not be seen until later this week or next week. While recent reports have shown potentially positive trends in Broward and Miami-Dade, that may not last.

Palm Beach hasn’t seen clear signals that the virus’s spread is slowing. Tuesday’s report saw the positivity rate eclipse 8%. It’s only the third time that’s happened in the last two weeks, and the first since Dec. 1. The positivity rate has increased each of the last three days in Palm Beach.

Average daily deaths are still up week-to-week in all three counties. The same is true for hospitalizations in Miami-Dade and Broward, while that number remained steady in Palm Beach.

Here are some of the weekly numbers for the previous three weeks throughout the South Florida tri-county area:

Miami-Dade

— Nov. 17-23: 12 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 9 newly-reported deaths per day, 1,780 new confirmed cases per day, 8.2% positivity rate

— Nov. 24-30: 16 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 7 newly-reported deaths per day, 1,890 new confirmed cases per day, 8.3% positivity rate

— Dec. 1-7: 22 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 12 newly-reported deaths per day, 2,107 new confirmed cases per day, 8.6% positivity rate

Broward

— Nov. 17-23: 21 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 5 newly-reported deaths per day, 839 new confirmed cases per day, 7% positivity rate

— Nov. 24-30: 20 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 5 newly-reported deaths per day, 803 new confirmed cases per day, 6.9% positivity rate

— Dec. 1-7: 23 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 7 newly-reported deaths per day, 977 new confirmed cases per day, 7.6% positivity rate

Palm Beach

— Nov. 17-23: 14 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 4 newly-reported deaths per day, 494 new confirmed cases per day, 6.9% positivity rate

— Nov. 24-30: 13 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 5 newly-reported deaths per day, 450 new confirmed cases per day, 6.6% positivity rate

— Dec. 1-7: 13 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 6 newly-reported deaths per day, 534 new confirmed cases per day, 7.2% positivity rate

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Editor’s note on methodology: The Florida Department of Health releases new data every morning around 10:45 a.m. The total number reported in those daily reports include the previous day’s totals as well as the most up to date data as of about 9:30 a.m.

Florida Politics uses the report-over-report increase to document the number of new cases each day because it represents the most up-to-date data available. Some of the more specific data, including positivity rates and demographics, considers a different data set that includes only cases reported the previous day.

This is important to note because the DOH report lists different daily totals than our methodology to show day-over-day trends. Their numbers do not include non-residents who tested positive in the state and they only include single-day data, therefore some data in the DOH report may appear lower than what we report.

Our methodology was established based on careful consideration among our editorial staff to capture both the most recent and accurate trends.