Peter Schorsch
Nearly two weeks after Election Day I reveled in the fact that President Donald Trump supporters were still wagering actual money on a second term despite every major media outlet calling the election for former Vice President Joe Biden.
Over this past weekend, that finally changed … mostly. The shift comes on the eve of the Electoral College vote that will secure Biden’s position as President-elect.
The prediction market, PredictIt, shows shares for Trump losing any state he won in 2016 up to 97 cents. While that means what amounts to basically 3 percent of betters are banking on the President NOT losing any of those states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Georgia,) it’s far fewer than were betting on the President nearly one month ago.
On November 20, shares for Trump winning any state he lost in 2016 sat at 13 cents. In the combo market including Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, trading was at 16 cents for Trump winning any of the three. It’s now down to 6 cents.
Another combo market that was in double digits Nov. 20, Pennsylvania, Arizona or Georgia, is now trading at 6 cents for a Trump win. For just Wisconsin, betting on the current President is now down to 5 cents.
On the question of whether a woman will become the next President of the United States, trading is now at 94 cents for yes and just 6 cents for no. Sen. Kamala Harris is set to become the next Vice President, succeeding Mike Pence, on Jan. 20.
While these metrics, and there are other similar examples on PredictIt’s market, are not exclusive to a Biden inauguration next month, they show something the President himself might want to take notice — he lost.
Nearly one month ago, Trump supporters were waging their own money on an election that was already determined. They bought so heavily into Trump’s rhetoric about a fraudulent election and a wrong that would be righted, they were willing to bet their own money that their candidate’s pipe dream would come true.
It hasn’t.
There were two major Supreme Court decisions within a week ago, dashing even last ditch attempts at overturning the results. The latest decision, on Friday night. Rejected a lawsuit out of Texas seeking to overturn results in four states Biden won. There’s nothing left for the President and his legal team and various acolytes to do. Their goose is cooked. It already was.
But yet even as of Sunday morning, again, the day before the Electoral College counts its votes, Trump is still not letting go.
“MOST CORRUPT ELECTION IN U.S. HISTORY!” He tweeted.
On Fox News Sunday morning, he called a Biden presidency “illegitimate” and again claimed Biden had “lost badly” (he didn’t.)
On the same day he tweeted, “How do states and politicians confirm an election where corruption and irregularities are documented throughout?” He answered his own query: “A Swing State hustle!”
The day before he chimed in on Friday’s SCOTUS decision, on Twitter of course.
“The Supreme Court had ZERO interest in the merits of the greatest voter fraud every perpetuated on the United States of America. All they were interested in is ‘standing,’ which makes it very difficult for the President to present a case on the merits. 75,000,000 votes!”
A: Three Supreme Court Justices are Trump appointees.
B: Trump did not receive 75 million votes, even if rounding his popular vote total. The actual number is 74,223,755, more than 7 million votes fewer than Biden.
So the message to Trump should be clear: The jig is up. You lost. Get over it.
Whether Trump still legitimately believes, or ever did, that there was enough voter fraud to skew the election to Biden is unclear. He might. Or maybe he tells himself that because it dulls the pain of losing, badly.
Or maybe it’s something else entirely.
We already know Trump is mulling an election re-do in 2024. By continuing to push baseless, debunked and democracy damning accusations about voter fraud, Trump is stringing along his base. He’s giving them anger to latch onto for the next four years to delegitimize Biden’s term and strengthen his comeback tour in what will be less than three years if he indeed does run again.
The prediction market shows the game is over, this time. But it also shows 2024 still as some stragglers from which Trump could, and would, build.
One comment
Palmer Tom
December 13, 2020 at 6:16 pm
Good for the Kiwis
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